Sectors like textiles, auto parts, agriculture, and gems and jewelry are essentially the most susceptible, with MSMEs bearing the brunt, stated Yadav.
He estimates that 2,00,000 to three,00,000 jobs are at fast threat, with textiles alone, which is labour-intensive, probably shedding 1,00,000 jobs, if the tariff regime continues past the following six months.
“Equally, within the gem and jewelry sector, together with models in Surat and SEEPZ in Mumbai, 1000's of jobs are in danger as a result of diminished demand and price escalation within the US market,” he added.
Nevertheless, TeamLease Companies Senior Vice President Balasubramanian Anantha Narayanan doesn't see the potential of job losses, saying India is basically a home consumption-driven financial system, not like China. “At this cut-off date, we aren't seeing any indicators of a slowdown or lack of jobs. This additionally by extension implies that our jobs are largely in service of home demand too, except some sectors like ITeS amongst others. Our exports to the USA are USD 87 billion, which is roughly about 2.2 per cent of our general GDP. Largely pharma, electronics and many others. will not be affected for now, which can additional restrict the export publicity to industries resembling textiles, gems and jewelry amongst others,” he stated. Furthermore, these tariffs come into impact later this month, and a few negotiations are more likely to occur earlier than that, he added. “On the opposite facet, we have additionally had a number of positives by the use of the not too long ago closed FTA with the UK and different international locations. Even when these US tariffs do come about, we'll positively work out a means of redirecting or diversifying our commerce to different markets. Due to this fact, at this cut-off date, we aren't seeing any indicators of a slowdown or lack of jobs. It is an evolving scenario and we'll get to know extra sooner or later of time,” he stated.
The slowdown in jobs progress is rather more because of the general slowdown in international demand and consumption, uncertainty round tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts in varied elements of the globe, he added.
In the meantime, CIEL HR MD and CEO Aditya Mishra stated the US tariff state of affairs is unsettling for Indian exporters, particularly in sectors which might be closely depending on the American market, resembling electronics, textiles, gems and jewelry, auto parts, leather-based, footwear, shrimp, and engineering items.
“Even industries exterior the direct tariff ambit, like prescription drugs, are feeling the ripple impact by means of costlier upstream chemical substances and supplies,” he famous.
Nevertheless, as negotiations are anticipated, this part of uncertainty might persist by means of the third quarter of this monetary yr, stated Mishra.
“Whereas widespread layoffs seem unlikely at this stage, firms are already in cost-containment mode, lowering discretionary spending, streamlining manufacturing, and freezing hiring. The fast stress will probably be on short-term and contract roles, significantly shop-floor employees, artisans, gross sales and logistics employees, and a few mid-level managers in export-led models. It will have a cascading impact on 1000's of MSMEs within the provide chain, which collectively account for a big share of employment,” he added.
This case may additionally not directly have an effect on sectors like IT and GCCs, he stated, including that the IT sector is already experiencing sluggish spending and hiring, and this extra uncertainty might delay its restoration additional.
“GCCs (international functionality centres) are more likely to take a cautious strategy to hiring and investments till there's larger readability on commerce negotiations and market stability. If the tariff scenario persists, India's market share within the US might shrink, resulting in longer-term repercussions for exporters and the industries that rely on them,” he added.
