US tariffs pose main threat to India’s progress: Crisil Intelligence

Excessive tariffs imposed by the US on Indian items pose a significant threat to the nation's progress, Crisil Intelligence mentioned in its September report.

The tariffs will influence each Indian items exports and investments, the report added.

Nonetheless, home consumption, pushed by benign inflation and fee cuts, is anticipated to assist progress, it mentioned.
The nation's GDP rose to a five-quarter excessive of seven.8 per cent within the first quarter of fiscal 2025-26, up from 7.4 per cent in the same quarter within the earlier 12 months.

Nominal GDP progress, nevertheless, slowed to eight.8 per cent from 10.8 per cent throughout the identical interval, it added.

The report mentioned shopper worth index (CPI) inflation is more likely to soften to three.5 per cent within the present fiscal from 4.6 per cent within the earlier 12 months.Wholesome agricultural progress is anticipated to maintain meals inflation below verify, although the influence of extra rain was but to be totally assessed.Decrease crude costs and benign international commodity costs are anticipated to include non-food inflation, the report added.

On the financial coverage, the report mentioned the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI) is more likely to implement yet another fee reduce this fiscal, adopted by a pause.

The central financial institution's financial coverage committee had reduce the repo fee by 100 foundation factors between February and June 2025 and is now awaiting the complete transmission of previous cuts.