Why we have been fallacious on the Chiefs, Colts, Jaguars, Payments

For those who're certain about something within the NFL, simply wait just a few weeks. Heck, when you have been certain about something from Week 7's Giants-Broncos sport, ready just a few minutes appeared to work simply as properly.

After six months of ready for the NFL to return over the offseason, what we see within the first few weeks of motion feels stickier and extra significant than anything, and we kind opinions shortly.

After all, we must always know that what occurs in September would not at all times imply very a lot by the point we get to the postseason. Patrick Mahomes trying like a celebrity within the first few weeks of the 2018 season? Essential. The Eagles hitting their bye at 2-2 a 12 months in the past after dropping to the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons and getting blown out by the Bucs? Nope. Philly casually went 16-1 the remainder of the best way, successful by a mean of practically two touchdowns per contest.

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Everybody has their opinions and emotions about what we noticed over the primary month of the 2025 season. What number of of these ideas really ring true as we hit the center of October? Some issues that appeared apparent or vital have pale into the September void, whereas different opinions solely really feel like they've solidified.

Right now, let's run by 4 of these September ideas and see how Week 7 impacted what we knew — or thought we knew — about a few of the NFL's most fascinating groups.

Bounce to a September take:
The Chiefs' offense was damaged
The Jaguars' protection might assist the offense
The Colts' offense would regress
The Payments would have a transparent path within the AFC

What we stated in September: “This offense is damaged.”

Nicely, it was. The Chiefs regarded like a multitude by their 0-2 begin, and whereas they acquired their season again on monitor with a 22-9 victory over the Giants in Week 3, the offense nonetheless felt nearly completely dependent upon Mahomes scrambles and out-of-structure magic. We knew issues have been going to be at the least a bit of higher as soon as Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice returned to the fold, however the Chiefs regarded like they have been going to battle to stay as much as even the 2023 and 2024 editions of their offense, not to mention the halcyon days when Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have been at their peaks.

Over the previous 4 weeks? The Chiefs are fourth in EPA per play, a determine which rises to first after we take away rubbish time (these performs during which one group's probabilities of successful are under 10%) from the equation. They're second in factors scored per drive. And if we once more take away rubbish time drives, the Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 56% of their possessions because the begin of Week 4. The league common is 26%.

With Rice returning to the lineup for the primary time in over a 12 months Sunday after a knee harm and six-game suspension, the Chiefs lastly acquired to area the first-string offense that they had been ready to unveil because the begin of 2024. Rice, Worthy and Hollywood Brown have been within the lineup collectively for the primary time. Outdoors of rookie left deal with Josh Simmons, who's away from the group coping with a private matter, the Chiefs had everybody on their offensive depth chart out there towards the Raiders.

The outcomes have been dramatic. Even whereas sitting Mahomes for all the fourth quarter, the Chiefs scored 31 factors and racked up 30 first downs. The Raiders ran solely 30 performs, the second fewest by any group in a sport since the 1970 merger. The Chiefs averaged 0.38 EPA per play with Mahomes on the sector; that is the very best their offense has carried out with Mahomes on the sector in a regular-season sport since Week 3 of the 2023 season. And this was the ninth-most-productive regular-season efficiency of the Mahomes period by that metric.

All of the sudden, the Chiefs' offense is prospering. And whereas it is easy to chalk that as much as the return of Rice or a hapless opponent (particularly after the Raiders' protection misplaced Maxx Crosby to an harm), this actually began again in Week 4, after they beat the Ravens 37-20. The next week towards the Jaguars, Mahomes threw a pick-six on the Jacksonville aim line, which swung that sport towards the Jags (whom we'll get to in a bit), however even in that loss, the Chiefs scored 28 factors and had six drives of fifty yards or extra towards an excellent protection. Then, they dropped 30 factors on seven significant drives towards the Lions, punting as soon as all sport.

What has modified? Lower than you would possibly assume. The designed run sport has been about as environment friendly because it was, when you account for rubbish time. The Chiefs have not modified how usually they throw in impartial sport scripts (so much, each earlier than and after the Giants sport). They've gotten higher after the catch, although not considerably so; their uncooked yards after the catch are up fairly a bit, however in NFL Subsequent Gen Stats' yards after catch over expectation, the Chiefs have been twenty eighth by three weeks and will not land a lot greater over the following 4 video games.

