Week 12 betting information: Picks for Colts-Chiefs, prop performs on Shedeur, Lamar and extra

Worth is worth, irrespective of the place — or how — you discover it. And that is what we'll intention to do every week on this house — discover worth.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen convey completely different views to how they method sports activities betting. Solak leans on his experience in participant analysis and the X's and O's to seek out edges, whereas Walder depends on statistical fashions to select plus-expected worth bets. Bowen, a former NFL security, predicts constructive matchups and sport winners from tape research and his understanding of the league.

These weekly picks won't be restricted to a sure wager sort. From spreads and cash strains to totals and even defensive participant props, a superb value is likely to be discovered wherever.

Outcomes will probably be tracked all through the season, with flat one-unit wagers for every listed wager.

With that, let's dive in to Week 12. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook and topic to vary.

Notice: Defensive prop bets will probably be added as they develop into accessible.

Leap to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Recreation bets

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs to cowl -3.5 (-105) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Bowen: A key matchup on this sport to observe? It is the Chiefs' capability to warmth up the pocket in opposition to Daniel Jones. When pressured this season, Jones has a 52.2 QBR, and his off-target fee jumps to 21.1%. I see the Chiefs — who've a top-10 blitz fee — dictating the circulation of this sport from a defensive perspective. Take them to cowl the three.5 factors at Arrowhead.

Colts crew whole OVER 23.5 (-115)

Solak: Perhaps I am getting trapped by this line, however I am completely satisfied to fall into the pit. The Colts are averaging a whopping 3.17 factors per drive on the season, but have a complete of solely 23.5 whole factors in opposition to a good, however unspectacular Kansas Metropolis Chiefs protection. Kansas Metropolis is seventh in factors per drive allowed, sure — however they're twelfth in first down conversion fee and 14th in success fee. Not a juggernaut group. The Colts are third in pink zone landing fee and first in pink zone rating fee. I am assured they're going to punch it in for seven after they get downfield.

With the Chiefs' backs in opposition to the wall, an impressed effort is predicted from the offense, which hasn't been doing its half in current weeks. However the protection would not have the instruments to deal with the Colts' offense. Daniel Jones has struggled in opposition to defenses with speedy edge rushers who shortly make him reset within the pocket — that is not Kansas Metropolis. It is value noting that Jones was restricted in Thursday observe by a calf harm, however the Indianapolis beat appears to assume it was a technicality greater than the rest.

I just like the crew whole greatest as a result of the Colts will virtually definitely nonetheless look to attain even when they're nursing a second-half lead. You possibly can by no means have a large enough cushion on the scoreboard in opposition to Patrick Mahomes.

Detroit Lions to cowl -10 (-115) vs. New York Giants

Solak: This is a crucial line to get now, because it has moved right down to 10 — however I don't anticipate it to get to 9.5 except we get stunning harm information out of Detroit. This line is already a Jaxson Dart line, and I do not assume it will transfer a lot when Dart is formally introduced as lively for this sport. If you wish to danger it for the 9.5, be at liberty — I will hit it once more if 9.5s develop into accessible.

Lions coach Dan Campbell has traditionally been sturdy on this spot. Campbell is 22-9 in opposition to the unfold after a loss, which the Lions suffered in opposition to the Eagles final Sunday evening. The final time he didn't cowl after a loss was in 2022. Campbell's Lions are additionally at house, the place they've been a lot better this season. Jared Goff is averaging 0.22 EPA per dropback at house and 0.16 on the highway, because the chilly air impacts his grip and accuracy. The Lions have performed a string of powerful run defenses in current weeks — Chiefs, Buccaneers, Vikings, Eagles — however now get the Giants, who're giving up 1.7 speeding yards over expectation per carry. That quantity is the largest single-season quantity within the Subsequent Gen Stats database. Count on straightforward, explosive drives for Detroit — and a Giants crew that may't preserve tempo with that degree of scoring.

