NFL Week 1 predictions, fantasy sleepers, upset picks, bets

Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is already underway, with the Eagles beating the Cowboys within the opener and the Chargers defeating the Chiefs in Brazil. We have been getting ready for the common season for weeks with previews and rankings, however simply in case you continue to want some last-minute intel for the 14 video games remaining on Sunday and Monday, our NFL analysts have you ever lined on the eleventh hour.

First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat traits that could possibly be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy soccer author Eric Moody runs by 5 gamers who're rostered in beneath 50% of ESPN fantasy soccer leagues as of Saturday and could possibly be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three doubtlessly huge surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen choosing one key matchup to observe. Lastly, sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado provides her favourite wager of Week 1.

Might Jahmyr Gibbs have an enormous receiving recreation? Will the Bengals lastly win in Week 1? Which two Jaguars must you add in your fantasy leagues? Let's dive in.

Bounce to:
Stat traits | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Greatest wager of the week

Walder: Three key stat traits that would decide Week 1 winners

Is Lions operating again Jahmyr Gibbs in line for an enormous receiving day towards the Packers' zone protection?

One in all my favourite stat splits is the discrepancy between a operating again's receiving numbers towards man and zone protection. Backs had been focused on 10% of man protection dropbacks final season and caught passes on 8% of such dropbacks. However towards zone, those self same numbers jumped to 18% and 15%, respectively. That is virtually doubling the reception price when dealing with zone appears!

Effectively, take a guess who ranked third in receiving yards amongst operating backs and which staff ranked second in zone protection price final season. That is proper, Gibbs and the Packers. He needs to be arrange for an enormous day.

Will Buccaneers edge rusher Haason Reddick get the perfect of Falcons backup OT Elijah Wilkinson?

That is the primary check to see what Reddick has left within the tank after his misplaced 12 months with the Jets. It needs to be a straightforward one to clear.

Wilkinson will play proper deal with for the Falcons with Kaleb McGary and Storm Norton injured. The final time Wilkinson performed deal with was in 2021. And over the course of greater than 1,300 snaps at deal with between 2019 to 2021, Wilkinson recorded a 73% move block win price. That mark would have ranked final amongst qualifying tackles in 2024.

Reddick, who recorded double-digit sacks in each season from 2020 to 2023, held out for the primary six weeks of 2024 attributable to a contract dispute with the Jets. After returning, he recorded only one sack and a career-low 12% move rush win price over 10 video games. If Reddick finds a method again to his outdated kind, he should not have any drawback beating Wilkinson and being an actual menace to Michael Penix Jr. But when he cannot produce, this recreation could possibly be a tough signal for the remainder of the Reddick's season.

Might Dolphins WR Malik Washington's kick returns make a distinction towards the Colts?

The touchback price numbers could possibly be actually fascinating this weekend. After drastic adjustments to the kickoff guidelines in 2024, NFL homeowners agreed to maneuver the touchback from the 30-yard line as much as the 35. I am questioning if touchbacks will drop precipitously from final season's 64.3% price, putting extra of an significance on kick returns and protection. That might have an impact throughout the board, however one matchup that appears significantly intriguing is Washington towards Indianapolis' protection unit.

Final season, Washington was a robust returner with 121 kick return yards over expectation (fifth-most within the league), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. In the meantime, the Colts allowed 8.3 kick return yards over expectation per return (second most), together with one landing.

Indianapolis had solely 13 kick returns from their opponents final season (tied for second fewest), so we'll see if Washington will get an opportunity to take one out with the brand new guidelines.

Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers you must decide up — and might begin this week

Ollie Gordon II, RB, Miami Dolphins (40.1% rostered)

The sixth-round rookie is De'Von Achane's backup whereas Jaylen Wright recovers from a lower-leg damage that would hold him out of the primary month of the season. Achane is predicted to play as he recovers from his personal damage (calf), however do not be shocked if Gordon has near 10 touches in short-yardage and goal-line conditions. The Colts allowed 18 dashing touchdowns final season, tied for seventh most within the league. Gordon rushed for 34 touchdowns over his closing two seasons at Oklahoma State, successful the 2023 Doak Walker Award as school soccer's high operating again.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos (39.9% rostered)

Regardless of Denver signing tight finish Evan Engram this offseason, Mims has earned a bigger goal share after exhibiting main upside within the latter half of 2024. Over the ultimate eight video games, Mims caught 32 of 37 targets from Bo Nix for 447 yards and 6 touchdowns. His capacity to threaten defenses within the vertical passing recreation makes him a wonderful sleeper, even towards the Titans' robust secondary.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (37.5% rostered)