The 2 most notable variations, at the least to start out, come by the passing sport and the work of the receivers. For one, the Chiefs' cross catchers are doing a greater job of bringing in Mahomes' passes. That they had a minus-6.7% catch fee over expectation by three video games, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL. The one groups working a decrease fee over that span have been the Titans, who simply fired their coach, and the Jaguars, who're nonetheless a multitude.

Since Week 4, that has jumped to 0.8%, which is true across the center of the pack. The Chiefs aren't snatching balls out of skinny air, however their receivers are holding their very own and never letting their star quarterback down.

The larger issue, although, is what has been lacking across the Chiefs' receivers: defenders. By way of three video games, simply over 46% of Chiefs passes have been thrown to open receivers. That determine was good for twenty second within the league. After we take into account that the Chiefs have been enjoying with out their prime two wideouts and had Mahomes making an attempt to suit throws to guys like Brown and Tyquan Thornton in tight quarters, the underwhelming catch fee may not be an excessive amount of of a shock.

Over the previous 4 video games? That determine has risen to 62.8%, the very best mark within the NFL.

The early-season difficulties in getting receivers open appear like a historic outlier. Between 2018 and 2024, the Chiefs ranked no decrease than fourth within the league in open goal fee in any given season. Given what number of receivers have come by Andy Reid's offense in that span, and the way the Chiefs have advanced stylistically to account for groups taking away large performs excessive, it is onerous to not give a good portion of the credit score for these enhancements to Mahomes. He has a tremendous capability to determine pure areas with open pockets in coverages after which create explosives out of construction.

With receivers as open because the Chiefs have been over the previous 4 weeks, Kansas Metropolis is working an astronomical anticipated completion fee. Per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats' mannequin, a mean group of receivers could be anticipated to show 73.6% of Mahomes' makes an attempt into completions over the previous month, additionally tops within the league. Offenses can run a excessive anticipated catch fee by throwing the ball brief, because the Raiders are doing over that point span, with 5.1 air yards per try; however the Chiefs are averaging a decent 6.7 per try.

And now, after the returns of Rice and Worthy, the Chiefs haven't got a mean set of receivers. For the primary time in years, Reid can actually stretch the sector and create unattainable binds for opposing defenses. Rice acquired a 2-yard rating on a faucet cross, however the different touchdowns on Sunday have been merely mismatches. Rice was remoted towards oft-picked-on nook Kyu Blu Kelly for a back-shoulder TD within the second quarter. Later within the sport, when the Raiders blitzed Mahomes and performed Cowl 0, the legendary blitz-defeating quarterback had no bother discovering Brown within the slot for a rating. These are simply simple completions with out a lot threat for Mahomes.

The tight ends additionally acquired within the combine Sunday. A blown protection on a deep crosser led to a 44-yard catch-and-run for Kelce, whereas Noah Grey picked up 28 yards on a pretend screen-and-wheel up the sideline. The Chiefs have struggled out of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) this season, however that they had a 61% success fee with two or extra tight ends towards the Raiders, their finest mark of the season.

And the cross safety issues that plagued Mahomes in 2024 have not been as current this season. Over the previous month, Mahomes has handled fast pressures on simply 6% of his dropbacks, comfortably the bottom fee within the league (the typical is about 15%). He is doing that whereas holding the ball at a fee properly above league common, so it is not merely a product of getting the ball out quick.

With Mahomes taking sacks on simply 3% of his dropbacks over the previous month and turning the ball over simply as soon as (on that aforementioned pick-six within the Jaguars sport), the Chiefs are emulating the Payments and turning into a optimistic play manufacturing facility. Final season, slightly below 47% of the Chiefs' performs on first and second down have been profitable by EPA. That was ninth within the NFL.

