Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season is right here, and our NFL analysts have you ever lined within the eleventh hour. Do not miss our last-minute prep for a loaded slate.
This is what we've: First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat tendencies that could possibly be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy soccer author Eric Moody runs by 5 gamers who're rostered in beneath 50% of ESPN fantasy soccer leagues as of Saturday and could possibly be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Matt Bowen predicting three doubtlessly massive surprises and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado giving her favourite guess for Week 5.
Will the Giants' offense roll in opposition to the Saints? Can Lions defensive finish Aidan Hutchinson get a number of sacks in opposition to the Bengals? Will Browns CB Denzel Ward snag an interception for the second straight sport? Which two QBs have sneaky fantasy worth this week? And will we see a bunch of factors within the Raiders-Colts sport? Let's dive in.
Bounce to:
Stat tendencies | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Greatest guess
Walder: Three key stat tendencies that would decide Week 5 winners
Can Giants receivers Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton step up in opposition to the Saints?
The numbers recommend they will. New Orleans has one of the pass-inducing defenses within the NFL, rating second highest in move fee over expectation allowed (plus-2%), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. It is simple to see why. Whereas the Saints' protection permits minus-0.10 EPA per designed carry (ninth greatest), it permits 0.25 EPA per dropback (fourth worst).
Twenty-one % of passes in opposition to New Orleans are thrown to receivers within the slot, which must particularly assist Robinson, who has lined up within the slot 69% of the time. It does not finish there, because the Saints have allowed 8.6 air yards per try this season (fourth most), which ought to play proper into the arms of Slayton, a deep risk who's averaging 12.7 air yards per goal.
Is Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson headed for one more multi-sack day in opposition to the Bengals?
I am slightly stunned to see the Lions main the whole league in defensive sack fee (10.6%), however Hutchinson is sizzling since coming back from leg surgical procedure. He has a sack in three straight video games, together with two final Sunday in opposition to the Browns. He additionally ranked within the prime 5 in move rush win fee at edge that week. Now he and the Lions get to face a Bengals crew that's struggling mightily in move safety.
As a crew, the Bengals rank lifeless final in move block win fee (44.6%). Towards the Broncos final week, each tackles Amarius Mims and Orlando Brown Jr. ranked within the backside 5 in move block win fee at their place. Add in that backup QB Jake Browning has been sacked 8% of the time (higher-than-average fee), and that the Bengals ought to should move loads as underdogs. So Hutchinson (and maybe Al-Quadin Muhammad) ought to be in for a productive move dashing day.
Can RB Woody Marks and the Texans have dashing success in opposition to the Ravens?
Marks, a fourth-round rookie, burst onto the scene in opposition to the Titans with 17 carries for 69 yards and a dashing landing; he additionally had 50 extra yards and a landing within the receiving sport. And there is motive to imagine that success may proceed this week, due to a schematic change this season.
Below new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, the Texans have shifted from a heavy exterior zone crew to a heavy duo crew, a downhill scheme that makes use of double-team blocks. Because the begin of final season, the Ravens have allowed 3.4 yards per carry to exterior zone however 5.0 to duo. The Lions, most notably, gashed Baltimore with duo performs (9.5 yards per carry!) in Week 3.
Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers it is advisable to decide up — and might begin this week
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers (39.6% rostered)
Chuba Hubbard has been dominated out of Sunday's sport in opposition to the Dolphins with a calf damage, placing Dowdle in line for a heavy workload. He ought to discover success in opposition to a Miami defensive entrance that ranks twenty eighth in run cease win fee and has allowed the seventh-most fantasy factors per sport to working backs this season. Final season with the Cowboys, Dowdle averaged 12.3 fantasy factors in video games the place he noticed 15 or extra touches.
Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants (36.6% rostered)
Dart hit the bottom working in opposition to the Chargers in his first profession begin, not solely main the Giants to a win but in addition delivering 19.8 fantasy factors. He generates manufacturing with each his arm and his legs, and as Seth talked about above, he has succesful targets in Robinson, Slayton and Theo Johnson. The rookie attracts a positive matchup in opposition to a Saints protection that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks.