Arizona Cardinals to cowl +3 (-110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Solak: This one isn't for the faint of coronary heart. The Cardinals have misplaced consecutive video games by three scores. However each had been to divisional rivals, and each had been in spectacular vogue. The Cardinals went down 28-0 to the Seattle Seahawks after two strip-sack touchdowns from Seattle's protection, then they misplaced the turnover battle 3-0 (and gave up a 99-yard kickoff return) of their loss to the San Francisco 49ers. However earlier than these two video games, Arizona had not misplaced a sport by greater than 4 factors. The Jaguars run extraordinarily cold and warm, however they have been stronger at house than on the highway. Of their 5 non-home video games this yr (one was a impartial sport in London in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams), Jacksonville is 2-3 with wins over the Mac Jones 49ers and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cardinals will probably be with out Marvin Harrison Jr. once more, however Jacoby Brissett has proved in opposition to a big sufficient pattern of defenses that he elevates this passing sport. Brisset's Cardinals are thirteenth in offensive success fee and sixth in explosive go fee, and the Jaguars' passing protection is sneakily suspect (twenty fourth in success fee) when it is not snagging turnovers. I might solely take this at +3 and go on +2.5.

Baltimore Ravens crew whole OVER 29.5 (-120)

Bowen: With a matchup in opposition to a New York Jets protection giving up 28.6 factors per sport (twenty seventh within the league), I just like the Ravens to hit the over. Search for Baltimore to script a name sheet that stretches the Jets, each horizontally and vertically, creating house for Lamar Jackson to make the most of his dual-threat capability.

Seth Walder's defensive props

Offensive participant props

Drake Maye passing yards OVER 252.5 (-115)

Solak: A lot has been manufactured from the truth that Maye would not but have a sport with greater than 300 yards passing. Properly, he is averaging a chilly 258 and has been over this specific determine in eight out of 11 video games this season. Of the three video games he didn't clear 252.5, two had been huge first-half blowouts, in opposition to the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans, respectively. With Joe Burrow anticipated to return for Week 12, I do not assume this will probably be a blowout. If something, the Bengals may play quicker as they skew to a heavier go fee over expectation with Burrow underneath middle. Which means extra snaps for Maye. Although the Bengals' run protection is sort of poor, it is the passing overs which have actually gotten them this season. Eight of 10 quarterbacks have gone over their closing passing yardage line in opposition to Cincinnati this season. The 2 that failed had been Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers, the latter of whom left final week's sport early due to a wrist harm. I anticipate we see Maye rip off his typical massive positive factors by the air, and with a barely elevated dropback fee, recover from this quantity handily.

Lamar Jackson speeding yards UNDER 34.5 (-110)

Solak: The Ravens are usually not asking Jackson to run this season. Jackson is averaging solely 3.4 designed runs per sport this season — simply the bottom mark of his profession. HIs scramble fee is right down to 7.1%, effectively beneath his profession common of 9.5%. He has solely six scrambles in three video games since he returned from harm. Leg accidents are clearly hampering Jackson, who has been listed with hamstring, knee and ankle accidents at numerous factors this season. Sometimes, I might wish to hammer a speeding QB in opposition to Aaron Glenn, as his defenses sometimes battle with scramblers. However in a sport with a 13.5-point line, it is doubtless we see the Ravens nurse a big second-half lead and accordingly defend their gimpy quarterback from pointless utilization and potential hits. I choose the speeding yardage line to the speeding makes an attempt line, as Jackson may nonetheless have a excessive scramble fee, however he won't break as many tackles as he usually does, given the accidents.

Shedeur Sanders speeding yards UNDER 22.5 (-110)

Walder: Sanders' pace metrics from school blew me away. And never in a great way. Telemetry Sports activities makes use of participant monitoring information to create a collection of school player-level metrics, and one in every of them is what they name “Velocity Over Anticipated,” which compares a participant's linear pace on a play to what we'd anticipate a mean participant at their place to realize on that very same play. And Sanders final yr was within the first percentile (second worst) in that metric. He was within the twenty third percentile in acceleration and 57th percentile in change of path. There's extra to forecasting speeding yards than simply pace, however given his lack of a observe document within the NFL, I feel it is potential these (poor) pace scores aren't being absolutely baked in but.