Over the previous 4 weeks, the Chiefs are second in success fee on early downs, trailing solely the Payments. Final 12 months's group wanted to thrive on third all the way down to survive, and with few explosive performs and an enormous blinking mild of an issue at left deal with, too many Chiefs drives ended in need of the top zone as a result of they could not rely on Mahomes to make it by 4 or 5 third downs with out having the play blown up from his blind facet. Now, with each improved offensive line play and extra success on first and second down, third-and-long hasn't been as urgent of a problem. The Chiefs confronted third down with greater than 4 yards to go simply thrice whereas Mahomes was within the sport Sunday.

Will all of this stick? Possibly not fairly as considerably because it has over the previous 4 video games. The Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 12 of 14 goal-to-go conditions over that point, after going 1-for-4 over the primary three weeks of the season. Mahomes has gotten away with a dropped interception or two, together with a choose that ought to have been made by the Raiders within the second quarter on a drive that ended with Rice's second landing of the sport.

With Rice and Worthy within the combine and Mahomes enjoying spectacular soccer, although, this seems and looks like the identical Chiefs offense that has terrified the league as soon as once more.

What we stated in September: “The protection can maintain up a sloppy offense.”

For all of the optimism and explosive performs popping out of Jacksonville's 4-1 begin to the season, it was fairly clear to anybody paying shut consideration that Trevor Lawrence and the offense weren't holding up their finish of the cut price. That offense was producing the occasional large play, however the operation merely wasn't dwelling as much as reasonable expectations.

Even by that 4-1 begin, the Jags led the league in procedural penalties, the form of unforced errors which have little to do with what occurs after the snap. They have been stricken by unlawful shifts and false begins. The offense took delay of sport penalties, even in essential spots or from dead-ball moments. Lawrence threw an unlawful ahead cross after crossing the road of scrimmage in Week 1 towards the Panthers, then did it once more in Week 5 towards the Chiefs.

On prime of that, the Jags have been sloppy with the soccer. Lawrence misplaced a fumble making an attempt to leap over the pile for a fourth-and-short landing towards the Chiefs, solely to have the ball punched out of his fingers. Brian Thomas Jr. struggled with drops, which has led to picks for Lawrence; the QB appeared to throw one brutal interception per sport, which normally got here within the second half.

The protection lined up these issues by forcing gobs of takeaways. Turnover regression towards the imply was one of many greatest causes I included the Jags as considered one of my groups most probably to enhance in 2025, however no one noticed Jacksonville forcing 15 takeaways by its first 5 video games. A type of takeaways grew to become a landing, as Devin Lloyd now-famously took Mahomes' solely turnover of the previous month 99 yards the opposite method, dramatically flipping that sport again in Jacksonville's favor.

The opposite 14 turnovers helped create shorter fields for the Jags. By way of these first 5 video games, the Jaguars had 14 drives begin on their very own 40-yard line or nearer to the opposition finish zone. These drives produced 5 touchdowns, 4 area objectives and three failures by way of a missed area aim or fourth-down stuff. (The opposite two led to kneel-downs to seal up victories.) The Lions and Colts have been the one groups to start out extra usually in what's typically thought-about to be optimistic area place.

However over these previous two losses? The Jaguars have had one brief area, which got here towards the Rams on Sunday in London. It shortly evaporated after an unlawful man downfield penalty and a 13-yard sack on a free rush during which Lawrence did not have a scorching reply and tried to scramble his method out of strain. As an alternative, the Jags have been knocked out of area aim vary and needed to punt down 21-0.

Not a lot has modified on the lengthy drives. The Jaguars have been twenty fourth in factors per possession on drives beginning inside their very own 40-yard line through the 4-1 begin, they usually're twenty seventh by that very same metric on those self same possessions over the previous two weeks. The protection hasn't been capable of pressure any turnovers over that span, although, and that has put the entire strain on the Jaguars' offense to maintain lengthy, profitable drives.

That is the place the procedural penalties proceed to chunk them. The Jags have added 10 extra procedural penalties on offense to their ledger over the previous two video games, tying them for the league lead. That is with out contemplating penalties like offensive holding and unlawful blocks above the waist, the form of calls environment friendly offenses ideally keep away from as a lot as doable.

Probably the most pointless of these penalties got here towards the Seahawks in Week 6. As Thomas wrestled a 50-50 ball away from Seahawks cornerback Josh Jobe for a landing within the third quarter, a flag hit the opposite facet of the sector, with rookie hybrid participant Travis Hunter getting flagged for being offside. The penalty did not matter a ton within the large image, because the Jaguars continued the drive and finally scored a landing anyway, however different much less conspicuous calls do make a distinction.