1:21
Warner: You may really feel the spark Jaxson Dart gave the Giants
Kurt Warner joins “The Wealthy Eisen Present” to recap Jaxson Dart's efficiency vs. the Chargers.
Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee Titans (35.5% rostered)
Ayomanor is the lone shiny spot in a Titans offense that ranks thirty first in complete yards per sport (210.5) and thirty second in factors per sport (12.8). He leads Tennessee in targets (25), receiving yards (151) and touchdowns (2), averaging 9.8 fantasy factors per sport. That is a strong flooring, however his ceiling could possibly be even greater in opposition to a Cardinals protection that has allowed the third-most receptions per sport to vast receivers.
Brenton Unusual, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (35.1% rostered)
Unusual has posted not less than 10 fantasy factors and 7 targets in two straight video games. He additionally leads the Jaguars in receptions (19) and receiving yards (182). He presents fantasy managers a excessive flooring, with not less than 4 catches and 45 yards in three video games this season. Unusual hasn't discovered the top zone but, however that would change in opposition to the Chiefs, who may prioritize stopping the Jaguars' prolific working sport within the purple zone.
Bryce Younger, QB, Carolina Panthers (15.2% rostered)
Younger is off to a poor begin for the second straight season, and a robust efficiency in opposition to Miami could possibly be essential to getting again on observe. He's averaging simply 12.9 fantasy factors per sport, however the Dolphins' protection has allowed the second-most fantasy factors per sport to opposing quarterbacks. Carolina can be smart to lean on its run sport behind an offensive line that ranks seventh in run block win fee, after which construct off that with play-action passes in opposition to a subpar Miami move rush.
Bowen: Do not be stunned if …
Giants RB Cam Skattebo scores a landing in opposition to the Saints
With Skattebo taking on the lead function in New York, his quantity and scoring alternatives are up in Brian Daboll's offense. Skattebo scored a landing in two of the previous three video games and had seven goal-to-goal carries. Plus, together with his pass-catching potential (12 receptions), Skattebo may discover the top zone on an beneath throw from quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Saints has allowed 9 touchdowns by the air this season, which is tied for third worst within the league.
Browns CB Denzel Ward will get one other interception versus Vikings
Minnesota quarterback Carson Wentz threw two interceptions final week in opposition to the Steelers, and his 38.7 QBR was third worst out of all quarterbacks who began the previous two weeks. Behind a Browns defensive entrance that has generated a strain fee of 37.8%, the fifth highest within the league, Ward can have alternatives to make performs on the ball, particularly when Wentz's decision-making declines late within the down. Ward notched his first interception of the season versus the Lions in Week 4.
Lions WR Jameson Williams catches a move over 25 yards in opposition to the Bengals
The Bengals' protection has allowed six completions of 25 or extra yards this season, and I like Williams to create an explosive play. He has seen seven targets of 25 or extra air yards by 4 video games, together with 4 in opposition to the Browns (just one resulted in a reception). Search for the Lions to arrange Jared Goff on a deep shot right here, with Williams stretching the protection on the third degree.
Maldonado: My favourite guess for Week 5
OVER 47.5 factors in Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts transfer the ball higher than nearly anybody, main the league in success fee (52.8%) and averaging over 7.0 yards on first down. The Raiders' protection has struggled to get stops, particularly within the purple zone, the place opponents are scoring touchdowns practically 89% of the time. Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones also needs to thrive in opposition to Las Vegas' heavy Cowl 3 appears to be like.
Whereas the Raiders' offense is inconsistent, Indy's protection is not precisely shutting anybody down both, rating close to the underside in success fee and purple zone effectivity. Each groups ought to end drives, and if the Raiders are chasing factors late, that solely helps this matchup to hit the over.
