In Parong, on the opposite aspect of the river, tensions have been operating excessive. Anti-dam protests, led by the native Adi neighborhood, have been escalating. Authorities have been hoping to start work discreetly on the Begging aspect and to ferry one of many machines throughout by boat later.
However the resistance was swift and fierce. Every week later, protesters descended on Begging in giant numbers, severing the village's lone connection to the surface world—a fragile hanging bridge—earlier than turning their fury on the gear. The drilling machines have been broken past quick restore.
Although confronted with mounting unrest, the police held again, avoiding a crackdown that would inflame battle within the frontier area. The federal government, cautious of a confrontation, pulled the plug on the operation, albeit briefly. Engineers of the hydropower firm NHPC, who had been stationed on the proposed drilling website, quietly packed up and retreated to Pasighat, the biggest city alongside the Siang, leaving the embattled riverbank eerily silent as soon as extra.
However the lull received't final lengthy. The federal government is resolute in its push to construct what it calls the Siang Higher Multipurpose Mission (SUMP) — an enormous, Rs 1,50,000 crore enterprise. At its coronary heart lies a towering, 267-m-tall dam with a storage capability of 9.2 billion cubic metres (bcm), envisioned as a strategic buffer in case China abruptly releases water upstream. The undertaking is anticipated to have an put in capability of 11,000 MW, with Arunachal Pradesh entitled to 12% of the facility freed from value, together with a share within the income.
The timing isn't any coincidence. Simply final week, Beijing broke floor on what's set to be the world's largest dam on the higher reaches of the Brahmaputra. With that, the water chessboard of the Japanese Himalayas has formally been set in movement.Now, a urgent query looms: will India's counter-dam gambit act as a reputable deterrent or tip the stability, deepening the ecological fault strains in an already fragile panorama?“It (the Chinese language dam) goes to trigger an existential risk to our tribes and our livelihoods. It's fairly critical as a result of China may even use this as a type of ‘water bomb',” Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu advised PTI on July 9, simply days earlier than Beijing formally introduced the graduation of building. CM, nonetheless, didn't reply to ET's queries on whether or not SUMP may function an efficient countermeasure to China's mega dam — or on experiences that the undertaking's pre-feasibility examine has stalled amid robust resistance from native communities.
FIRST MOVE BY CHINA
China was the primary to disturb the stillness of the Japanese Himalayas alongside the McMahon Line. In 2020, Beijing introduced the bold hydropower undertaking over the Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet, incorporating it into the nation's 14th 5-Yr Plan. The timing was no coincidence—Indian and Chinese language troops have been engaged in fierce clashes within the Galwan Valley on the western entrance.
For New Delhi, the message was unmistakable. The spectre of a “water bomb”—unleashed from a mega dam close to the Brahmaputra's Nice Bend, the place the river plunges practically 2 km— was not a distant chance. It had turn into a urgent strategic concern. In response, India floated its personal countermeasure: the SUMP, a dam on its aspect of the river. However whereas China has already damaged floor— with Premier Li Qiang formally launching building on July 19 in a high-profile ceremony in Nyingchi, additionally calling it the “undertaking of the century”—India stays caught on the beginning line. Pre-feasibility research, slowed down by bureaucratic delays and rising grassroots resistance, have but to take off.
Beijing has additionally introduced the formation of a brand new state-owned enterprise— China Yajiang Group—to supervise the development of what's set to turn into the biggest hydropower dam, surpassing the enduring Three Gorges Dam. Based on China's state-run information company Xinhua, the undertaking, estimated at round 1.2 trillion yuan (roughly $167.8 billion), will characteristic 5 cascade hydropower stations and generate 300 million megawatthours (MWh) of electrical energy yearly. Compared, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze river—at present the world's largest energy station by put in capability—produces simply 88 million MWh per yr. The brand new dam is anticipated to turn into operational within the 2030s.
China's capital markets responded positively. As reported by Reuters on July 21, the CSI Building & Engineering Index surged 4% to hit a seven-month excessive, with shares of Energy Building Company of China and Arcplus Group PLC each hovering to their 10% every day buying and selling limits.
CASCADING CONCERNS
Whereas capital markets could also be celebrating—pushed by the lure of huge earnings—the deeper considerations surrounding the undertaking stay largely unaddressed. Ought to there be a dam of such staggering scale within the seismically energetic and fragile Himalayan belt?
Equally troubling is the spectre of water diversion. If Beijing alters the move of the Yarlung Zangbo, the ripple results would cascade downstream, probably disrupting livelihoods not solely in Assam Valley, however all the way in which to Bangladesh, the place the river is named the Jamuna.
“Legendary singer Bhupen Hazarika described the Brahmaputra as Mahabahu, a logo of power and grandeur, a mighty power that binds collectively communities of various hues,” says Kuladhar Saikia, former Assam DGP and Sahitya Akademi Award-winning creator. Expressing concern over the potential for the river operating dry throughout winter as soon as the Chinese language mega dam turns into operational, he provides, “The Brahmaputra isn't just an financial lifeline — it's the most important artery of our tradition, custom, language, literature and creativity.”
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has sought to downplay considerations over China's dam undertaking. He argues that almost 70% of the Brahmaputra's move comes from rainfall inside Indian territory — particularly Arunachal Pradesh and Assam—and Bhutan, suggesting that the river isn't closely reliant on glacial sources from throughout the border. In a number of interactions with the press, he has maintained that the ultimate evaluation will relaxation with the Centre.
WILL BRAHMAPUTRA SHRINK?
Whereas it's true that the Brahmaputra is an unlimited and resilient river system and never depending on a single supply, the information tells a extra nuanced story. Based on idea papers for the SUMP, which ET has seen, 84% of the river's quantity in Arunachal Pradesh in the course of the winter months—from November to April—is fed by water originating in China.
Which means, if China have been to divert the upstream move, the Brahmaputra — significantly in Higher Assam, the place most main tributaries are but to merge — may shrink to a mere stream in the course of the winter months, jeopardising the area's ecological stability and wealthy biodiversity.
Towards this backdrop, the query turns into much more pressing: what occurs when there are two dams, one every on both aspect of the McMahon Line?
Throughout a go to to the 2 villages which might be the proposed SUMP websites—Parong and Dite Dime (Ugeng being the third website)—in January, this author encountered a palpable sense of concern and resistance among the many native folks. “We're not simply opposing the dam, we're towards any feasibility research being performed right here,” stated Tato Pabin, a resident of Parong, a village of 125 households. “Our orange farms, which thrive within the low-lying areas alongside the river, can be fully worn out.”
Based on an official, who spoke on situation of anonymity, Parong has emerged because the most certainly location for the dam. The opposite two websites, Dite Dime and Ugeng—each located additional upstream—are reportedly not below energetic consideration.
VILLAGES TO BE AFFECTED
Whereas the total extent of the influence will solely be identified after pre-feasibility research are performed, preliminary estimates recommend that round 59 villages might be affected. Of those, at the very least 15 villages could should be relocated solely. Up to now, solely three villages—Pangkang, Riga and Riew—have given their consent to the undertaking.
There's one more potential fallout. A piece of the prevailing street that winds its strategy to the strategically very important Tuting Superior Touchdown Floor is prone to be submerged. If the federal government decides to maneuver ahead with the undertaking, one in every of its first duties can be to construct a brand-new street, at a considerably larger elevation, to keep up essential navy and civilian connectivity on this delicate frontier area.
