NFL Week 4 betting information: Picks, props and why the Bears can hold it shut

Worth is worth, irrespective of the place — or how — you discover it. And that is what we'll goal to do every week on this area — discover worth.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in along with his personal distinctive fashion.

Bowen and Seth Walder deliver completely different views to how they strategy sports activities betting. A former NFL security, Bowen predicts optimistic matchups and recreation winners from tape examine and his understanding of the league. Walder depends on statistical fashions to select plus-expected worth bets.

These weekly picks is not going to be restricted to a sure wager sort. From spreads and cash traces to totals and even defensive participant props, a great worth is likely to be discovered anyplace.

Outcomes shall be tracked all through the season, with flat one-unit wagers for every listed wager. As at all times, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

With that, let's dive into Week 4.

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Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Recreation bets

Chicago Bears to cowl +1.5 (-125) at Las Vegas Raiders

We're seeing improvement from quarterback Caleb Williams beneath coach Ben Johnson. Extra timing and rhythm as a thrower, a rising sense of calm within the pocket. That is teaching. And Williams can distribute the ball to a number of targets, with Rome Odunze (16 receptions, 227 yards, 4 TDs) rising as his No. 1. Sure, the Bears are nonetheless banged up within the secondary, however the Raiders' incapacity to create run recreation manufacturing with Ashton Jeanty (3.1 YPC) limits their offensive tempo. Let's take the Bears, who are actually getting factors after opening as favorites. — Bowen

Inexperienced Bay Packers staff complete OVER 27.5 (-110)

Jordan Love and the Packers had been shut down by the Cleveland Browns' protection in Week 3, however that unit is without doubt one of the league's greatest. In Week 4, nevertheless, Inexperienced Bay will get a way more optimistic matchup versus the Dallas protection. The Cowboys are permitting 30.7 factors per recreation and a league-worst 288 passing yards per recreation. Keep in mind, because of an absence of impression gamers, the Cowboys are additionally the NFL's heaviest zone protection protection (87% of protection snaps). Matt LaFleur will dial up some zone solutions on this one, whereas Micah Parsons and the Inexperienced Bay cross rush create optimistic discipline place (and scoring alternatives) for Love. — Bowen

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers complete factors UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Each the Eagles and Bucs are giving up round 21 factors per recreation heading into Week 4. Mike Evans (hamstring) may very well be down. And the Eagles actually wish to play a sure fashion of soccer that leads with heavy run recreation quantity, which permits them to dictate tempo. I additionally belief the defensive fronts of Philly and Tampa on this one to restrict explosive performs, so let's take the beneath. — Bowen

Pittsburgh Steelers to cowl +2.5 (-110) at Minnesota Vikings

I do not love the Steelers' offense, and we all know Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is a chaos creator along with his pressures and late protection rotations. However I'm intrigued by the Steelers' protection and its capacity to take the ball away. Pittsburgh pressured 5 turnovers within the Week 3 win over the New England Patriots, and so they have no less than one in each recreation performed this season. Plus, the Steelers' cross rush (eight sacks on the season) can get dwelling. That may very well be hassle for Vikings quarterback Carson Wentz, who tends to increase performs to his detriment, whereas his decision-making slips late within the down. Take the Steelers to cowl in what may very well be an unsightly soccer recreation over in Eire. — Bowen

Walder's defensive props

Mason Graham to win Defensive Rookie of the 12 months (+1800)

I have been ready for a defensive rookie to have a breakout recreation and justify a Defensive Rookie of the 12 months wager. Lastly, in Week 3, we bought it. Graham recorded a 43% cross rush win price within the Browns' win over the Packers — the best PRWR recreation at defensive sort out by anybody in over a yr! Contemplating this efficiency got here at a time when Abdul Carter's begin to the season has been awfully quiet, together with enjoying 28% of his defensive snaps at off-ball linebacker, I believe the chance for another person to emerge is true there. Graham, I consider, is that man, and I am shocked to see the chances so lengthy for him even after his Week 3 efficiency. I might not be shocked in any respect if his odds fall precipitously over the following few weeks.

