NFL Week 9 predictions, fantasy sleepers, upset picks, bets

There are 13 video games left in Week 9 after the Ravens beat the Dolphins on Thursday night time. To prepare for the remainder of the motion, our NFL analysts have you ever lined on last-minute prep.

First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat developments that may very well be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy soccer author Eric Moody runs via 5 gamers who're rostered in below 50% of ESPN fantasy soccer leagues as of Saturday and may very well be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three doubtlessly massive surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen selecting one key matchup to look at. Lastly, sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado provides her favourite guess of Week 9.

Has effectivity really been an issue for 49ers operating again Christian McCaffrey this season? Who has the sting in a strength-on-strength Broncos-Texans matchup? Is there fantasy upside for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold or Bears tight finish Colston Loveland in Week 9? And will the Steelers finish the Colts' four-game win streak with an upset?

We get into all that, plus loads of key intel on the AFC Championship Sport rematch between the Chiefs and Payments. Let's begin there.

Soar to:
Stat developments | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Finest guess of the week

Walder: Three key stat developments that would decide Week 9 winners

Can the Payments' protection push the Chiefs out of their consolation zone?

No crew likes to cross greater than the Chiefs, and nearly no crew likes to cross in the course of the sphere greater than them. Fifty-six % of their targets land between the numbers, second highest within the league. However that may very well be a difficulty towards Buffalo's protection, which permits the third-lowest goal fee to the center of the sphere (43%).

Along with that, the Payments are a run-inducing protection. The cross fee over expectation towards them this season is a league-low minus-10%. (Buffalo having the fourth-worst run protection when it comes to EPA per play absolutely has one thing to do with that quantity.)

So what does that imply for Kansas Metropolis's offense? As an alternative of counting on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice's strengths in the course of the sphere, this may very well be decided by Xavier Worthy's potential on the skin and/or deep. Manufacturing from operating backs Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith may very well be essential, too. Beginning operating again Isiah Pacheco isn't anticipated to play after spraining a knee ligament final week.

Will 49ers operating again Christian McCaffrey discover effectivity towards the Giants?

Are you aware who has the worst rush yards over expectation within the NFL this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats? Imagine it or not, it is McCaffrey at minus-92. It has been ignored as a result of he has had such a productive season within the cross sport, however McCaffrey and his 3.5 yards per carry have hardly been environment friendly.

Maybe an antidote is coming in Week 9. The Giants are permitting 5.7 yards per carry this season, most within the NFL. However it will get even higher for the 49ers. They run outdoors zone 52% of the time (second most), and the Giants are permitting even extra yards per carry towards these performs (6.7).

Who will win within the trenches, the Broncos' offensive line or the Texans' cross rush?

This can be a pure strength-on-strength battle. The Broncos have maybe the very best pass-protecting offensive line within the league. They're No. 1 in cross block win fee (72.5%), and tackles Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey are tied for fifth in PBWR at their place.

That potential has been key to the crew's offensive success with quarterback Bo Nix, however will probably be below a distinct degree of scrutiny Sunday. Houston's Will Anderson Jr. has had a scorching begin with a 27.2% cross rush win fee that ranks second at edge, and Danielle Hunter is ninth in the identical class (20.2%). If the Broncos can maintain off these two edge rushers, they will be in fine condition. However that is a giant ask.

Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers it's essential to decide up — and might begin this week

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks (35.4% of rostered)

Darnold struggled towards Houston earlier than Seattle's bye, scoring simply 8.6 fantasy factors, however that has been the case for nearly each quarterback towards the Texans' protection. They've allowed 10.5 fantasy factors per sport to the place.

Earlier than that sport, Darnold had scored 16 or extra fantasy factors in 5 straight contests, together with two with not less than 20. He has one of many league's high receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and faces a Commanders protection that has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers (26.7% rostered)

Bourne is an intriguing choice for Week 9. With large receiver Ricky Pearsall nonetheless sidelined and quarterback Brock Purdy's standing unsure, Bourne ought to stay the 49ers' No. 2 receiver. He has already proven chemistry with backup Mac Jones from their time in New England and has delivered regular fantasy manufacturing in current weeks. Dealing with a Giants protection that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per sport to large receivers, Bourne has a transparent path to focus on quantity and upside.

Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears (24.1% rostered)

Loveland may very well be leaned on extra this week with Cole Kmet nonetheless restricted in apply and a number of Bears receivers coping with accidents. The rookie tight finish performed over 80% of the offensive snaps and noticed 5 targets towards the Ravens. What makes Loveland much more interesting is the matchup, as no protection permits extra fantasy factors per sport to tight ends than Cincinnati.

Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (12.8% rostered)

Kareem Hunt is anticipated to begin for Kansas Metropolis after Isiah Pacheco's harm, however Smith also needs to see extra touches. He has recorded not less than three receptions in 4 of his previous 5 video games, and although he hasn't been closely used as a runner, he may very well be viable if given extra carries. It additionally helps that the Payments have allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per sport to operating backs.

Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (10.9% rostered)

Pierce is the definition of big-play upside, averaging 21.4 yards per reception this season. He has topped 60 receiving yards in 4 of six video games and has seen not less than 5 targets in 4 contests, together with 10 targets in Week 7. The Steelers' protection has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors per sport to large receivers and 13 passing touchdowns, placing Pierce in place for an additional explosive efficiency.

Solak: Do not be stunned if …

The Bears bounce proper again towards the Bengals

Chicago was on a four-game profitable streak once they caught the Ravens at an absolute nightmare spot final week — after a bye, at house, extremely motivated to make a playoff push and returning a ton of gamers from harm. The Ravens regarded like an elite crew once more, and the Bears are nonetheless a step or two beneath that standing. However the Bengals? Chicago ought to run roughshod on Cincinnati's protection, and it'd lastly discover some cross rush towards the Bengals' shaky inside.

The Steelers upset the Colts

It's exactly when everybody doubts him essentially the most that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has his best performances. The 7-1 Colts are due for a letdown sport, and touring to Pittsburgh with a depleted secondary feels harmful. The Colts have been good at producing strain with 4 rushers, however accidents to Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis query their depth at defensive position, too. Indy ought to lead for a lot of the sport with that large offense, but when that is inside one rating within the fourth quarter, be careful for a masterclass from Steelers kicker Chris Boswell.

Rumors in regards to the Vikings buying and selling for a QB intensify

We're getting J.J. McCarthy's third begin this week, and it is a doozy. The Vikings are on the street in Detroit towards an amazing run protection and a complicated, aggressive secondary. I count on a ton of third-and-longs for McCarthy and a few shaky cross safety. If this sport will get ugly simply two days earlier than the NFL commerce deadline, I would count on Minnesota to make some requires a viable QB2 who might moonlight as QB1. The Colts' Anthony Richardson Sr.? The Eagles' Tanner McKee? The Chiefs' Gardner Minshew?

Bowen: Key matchup to look at

Chiefs coach Andy Reid vs. the Payments' foundational coverages

Walder talked about the Payments' energy at defending the center of the sphere, however one other wrinkle to contemplate is their reliance on zone protection. Buffalo runs zone on 69.5% of opponent dropbacks (eighth most within the NFL), so Reid can work to scheme throws for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Assume leveled routes right here, with vertical clear-out routes to elevate the safeties and open the protection voids for intermediate targets.

A selected participant to look at? Travis Kelce, who simply had a season-high 99 receiving yards towards the Commanders. I feel he might be a significant a part of the matchup.

Maldonado: My favourite guess for Week 9

UNDER 52.5 factors in Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Buffalo Payments

Buffalo isn't constructed just like the previous model that lived on chunk performs. The Payments are run-focused, averaging a league-high 164.4 speeding yards per sport, and are keen to take what's given to them. In the meantime, Kansas Metropolis dictates tempo, makes use of the run and leans on possession and persistence.

The Payments' accidents on the inside defensive position (defensive deal with Ed Oliver is out indefinitely with a torn biceps) might matter, however that doesn't routinely flip this right into a shootout. As an alternative, this matchup might flip right into a ball management script, as each groups are inside the high three leaguewide in time of possession. This one might be tight, bodily and determined by execution — not explosive performs.