Drops, an issue plaguing the Jags seemingly since Lawrence arrived on the town, proceed to be a priority. Thomas got here below scrutiny earlier within the season for shrinking in tight quarters and failing to make some robust catches. I am unsure these complaints have been utterly warranted, however I did assume that story was behind us now. As an alternative, that is nonetheless a problem.

Thomas had three doubtlessly catchable balls fall to the bottom Sunday, together with a dig the place the cross was knocked out of his fingers by a giant hit from Kamren Kinchens and an out that was practically introduced in by a leaping Thomas. And final week, Thomas did not do a ok job of bringing in a dig thrown at his helmet, producing a three-and-out in an eight-point sport within the fourth quarter.

The Jags have the second-worst catch fee over expectation of any offense within the NFL this season, forward of solely the Bears, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And whereas it is easy to select on Thomas given his stardom, everyone seems to be accountable. Tim Patrick had a nasty drop towards the Chiefs that ought to have produced a choose, just for three completely different Kansas Metropolis defenders to exaggeratedly whiff on catching the ball. Dyami Brown dropped a would-be landing cross that hit him within the fingers towards the Bengals.

When groups commit too many penalties and haven't got brief fields, they find yourself inevitably needing to transform third-and-long — usually greater than as soon as on a drive — to attain factors. The Jags confronted third-and-10 or extra eight occasions Sunday, with Lawrence changing a kind of makes an attempt. The Jags failed on third-and-short, too; they got here up brief on a third-and-2 when a Thomas flat route picked up just one yard, on a third-and-3 Thomas drop and on a third-and-2 throw from an empty set that Lawrence sailed whereas making an attempt to hit backup tight finish Johnny Mundt.

Liam Coen nonetheless appears to be discovering the correct locations to suit his gamers on offense. Mundt might be not the man you need cut up out catching hitches on third down. I am fairly certain I noticed a Hunter Lengthy selection route earlier this season. The Jags began the season with Thomas working loads of in-breaking routes and struggling earlier than modifying his route tree. Hunter's function has appeared to fluctuate from week to week, although he did have his greatest sport as a professional in London, turning 14 targets into eight catches for 101 yards and a rating. And Travis Etienne Jr., who was drafted two teaching regimes in the past for his relationship with Lawrence and skill as a cross catcher, has 14 catches for 80 yards.

There's expertise right here, however the Jags make too many errors to reliably and persistently win video games with their offense proper now. The protection has proved its capability to prepared the ground, but it surely's at all times going to be robust for groups to pressure a number of takeaways each week. When the onus has fallen on the offense, the Jags have typically fallen aside this season. Till they clear issues up, that is not going to vary.

What we stated in September: “They've a transparent path to the highest seed within the AFC.”

The Payments are on what grew to become a well-timed bye this week, however after a disappointing loss to the Falcons on “Monday Night time Soccer” final week, their sudden downshift is value discussing right here.

When Buffalo rolled off a dramatic comeback win over the rival Ravens within the opener, it regarded just like the Payments have been in nice place to ensure the convention bracket would experience by Buffalo. The Chiefs would land at 0-2, the Ravens would finally fall all the best way to 1-5, and the Payments had what seemed to be a really beneficiant schedule. Having to face the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots and Falcons earlier than the Week 7 bye, it regarded like Buffalo may not have a lot bother beginning 7-0. Throw in a win towards Carolina on further relaxation in Week 8, and Payments followers might envision a world the place they have been 8-0 earlier than internet hosting the Chiefs in early November.

Nicely, schedules could be a humorous factor. The Payments did win their first 4 video games over that span, though the Dolphins put up a combat in Western New York in Week 3, and the Saints acquired inside two factors through the fourth quarter earlier than Josh Allen finally pulled away. Slightly sloppy, maybe, however the Payments have been stacking wins, and that is what mattered.

