Who’s going to be sturdy and who isn’t within the remaining races

Oscar Piastri's Components 1 world championship lead appears to be like relatively much less unassailable after a borderline disastrous United States Grand Prix weekend. The McLaren driver no longer solely faces stern opposition from team-mate Lando Norris, however the unstoppable power of Max Verstappen with momentum. 

Mexico Metropolis 

Bumps, skinny air, and one lengthy straight outline this circuit. Regardless of that straight, and the shorter one between Turns 3 and 4, groups wind on the downforce as a result of Turns 7 by 11 require some threading of the needle and it's very straightforward to get a wobble on by right here and lose velocity. To an awesome extent, the thinner air at altitude negates the impact of larger wings, which is among the causes Red Bull has thrived right here over the previous few years. 

The RB21 can be one of many few vehicles to take pleasure in good, steady downforce on the increased trip heights required to guard the planks from this monitor's bumps. There are additionally not one of the actually quick corners the place McLaren's MCL39 shines. 

Ferrari carried out nicely right here final season, however the SF-25 hasn't at all times loved bumpy tracks for the reason that Scuderia chased decrease trip heights throughout its conception. The drivers are additionally managing one other concern, one which they've been cagey about discussing, and that mainly manifests itself at quicker circuits. 

That is one other monitor the place Pirelli is introducing a step in tyre compounds, so the C1 replaces the C2 because the laborious, whereas the C3 and C4 stay the medium and delicate. Whereas the purpose is to nudge groups in direction of two-stop methods, the improved thermal degradation traits of this yr's tyres militates in opposition to the success of this tactic. 

What occurred in Austin was that the laborious tyre was just too sluggish, and groups defaulted – for essentially the most half – to a one-stop medium-soft. Final season in Mexico, your entire high 10 did medium-hard and pitted inside six laps of one another. If the laborious is 1.5s a lap slower once more, because it was final weekend, anticipate this to be a medium-soft pageant of tyre administration. 

Races in Mexico Metropolis usually come down to not who's quickest however who can preserve their head. Verstappen would have performed higher final yr had he not succumbed to a mood tantrum. 

Brazil 

Interlagos provides a tantalising mixture of challenges, with quick first and final sectors bookending a twistier center one. This have to arrange the vehicles with a compromise between the conflicting necessities is roughly analogous to Spa, although groups can get away with barely increased downforce settings provided that Interlagos is at altitude. 

Final yr's moist circumstances supplied Pirelli a get-out-of-jail-free card on race day as a result of F1's tyre provider had introduced compounds a step softer, however the C5 was so delicate as to be unraceable. This yr, it is going to be C2-C3-C4 because it was two seasons in the past. 

McLaren would usually anticipate to have the higher hand right here in a dry race, given the MCL39's aero effectivity at higher-downforce tracks. The slowing downhill part from the exits of the Senna ‘S' to the potential overtaking zone at Descida do Lago is nearly tailored for its automobile, as is the ultimate sector from Juncao onwards. However, once more, as McLaren crew principal Andrea Stella has acknowledged, Purple Bull's weak point at higher-downforce tracks is now not a given 

Of the opposite front-midfielders, on paper Mercedes ought to have the higher hand on Ferrari given the SF-25's allergy symptoms to bumps. 

Las Vegas 

Whereas the desert-bound Disneyland for adults has little clearly in frequent with F1's temple of velocity, the abundance of straights make Las Vegas a low-downforce monitor, although the necessities will not be so low as Monza. Colder climes additionally play a task, although the race is 2 hours earlier this yr, so it won't be fairly so chilly. 

This monitor didn't go well with McLaren final yr and there's no purpose to suppose there shall be a drastic enchancment this time round. The MCL39's benefit has been at its most marginal at low-downforce tracks and its different sturdy go well with, thermal administration of the tyres is unlikely to come back into play, regardless that the ambients shall be much less frigid. 

Final yr's race was extra of a contest between Mercedes – whose vehicles have been quicker in colder climes for the previous few years – and Ferrari, which was on an upward efficiency trajectory. It's turn into tough to foretell the place Mercedes shall be – half the time that appears to be a thriller to the crew itself – however the clean monitor floor and proliferation of straights will play to Ferrari's strengths. 

Verstappen was additionally a bit-part participant in final yr's race, however the RB21 has been potent at lower-downforce tracks – extra so later within the season after aero growth. Its new-found potential to succeed in decrease trip heights make Verstappen a possible favorite right here.   

Qatar 

The Losail circuit was initially designed for motorbike racing so it's a quick, flowing structure with a reasonably excessive downforce requirement and only a few laborious stops. Warmth can be an element at this location, regardless of it being an evening race. Theoretically, that makes it a McLaren circuit, however the papaya posse underperformed within the grand prix final yr after ending one-two within the dash. 

A lot of that was attributable to Norris and Piastri underperforming in qualifying, and Norris receiving a considerably contentious penalty for not slowing for yellow flags. 

That is additionally a monitor the place Ferrari can enter the combination. It's not particularly bumpy, and though the SF-25 has been problematic in high-speed corners, this has mainly been ones that require quick modifications of course, the place the rear finish can come unstuck. Right here, other than a right-left-right between Turns 7 and 10, the corners have a linear radius. 

Abu Dhabi 

Apart from a fiddly part across the resort and marina, this monitor is mainly dominated by straights with a handful of quick corners, so aero effectivity with downforce wound on confers a robust benefit. Up till lately, that will have made it a nailed-on McLaren circuit however, given latest developments, it's seemingly Verstappen shall be nearer. Final yr, he was three-tenths off pole place within the automobile that had taken him to the drivers' championship per week earlier. 

Yas Marina is one other venue prone to deliver Ferrari into the combination, maybe not for general victory however as a doubtlessly disruptive power behind the battle for pole place. As we discovered in Austin, monitor place is now tough to overturn even on circuits the place overtaking is feasible. Yas Marina, regardless of one of the best efforts of the homeowners, is as conducive to passing as Monaco. 

We wish to hear from you!

– The Autosport.com Group