Jalen Hurts speeding yards OVER 29.5 (-115)

Bowen: In a Week 1 head-to-head matchup with Dallas, Hurts rushed for 62 yards on 14 carries. With Dallas enjoying heavy zone protection — attending to depth and squeezing home windows — Hurts was pressured to drag the ball down as a runner. And I anticipate an analogous defensive script from the Cowboys on Sunday, particularly if Hurts is unwilling to chop it free on middle-of-the-field throws.

Geno Smith INTs UNDER 0.5 (+160)

Walder: Sure, I am betting on Smith's capability to not throw an interception Sunday regardless of having already thrown 13 picks this season. And sure, I am making that wager when he is enjoying in opposition to an excellent Cleveland Browns protection. However there's something completely different about this sport than virtually all different Las Vegas Raiders video games — the Raiders are favored. And by greater than a area aim. That issues a ton right here. Groups which might be favored usually tend to be main, and groups which might be main can afford to go much less steadily and take fewer dangers when passing. As dangerous as Smith has been, he has had that deck stacked in opposition to him more often than not. Contemplating we're getting +160 on the underneath, my interceptions mannequin believes that is effectively value it.

Tyler Shough go makes an attempt UNDER 30.5 (-105)

Walder: The New Orleans Saints have run designed go performs 63% of the time this season, eleventh most within the NFL. That may make them seem like pass-leaning, however they most definitely are usually not. After we modify for sport context utilizing NFL Subsequent Gen Stats' go fee over expectation, we see the Saints with a minus-7% go fee over expectation, the fourth-most run-heavy within the league. Add in the truth that the Saints are literally favored for under the second time all season, and there is a a lot decrease probability that they're going to be behind and compelled to go late within the sport. My go makes an attempt mannequin makes the truthful value on the underneath -166.

Jordan Love speeding yards OVER 10.5 (-120)

Bowen: Love has topped the 20-yard speeding mark in 4 of his previous seven video games, and the Minnesota Vikings defensive identification forces quarterbacks to maneuver. Minnesota presently has the league's highest blitz fee (44.1%), so search for Like to make performs exterior of construction as a runner.

Jaylen Warren to document 70+ rushing yards (+130)

Bowen: The Bears are beat up on the linebacker place, and this defensive unit is already permitting 5.2 YPC, which ranks twenty ninth within the league. Search for the Steelers to deploy extra two- and three-tight finish units, that includes Warren in a run-heavy sport plan.

Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards OVER 29.5 (-105)

Bowen: Previously two video games, with head coach Dan Campbell calling performs, Gibbs has totaled 30 or extra yards receiving in every, which incorporates 107 yards receiving he dropped on the Eagles' protection in Week 11. Search for Campbell to get Gibbs free on backfield releases that isolate the New York Giants' linebackers in protection.

Saquon Barkley receptions OVER 2.5 (-105)

Solak: Hitting RB receiving overs in opposition to Matt Eberflus' Dallas Cowboys protection has been a worthwhile method all season, and catching Barkley on this sport is a dream spot. Barkley's route rely has been somewhat down in current weeks as Tank Bigsby has been built-in into the offense and Will Shipley has returned from harm, however the Eagles performed grindy, low play-count video games over the previous two weeks. They need to have a neater time transferring the ball in opposition to Dallas, which creates extra dropbacks, and that creates extra receiving alternatives for Barkley. The one power of this Cowboys protection is the go rush, and Lane Johnson is out, leaving Fred Johnson at proper deal with. The Cowboys will attempt to win this sport with early, fast strain — and people kinds of snaps create extra RB targets on pressured dumpoffs and screens. Barkley had 5 targets and 4 receptions in opposition to the Cowboys in Week 1 when the Eagles performed a mean sport for offensive output (24 factors) on largely a impartial script. I am anticipating an analogous consequence on this one.

Walder: Working backs document a reception on 8% of performs in opposition to man protection, however that quantity jumps to fifteen% (virtually double!) when dealing with zone. So what we have been doing all season is what we're doing right here: backing working again reception overs when dealing with a zone-heavy protection and unders in opposition to man-heavy defenses. The Dallas Cowboys aren't working zone fairly as usually as they had been early within the season, however they've nonetheless deployed zone protection 74% of the time — second most within the NFL.