After which the stack fell over. The Payments could not get into prime gear towards a feisty Patriots group, and Drake Maye made a few big-time performs on the ultimate drive, which resulted in a 52-yard area aim by Andy Borregales that handed the Payments their first lack of the season. Per week later, the offense could not get snug whereas dealing with a Falcons group that had been blown out by the Panthers earlier within the season, with the Payments mustering simply two scores in a 24-14 defeat. All of the sudden, 4-0 was 4-2, and the Payments have been out of the highest spot within the AFC.

What has gone fallacious for the Payments? I will begin with the best doable rationalization: They have been capable of lean on a formulation that no one else within the league has managed to match, and that formulation has come undone, particularly over the previous two video games. If anybody is able to rounding again into that kind, it is the Payments, however what they have been doing was largely unprecedented in league historical past.

It is the turnovers. The offense merely by no means gave away the soccer. Between their bye week in November final 12 months and the win over the Dolphins, the Payments performed 12 video games (together with playoffs). Their offense turned the ball over precisely one time. That has by no means occurred earlier than, and it has by no means even been approached. No one else in league historical past has had a stretch of 12 video games with fewer than 4 turnovers on offense, and the group that pulled that off was final season's Eagles.

We stay in an period the place turnovers are at historic lows, however NFL groups aren't supposed to have the ability to play three months of soccer and switch the ball over one time. That interception, which got here final 12 months towards the Patriots, was a third-and-16 deep ball from Allen that was picked off ultimately zone and amounted to an arm punt. The Payments basically had not handled a significant turnover since their Week 11 sport towards the Chiefs.

Over the previous three video games, the Payments have six turnovers. Allen threw an interception towards the Saints when he could not step right into a throw to get as a lot as he wished on a gap shot, permitting Jonas Sanker to make a pleasant play for his first profession INT. And as soon as that occurred, all of a sudden, the spell gave the impression to be damaged. Allen made an terrible resolution to pressure a throw into double protection within the purple zone for one more choose. One other compressed pocket led to an impacted throw and a choose on the finish of the primary half towards the Falcons, whereas one other Allen cross was tipped and picked within the remaining minute to seal the Payments' 24-14 loss.

Past Allen, the Payments fumbled an trade on a jet sweep and could not fall on the soccer towards Atlanta, whereas a Keon Coleman fumble contained in the 10-yard line gave the Patriots a essential brief area early of their highway win. The Payments had one other ball hit the turf towards the Falcons on a third-and-1 jet sweep to Elijah Moore, and whereas he recovered the fumble, he was stopped behind the road for a loss.

A few of that is Allen throwing in unexpectedly adverse sport scripts. And a few of it was their luck being sure to vary; throughout that 12-game streak, the Payments' offense recovered 11 of their very own fumbles. A few of these are unhealthy exchanges which might be likelier to finish up again with the offense than different fumbles within the open area, however the Payments could not rely on constantly falling on the ball.

With Allen taking sacks at traditionally low charges for many of final season and the early a part of this season, and coordinator Joe Brady being very snug going for it on fourth down, the Payments have been an much more intense model of the optimistic play machine I referred to earlier with the Chiefs. Over our 12-game span, Allen took sacks on simply 3.1% of his dropbacks, which he greater than made up for together with his capability to increase performs and scramble for vital yardage.

Along with the six turnovers over the previous three weeks, Allen has taken eight sacks at a 9.2% fee — practically tripling the speed from the prior three months. Once more, sport script issues right here, however there is a a lot completely different formulation underpinning the Payments' offense from the one which had led Allen to the MVP nod final season.

With Allen avoiding sacks and making so many out-of-structure performs, he was the uncommon quarterback who was higher below strain than he was figuring out of a clear pocket. Once more that span, Allen's 87.6 QBR below strain was practically 15 factors higher than that of anyone else. Over the previous three video games, with sacks and takeaways turning into a problem? Allen's QBR has dropped to 12.2 below strain, twenty fifth amongst quarterbacks. He has gone 8-of-21 for 90 yards with one landing and three picks over that span.

