What are Tim Mayer’s probabilities of profitable the FIA presidency?

Maybe essentially the most fascinating facet of Tim Mayer's manifesto as an FIA presidential candidate is how intently it echoes that of the incumbent, Mohammed Ben Sulayem, 4 years in the past.

Mayer tacitly admitted as a lot when he set out his stall at a press convention forward of the British Grand Prix final weekend.

“Mohammed Ben Sulayem ran on good concepts: worth for smaller golf equipment, transparency, reform,” mentioned Mayer. “The message was proper, the supply has failed. As a substitute of reform, we have seen efficiency.”

Mayer's rivalry is that Ben Sulayem's regime has relied on “stagecraft” to offer “the phantasm of progress”, even describing the federation's monetary turnaround – one of many present president's most prized speaking factors – as illusory. That latter level is one for the forensic accountants to preside upon.

But when these two candidates have one thing of a yin-and-yang relationship, it's maybe not a proportional one. The FIA presidential election mechanism is basically a sport of numbers, and Ben Sulayem has at all times ensured the maths work in his favour.

The opening act of the sport is for a candidate to reveal a worldwide assist base through their crew (often called the ‘checklist') of different FIA members who should assist them solely: a possible president of the senate, a deputy president and 7 vice-presidents for sport, and a deputy president for car, mobility and tourism. Of the vice-presidents, there have to be two from Europe and one every from Africa, Asia-Pacific, North America, South America, and the Center-East and North Africa areas.

As such, an incumbent can successfully block opposition by securing the full assist of 1 area: assist of only one area – when David Ward deserted his problem to Jean Todt in 2013, it was as a result of 11 of the 12 North American auto golf equipment had already declared themselves for Todt.

Assuming the stipulations are achieved, candidates have to win numbers within the election itself. The FIA has 245 member organisations throughout 149 international locations; every nation will get 24 votes, although these are break up between the mobility golf equipment and sporting golf equipment. Because the combine of those is completely different throughout varied territories, some international locations carry extra weight than others.

It has grow to be abundantly clear that Carlos Sainz Sr's putative candidacy was by no means severe, and that he was performing as a so-called ‘stalking horse', a political time period derived from the previous searching apply of utilizing an animal as cowl to strategy prey undetected.

College students of politics could keep in mind the canine days of the late Margaret Thatcher's premiership within the UK, when an obscure back-bench MP, 69-year-old Anthony Meyer, ran towards the prime minister in a management election in late 1989. As anticipated, he misplaced – however sufficient get together members voted for Meyer or abstained for opposition to Thatcher to coalesce and achieve momentum. Lower than a yr later, she was out.

One may learn developments on this FIA presidential election yr equally. In saying he was contemplating a run for the submit, Sainz acted as a barometer for the extent of opposition to the current regime. He additionally compelled the incumbent president to indicate no less than a few of his hand, within the type of a assist letter from a major variety of nationwide motoring golf equipment – predominantly, you'll observe, Spanish-speaking.

For his half, Mayer says there isn't any connection between his bid and Sainz's abortive one.

However in declaring that he'll run and outlining a manifesto, somewhat than simply saying he is considering it, Mayer has solely taken one public step additional than Sainz. What he should do subsequent is produce his ‘checklist' after which bounce by means of the most recent hoops voted by means of by the FIA normal meeting this summer season, a vetting course of analyzing “skilled integrity”.

Mayer has but to call any others operating on his ticket, although there was speak of Robert Reid, the previous rally co-driver who resigned as Ben Sulayem's deputy president for sport on the eve of this yr's Bahrain GP. Motorsport UK chairman David Richards, a outstanding supporter of Ben Sulayem who has grow to be one of many president's fiercest critics, was additionally talked about throughout Mayer's press convention as an advisory determine.

“I'm very privileged to have some very high-level recommendation on what we have to do,” mentioned Mayer.

“The presidential checklist… there are some vacancies nonetheless in that. We've been attempting to maintain this marketing campaign beneath the radar. We've had to try this.

“There's no secret in motorsport or mobility, so if we're speaking to folks it wouldn't be a secret.”

Mayer additionally cited former FIA CEO Natalie Robyn, who left in 2024 after a really transient tenure, saying he would “have her again tomorrow”.

Thus far, Mayer has supplied an eminently quotable focus for anti-Ben Sulayem sentiment, even describing the president's regime as a “reign of terror”. An fascinating alternative of phrases on condition that this phrase derives from a violent section of the French Revolution, and the FIA's HQ stands within the Place de la Concorde – the place King Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette have been parted from their heads in 1793.

However to achieve the elemental numbers sport, Mayer must do extra than simply lob barbs within the incumbent's route.

A key facet of the FIA which many fail to understand is that Components 1 and motorsport characterize solely a fraction of the governing physique's enterprise. The member golf equipment have their very own agendas and priorities, so the electioneering course of is basically a transactional one: what can or will the president do for them?

That is the important thing battleground for Mayer, and he is aware of it.

“We're in a scenario the place it is crucial for the member golf equipment that they see the worth, that they see that they'll get worth,” he mentioned.

“To be sincere, Mohammed has been fairly good at explaining to them what he is doing for them. However he must do it high to backside, not simply right here and there for member golf equipment. It must be common throughout the organisation.”

What Mayer should do to win the election is persuade the golf equipment that, in his phrases, “they'll get higher worth than they're getting proper now”. All of it comes right down to arithmetic.