Tyler Allgeier to attain Anytime TD (+200)

Bowen: Allgeier has seven speeding scores on the season, and we all know he'll get work within the low pink zone space of the sphere. Allgeier had a speeding landing final week contained in the 5-yard line, and he has a complete of 4 goal-to-go carries in his previous two video games. Let's wager on Allgeier to money in on these alternatives once more versus the Saints.

Tee Higgins receptions OVER 5.5 (-130)

Bowen: Higgins has had at the very least eight targets in 4 of his previous 5 video games. And people numbers ought to bounce with Ja'Marr Chase out (suspension) for the Week 12 matchup in opposition to the Patriots. Let's take Higgins to hit the over in a sport during which the Bengals might be chasing factors, resulting in extra throwing quantity from his quarterback.

Stefon Diggs receiving yards OVER 55.5 (-115)

Bowen: Diggs caught 9 passes for 105 yards in a Week 11 win over the New York Jets, and he has had 17 targets over his previous two video games. With the regular quantity, plus the constructive matchup in opposition to the Bengals' protection, the over on Diggs hits this Sunday.

George Kittle receiving yards OVER 54.5 (-120)

Solak: The Panthers are surrendering a whopping 2.11 yards per route run to opposing tight ends this season — the worst quantity in soccer. That quantity has been with a largely wholesome defensive backfield. However for Monday evening, beginning LB Trevin Wallace will virtually definitely be out, and it appears fellow LB Christian Rozeboom will sit out the sport as effectively. I feel the most effective angle to assault the Panthers' depleted LB room is not with the working sport, because the Panthers' line of defense nonetheless has an enormous benefit over San Francisco's offensive entrance. Christian McCaffrey passing overs is likely to be good, however Brock Purdy targets McCaffrey at a decrease fee than Mac Jones did, so McCaffrey's numbers are nonetheless inflated. Kittle is, to me, the most suitable choice. With the massive unfold, I do not essentially need to be on alternate strains. But when the Panthers preserve this sport shut within the first quarter, I will search for some alt strains on Kittle's receiving. In contrast to most tight ends, Kittle creates explosive catches, so he can go from a quiet evening to an enormous evening in a rush.

Travis Kelce receiving yards OVER 52.5 (-115)

Bowen: Kelce had 13 targets in Week 11 in opposition to the Denver Broncos, and he has topped the 52-yard receiving mark in six straight video games. Plus, the Colts are giving up a mean of 72.6 receiving yards per sport to opposing tight ends (fourth most within the league). Let's persist with Kelce to hit the over — once more.

Devaughn Vele receiving yards UNDER 22.5 (-110)

Solak: An enormous, massive quantity right here for Vele, who has not cleared 22.5 receiving yards as soon as this season. However the receiver room above Vele has been thinned. WR2 Rashid Shaheed was traded to the Seahawks, and WR3 Brandin Cooks was launched this previous week, leaving Vele the WR2 behind Chris Olave. The difficulty? Vele's 30 routes led the Saints in Week 10, even with Cooks nonetheless on the sphere. He had three targets, all deep downfield, however caught just one for 15 yards. The Saints use Vele as a vertical participant, and people are low-percentage targets, particularly in opposition to an Atlanta Falcons crew with a strong CB room that desires to play tight protection and may return Mike Hughes for this sport. I anticipate a run-heavy and multi-TE offensive method from the Saints, who're favored on this sport and may keep away from an enormous lump of second-half dropbacks. Vele is likely to be WR2, however he is solely fourth within the goal pecking order behind Olave, Juwan Johnson and Alvin Kamara. I might choose underneath on receptions, however 2.5 is juiced to -170. I will be searching for underneath 1.5 at plus cash.

Rashid Shaheed longest reception OVER 20.5 yards (-110)

Bowen: In two video games with the Seahawks, Shaheed has a vertical route fee of 56.4%. Huge quantity there. So, we all know Shaheed is being deployed down the sphere on the third degree. And I feel he connects with quarterback Sam Darnold on a shot play throw in opposition to the Titans.