In case your offense is not a relentless on-schedule machine that by no means will get off monitor, it is advisable to create explosive performs to outlive. Allen's clearly able to doing that, however the sport scripts and the added yardage wanted for conversions leaned into Buffalo's lack of playmakers within the passing sport. James Cook dinner III has been excellent this season, and there have been considerations that the Payments don't get him the ball usually sufficient, however Brady has already leaned extra closely into the run. The Payments are 18th in neutral-script run rate on early downs, simply narrowly off from seventeenth the 12 months prior. Even throughout this tough patch, the Payments are second within the NFL in success fee on offense.

The Payments' offense wants extra explosives and fewer takeaways. However the Payments' protection must go in the other way. If something, the protection has been extra depending on forcing turnovers in recent times to thrive. Earlier this 12 months, I wrote about the way it's tough to maintain turnover charges within the prime 5 on protection, simply given how a lot variance can swap takeaway figures.

Nicely, listed below are two vital rankings for the Payments. The primary one is how usually they ended opposing drives with takeaways. The second is the place they ranked in factors allowed per possession on drives that did not finish with a fumble or interception. You will discover a sudden drop-off:

This was a superb protection between 2021 and 2023. In 2024? The Payments weren't nice at stopping opposing offenses, however they created extra turnovers than every other group within the league on a per-drive foundation, so the stops they did provide you with have been disproportionately invaluable.

This 12 months, although, the Payments have solely 5 takeaways in six video games. They've but to have a multiturnover sport on protection after producing 10 of them within the 2024 common season, 9 of which yielded Payments victories. They've misplaced the turnover battle in consecutive weeks after successful or tying it in each considered one of their regular-season and postseason video games of final season.

Stress hasn't been an issue for the Payments, as a resurgent 12 months from Joey Bosa has helped Buffalo maintain the league's second-best strain fee this season. With out strain? The Payments have been putty. They're twenty eighth in opponent QBR allowed with none form of strain getting residence, simply forward of the Commanders, Cowboys, Titans and Ravens — all of whom are going by their very own crises within the secondary.

The Payments are going by one as properly, even when coach Sean McDermott refuses to acknowledge as a lot. This merely has not been a unit as much as their requirements. A few of that has been injury-related; the Payments have not had first-round choose Maxwell Hairston, who has been out all season up to now with a knee harm. And in flip, veteran Tre'Davious White — a cap casualty in Buffalo two years in the past — has allowed a 100.6 passer rating, a determine that does not embrace the cross interference penalty he took ultimately zone towards the Patriots to assist arrange a rating on the finish of the primary half.

The safeties have been each bit as disappointing, and there is not the identical harm excuse. Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp have been Buffalo's two finest safeties on paper, they usually've been on the sector all season. They're simply not capable of make performs. Rapp could not even get shut sufficient to make deal with makes an attempt at occasions on Derrick Henry within the opener, and Bishop has made each psychological and tackling errors. By way of two seasons, his profession missed deal with fee is nearly 12%, an unsustainable quantity for any security. It is one factor to take a tough angle and miss a deal with on Bijan Robinson's 81-yard landing scamper, however Bishop whiffed on a deal with of Stefon Diggs within the fourth quarter of the Patriots sport, turning what ought to have been a 6-yard achieve on a third-and-5 right into a 30-yard gain and a first-and-goal alternative. The Patriots scored a landing to go up 10 and by no means trailed the remainder of the best way.

There are two methods to go from right here. One is to get again on the outdated formulation — dominate the turnover battle, remove the adverse performs and win by making fewer errors than their opponents. The opposite is to discover a new formulation. The Payments can determine different methods to win, however with a resurgent Chiefs group coming to city in two weeks, they should discover or redefine their id and quick.

What we stated in September: “The Daniel Jones-led offense is a flash within the pan.”

Nope. After their 38-point shellacking of the Chargers on Sunday afternoon, I am unsure how one can actually poke many holes in what the Colts are doing on offense. They're the very best offense within the league, and it actually is not notably shut. They're scoring 3.5 factors per possession, and by that metric, the second-placed Chiefs are nearer to thirteenth than they're to the Colts in first.

The Colts additionally lead the league in EPA per play, forward of the Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers and Lions. It'd really feel as if that is going to fade, and there are not any ensures that the Colts would be the finest offense in soccer over the remainder of the season, however we have now seen them dominate opposing defenses for 419 snaps in 2025. And whereas seven video games is not even half of a season of knowledge, it is normally sufficient to know {that a} group is not about to all of a sudden collapse and fall to the underside half of the league.