Lawrence is in an awesome spot towards a Panthers protection that allowed probably the most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks final season. Carolina's protection additionally did not do a lot to enhance this offseason, and Lawrence now has Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter as his high targets. It additionally helps that Jaguars coach Liam Coen was the architect behind Baker Mayfield's 2024 breakout, the place he averaged 21.5 fantasy factors per recreation and completed because the QB4.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens (32.5% rostered)

Bateman performed a career-high 17 video games in 2024, setting new marks in each receiving yards (765) and touchdowns (9). Whereas QB Lamar Jackson will proceed to run the passing recreation by Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, Bateman is projected for the third-most targets. (DeAndre Hopkins, who confirmed indicators of decline with the Chiefs final season, is his greatest competitors because the tertiary choice.) In a matchup towards the Payments with one of many highest level totals, Bateman has a robust likelihood to shine.

Brenton Unusual, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (20.2% rostered)

Unusual is the Jaguars' beginning tight finish following Engram's departure. Lawrence has traditionally focused his tight ends rather a lot, and within the eight video games Engram was injured final season, Unusual recorded 29 catches for 275 yards and two touchdowns. The Panthers' protection allowed a league-high 11 touchdowns to tight ends in 2024.

Solak: Do not be shocked if …

The very best-scoring recreation is Raiders-Patriots. Week 1 is at all times good for a shocking barn burner or two, and I will be glued to this matchup Sunday. The Raiders' offense is a selected fascination. Will Chip Kelly go hurry-up? How aggressive will Geno Smith be throwing downfield? Can Ashton Jeanty instantly be a top-10 operating again?

And on the opposite aspect of the sphere, Drake Maye has a brand new offensive coordinator, two new tackles and a brand new WR1 in Stefon Diggs. Patriots star nook Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) is probably going out for this one, too. I am searching for fireworks.

The Bengals lastly look good. The opening week has not been variety to Cincinnati in current seasons. Final 12 months, they misplaced to the Patriots in a 16-10 snoozefest. In 2023, they suffered a 24-3 embarrassment towards the Browns.

However this season, the Bengals completely overhauled their coaching camp course of. Quarterback Joe Burrow performed 5 drives within the preseason, and neither Ja'Marr Chase nor Tee Higgins held out this offseason. The Bengals' offense is able to come out of the gate quick, and it is an outdated buddy — that Browns protection — ready on the opposite aspect.

Actually anything occurs. Week 1 is a wild time, and we're primed to overreact as a result of we have not watched reside regular-season NFL soccer in 207 days (however who's counting?). Just a few reminders from final 12 months's Week 1: The Saints scored 47 factors. J.Ok. Dobbins rushed for 135 yards, whereas Derrick Henry rushed for 46. The way forward for the passing recreation was declared lifeless within the water. In fact, some issues are actual — bear in mind how tough Kirk Cousins regarded attempting to maneuver within the pocket towards the Steelers? Simply put together your self for chaos.

Bowen: Key matchup to observe

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams vs. Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores

Flores' defensive system creates confusion for opposing quarterbacks attributable to strain and late protection rotation. Final season, the Vikings led the NFL with a blitz price of 38.4%, and we must always anticipate Flores to warmth up the pocket in Chicago on Monday night time. Sure, new Bears coach Ben Johnson has expertise towards Flores and can scheme up solutions to strain. Nevertheless it's nonetheless on Williams, who had a QBR of solely 56.4 versus the blitz as a rookie, to determine the post-snap image and throw with timing when Flores accelerates his inside clock.

Maldonado: My favourite wager for Week 1

Detroit Lions +1.5 at Inexperienced Bay Packers

Detroit is constructed to journey with a seasoned quarterback, one of the crucial efficient dashing offenses and a training employees that stays aggressive in key spots. Does the addition of edge rusher Micah Parsons to Inexperienced Bay actually make them a 1.5-point favourite over Detroit? He actually boosts the Packers' move rush, however the Lions' offensive line remains to be elite.

Quarterback Jordan Love does not get extensive receiver Christian Watson again but from his ACL damage, and the Packers' vertical recreation could possibly be restricted outdoors of Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Detroit's revamped secondary matches up properly. The seasonlong upside is there with the Pack — however not towards this Lions staff out of the gate. Seize the factors with the higher roster.