Offensive participant props

Khalil Shakir to go OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

Shakir has posted over 45 yards receiving in two of three video games performed this season, and his route tree creates high-percentage throws for quarterback Josh Allen. Shakir has 121 yards receiving on the season, with 62.8% of his complete yardage coming after the catch. Perimeter screens, quicks to the center of the sphere, crossers. Catch and run. That works versus a New Orleans Saints protection permitting 7.1 yards per try (twenty third within the league). — Bowen

Romeo Doubs to attain Anytime Touchdown (+185)

Doubs scored a landing within the Week 2 win over the Washington Commanders, and he has seen three purple zone targets by means of three video games. Doubs may have alternatives to isolate because the boundary X receiver in scoring place on Sunday evening towards a Dallas protection that has given up seven landing passes this season (tied for second most within the league). — Bowen

Jahan Dotson to report 30+ receiving yards (+425)

The Eagles are one of the run-heavy groups within the league, however towards the Buccaneers they will want Jalen Hurts to come back by means of along with his arm. That is as a result of no staff within the league has been higher by way of EPA per play at stopping the run. There are a number of potential beneficiaries (and my mannequin favored DeVonta Smith 80+ receiving yards to some extent, too), however Dotson actually stands out at this worth. He is removed from the flashiest participant, however he has run a route on 67% of the Eagles' dropbacks this yr, together with 84% final week. And he has additionally blown previous this quantity as soon as this yr, when he recorded 59 receiving yards in Week 1. — Walder

Kayshon Boutte to report 80+ receiving yards (+1000)

Amongst all broad receivers with no less than 50 routes this season, nobody has run a better price of go routes and deep fades than Boutte (37% mixed). These are sometimes not essentially the most environment friendly routes by way of yards per route run, however that is not precisely what we're involved with right here. We're enjoying the alternate line as a result of we're capturing for upside, and Boutte and all these deep pictures give us precisely that. — Walder

Kareem Hunt to go OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-110)

Hunt will proceed to work in a backfield rotation with Isiah Pacheco, however he has seen 18 carries over his previous two video games, with 31 or extra yards dashing in every. And all of us watched the Detroit Lions carve up the Baltimore Ravens' run protection on Monday evening. Transferring defenders off the ball. I just like the over to hit right here for Hunt on Sunday at Arrowhead. — Bowen

Josh Jacobs to go OVER 2.5 receptions (+135)

I'll hold driving this operating backs vs. Cowboys receptions wave. Operating backs catch passes on 15% of zone protection dropbacks, in comparison with simply 8% towards man. The large disparity stems from the truth that it is simpler for backs to be a checkdown choice towards zone, the place they'll sit between defenders. And guess who has run extra zone protection than anybody in 2025? Dallas. By three weeks the Cowboys have deployed zone protection 87% of the time, the best by means of three weeks of any staff in our dataset again to 2017. — Walder

Justin Herbert to go OVER 0.5 interceptions (+190)

I typically write on this area about how a lot of interception forecasting is about recreation state of affairs. Quarterbacks on a shedding staff need to throw extra and take extra dangers, and the inverse is true for quarterbacks on a staff that is forward on the scoreboard. And that is true — to some extent. The opposite factor I typically point out is how tightly clustered interception chances in a given recreation are round 50%. When my interception mannequin seems at Herbert dealing with a New York Giants staff with Jaxson Dart making his professional debut, it sees Herbert throwing an interception as unlikely — however not that unlikely. It makes the honest worth on the over at +128. To get +190 seems like an awfully good worth. — Walder

Spencer Rattler to go UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (-110)

It is easy to see why this line is as excessive as it's. The Saints are large 15.5-point underdogs to the Payments, and one has to determine New Orleans shall be down massive shortly and trying to throw. Rattler has had video games with 46, 34 and 39 cross makes an attempt in three losses this season. However there's extra to it than that. The Saints have really been one of many extra conservative groups within the league by way of run-pass ratio if we modify for recreation context with NFL Subsequent Gen Stats' cross price over expectation, which has New Orleans at negative-9%, fourth lowest within the league. On prime of that, Buffalo's protection has really induced the bottom cross price over expectation from its opponents (unfavorable 13%). — Walder