Going again by 2010, the league chief in EPA per play after seven weeks has typically continued to play properly all through the rest of the season. They've, on common, been the league's seventh-best offense from Week 8 onward. No EPA chief has been worse than 14th in EPA per play after Week 7 onward. That group, the 2012 Giants, completed the common season ninth in EPA per play over all the 12 months. They're the one chief by seven weeks since 2010 that did not end the common season within the prime 5.

Barring an harm to Jones, which would depart the Colts with rookie Riley Leonard below middle, the Colts haven't got some form of deadly flaw or underlying metric ready to trace towards their collapse. They've recovered three of 4 fumbles on offense, however the sign there may be fumbling solely 4 occasions in seven video games, which is spectacular. They're third within the league in third down conversion fee and seventh in purple zone landing fee, that are on the excessive facet however hardly out of whack for an offense that is rolling on early downs and out of doors the purple zone, too. Will the Colts go 17-for-17 in goal-to-go conditions the remainder of the 12 months? Most likely not, however they do not want to try this to be an excellent offense.

Among the arguments that might have been truthful to carry up concerning the Colts throughout their scorching begin in September do not actually apply now. Let's run by them:

They've confronted a simple schedule. It was actually one factor when the Colts dropped 33 factors on a hapless Dolphins protection within the opener. Even then, it was clear that Miami had punted on constructing an NFL-caliber secondary and have been going to be a goal for opposing offenses all season. The Browns, who've been an offensive mess all season, scored 24 factors towards the Dolphins on offense yesterday. The Panthers ran for 239 yards on Miami. No one ought to be launching their nice offensive marketing campaign on beating the Dolphins.

Nicely, in Week 2, the Colts scored 29 factors and racked up 473 web yards on the Broncos, who've a fantastic protection. Whereas Indy has loved a few of the league's simpler defenses (Titans, Raiders) round a 20-point, three-turnover efficiency in a loss to the Rams, Sunday was one other prove-it sport towards a Chargers protection that ranked tenth in EPA per play earlier than dealing with the Colts. Indianapolis had what was arguably its finest offensive efficiency of the season, scoring 38 factors and topping 400 yards.

The Colts began the sport with three landing drives, all of which went 70 yards or extra, together with a 17-play epic within the second quarter. After a punt, they kicked a area aim and drove downfield for 2 extra touchdowns. After one other punt, the Colts chewed up the ultimate three-and-a-half minutes of clock to seal a two-TD victory.

It is one factor to spike a few large performs or make the most of just a few brief fields, however the Colts have been persistently explosive and capable of create large play alternatives all through this sport. Even dealing with a Chargers group that has a quarterback and a set of receivers identified for his or her capability to create these large performs, the Colts have been simply the extra explosive group of the 2.

After Justin Herbert and the L.A. offense struggled to piece collectively an 11-play, 76-yard drive to get inside two scores within the third quarter, the Colts simply hopped on the sector and moved the ball with ease. Tyler Warren leaked into the flat, shrugged off a deal with from security Derwin James Jr. and turned upfield for 29 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. picked up 11 yards. Alec Pierce went for 14. And with the Colts simply getting into area aim vary, Jonathan Taylor made up for an earlier run for no achieve on the drive by taking the ball 19 yards to the home. They moved 73 yards on 5 performs, merely overwhelming an excellent Chargers protection alongside the best way.

Jones is not going to maintain making this many large performs. At his finest in New York below Brian Daboll, Jones had advanced into some extent guard and fast distributor. Daboll dialed up run-pass choices, quick-game stuff and one-read ideas that allowed Jones to both get the ball out shortly or get to scrambling. That offense labored in 2022, at the same time as Jones threw the shortest common cross of anyone within the league, but it surely was much less efficient in 2023 and 2024.

There are not any such limitations this time round. Jones is averaging 8.4 air yards per throw, the seventh-highest determine for any quarterback within the NFL. He is a comparatively modest twelfth within the league in yards per try on deep passes, however Jones would not must be early-career Mahomes or Philip Rivers by way of selecting groups aside downfield to thrive on offense. He simply must be ok to provide opposing defenses pause, and Jones has greater than met that prerequisite this season.

Shane Steichen has helped make life simpler for Jones in working off play-action. Jones is taking a play-fake on 33.5% of his dropbacks this season, comfortably the very best fee within the league. (Second, coincidentally, is Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.) Owing partially to how devastating the Colts' run sport has been, Jones is averaging 9.5 yards per dropback with play-action this season, the fifth-best fee within the league. On Sunday, Jones was 10-of-13 with play-action for 130 yards and a landing cross.

There isn't any disgrace in saying that the Colts playmakers are serving to gas a few of these large performs with what they do after the catch, too. Taylor has been the very best again in soccer (alongside Bijan Robinson), whereas each considered one of Indy's playmakers has leveled up and appears as if they are a tier above the place they have been with Anthony Richardson Sr. at quarterback.

I am unsure any offensive participant has been extra enjoyable to look at from a movie perspective this season than Warren, whose function within the offense would possibly as properly be Steichen's Coach of the Yr submission. No one performs extra significant roles throughout the offense and will get the ball from a wider vary of locations, with Puka Nacua as the one potential competitors for that title. Warren has picked up first downs working the triple choice and working the famed Nacua Sail route out of the backfield by the offensive line. He has been a lead blocker and a Wildcat quarterback. And towards the Cardinals, Warren lined up because the wing tight finish after which took the handoff on a counter on third-and-5 for a 6-yard run, establishing his landing catch on the following first-and-goal snap.

Jones will take too many sacks. The Broncos and Chargers do not precisely have mild cross rushes, and Jones has managed to outlive. The identical quarterback who ran an 8.5% sack fee in New York, together with a 15.8% mark in a six-game pattern in 2023, is taking sacks on simply 2.6% of his dropbacks this season. That is the very best mark within the league, and it could be one of many single greatest enhancements any participant has constituted of season-to-season.

There was a bit of little bit of magic the place gamers collide, and Jones by some means manages to keep away from the fray and run ahead for a primary down, however he has legitimately been excellent about discovering the road between extending performs with the hopes of making one thing explosive and giving up on a play on the proper time. Jones has held onto the ball for 5 seconds or extra simply thrice all season. For context, Caleb Williams and Cam Ward are tied for the league lead with 20 such performs.

Jones can be much less concerned within the run sport than he has been in previous years. Taking kneel-downs out of the equation, Jones has 22 carries for 86 yards by six video games. These numbers aren't going to look good in comparison with what the 2019 first-round choose was capable of do at his finest with the Giants, but it surely's additionally a safer solution to stay. Jones took hits on practically 31% of his dropbacks between 2023 and 2024 in New York, a determine topped solely by Justin Fields. That determine is down to simply over 21% this season. Fewer hits imply fewer alternatives to get injured.

Accidents can be an issue. No one can predict accidents, but it surely's truthful to at the least word that Jones has performed only one full season of soccer in his professional profession because the starter with out lacking time. That risk goes to hold over the Colts, particularly provided that the untested Leonard is one unhealthy Jones hit away from being their beginning quarterback. On the identical time, including a veteran with a wholesome résumé is not a assure, both; Kirk Cousins had been wholesome for many of the prior decade earlier than tearing an Achilles. And Indianapolis' O-line has been wonderful all through the season. Outdoors of dropping Taylor or one thing, the Colts and Jones ought to be effective.

They will not have the ability to throw in adverse sport scripts. This would possibly find yourself being true. The issue is that no one is ready to get out to a large enough result in discover out. Jones hasn't taken a single snap trailing by a couple of rating all season. After they have fallen behind, Jones and Taylor have performed a fantastic job of getting the Colts instantly again into the sport. And as soon as they've gotten forward, Jones and Taylor have sometimes performed a superb job of holding them there.

At 6-1, the Colts are all of a sudden in first place in all the AFC, not to mention the South. Jones has been one of many gamers of the 12 months up to now. It is shortly turning into tougher to poke holes in his success with Steichen and Indianapolis. With one other spectacular win over one of many league's extra imposing defenses, Jones is firmly establishing himself as a part of the quarterback reclamation class of 2025. He would possibly even find yourself being valedictorian.