New AFC prime contenders: Colts, Broncos, Patriots, Chargers

Should you do not just like the staff on the prime of the heap within the AFC, simply wait every week. Heading into the 2025 NFL season, there was a consensus that the groups with MVP-caliber quarterbacks which are perennially atop the convention — the Payments, Chiefs and Ravens — would shortly reestablish their rightful place atop the AFC, a tier above the opposite 13 groups.

In actuality, we have had whole chaos. The Chiefs began 0-2 and really sit outdoors the playoff image on the halfway level because the eighth seed within the AFC. The Ravens opened the season 1-5 earlier than turning issues round after their bye. The Payments have crushed each of their frequent playoff rivals, however they've additionally misplaced to the Falcons and now to the Dolphins, who blew them out on Sunday.

That three-team prime tier has given technique to a bigger, messier group of claimants to the highest spot within the AFC. None of them has a foolproof résumé. Some groups that had already seemingly introduced themselves as candidates have already fallen out of favor — just like the Jaguars, who in Week 5 went to 4-1 with their win over the Chiefs on “Monday Night time Soccer” earlier than shedding three of their subsequent 4, together with a heartbreaking loss to the Texans on Sunday afternoon. Houston scored 28 unanswered factors within the fourth quarter to drag out a 36-29 victory.

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Which staff ought to we put religion in on the prime of the AFC? Can we default to the Chiefs or Payments due to what we have seen previously? Or ought to we be forward of the curve and get behind a staff just like the Broncos, Chargers, Colts or Patriots — the 4 groups which have higher information within the AFC than the outdated guard?

I am right here to make a case for that new group of contenders, the groups attempting to persuade us that it will not inevitably be the Payments, Chiefs or Ravens competing within the AFC Championship Recreation. Are they on that degree? I am unsure there is a proper reply, however I will attempt to make the absolute best argument for every, and we'll contact on what occurred to them in Week 10. Let's begin on the very prime of the standings and work our means down.

Bounce to:
Broncos | Chargers | Colts | Patriots

Week 10: Beat the Falcons 31-25 (in time beyond regulation)

This is the proper instance of how tough it is changing into to guage the highest of the AFC. Did Sunday's efficiency make you roughly assured within the Colts? A win is a win, and the Colts overcame the absence of injured defensive sort out DeForest Buckner (neck) to take down the Falcons in Berlin, prevailing in time beyond regulation on Jonathan Taylor's third landing of the sport.

You possibly can spin that victory as a constructive. Taylor was unbelievable, as we'll get to in a second. The Colts confirmed a sure capability to battle adversity and persevere that they have not wanted to indicate fairly often in 2025. After the Falcons took a 25-22 lead with 1:48 to go, Daniel Jones overcame a third-and-21 over two performs and obtained the Colts in vary for a game-tying 44-yard area purpose. The protection then stiffened in time beyond regulation, and in lieu of settling for a area purpose, coach Shane Steichen's offense drove 57 yards for a game-winning landing.

And but, on the similar time, it looks like the brand new issues we discovered aren't positives. Indy gave up 25 factors to a Falcons offense that did not decide up a single third down all sport. The Colts survived by recovering 4 of the sport's 5 fumbles, together with three of their 4 misplaced footballs on offense. Even with new cornerback Sauce Gardner within the combine, the Colts weren't capable of shut out the sport with a cease of Michael Penix Jr. within the fourth quarter, because the Falcons drove 71 yards with out ever needing to even face a 3rd down earlier than Tyler Allgeier plunged in from 1 yard out to provide Atlanta a lead.

What was most worrisome, although, was one other high-variance sport from Jones. One week after he turned the ball over 5 instances and took 5 sacks in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers, the veteran threw an interception, fumbled thrice (shedding one) and was sacked seven instances on simply 33 dropbacks towards the Falcons. Jones made a lot of massive performs, together with a 19-yard scramble to assist lengthen the sport on the ultimate drive of regulation, however there have been extra lows than the Colts have been coping with throughout Jones' unbelievable begin to the marketing campaign.

Throughout his first eight begins in a Colts uniform, Jones did an impeccable job of avoiding destructive performs. He threw simply three interceptions, fumbled twice and took a mere 9 sacks, which yielded the league's greatest sack price on the time. Over his previous two video games? Jones has 4 picks and eight fumbles. He has been sacked 12 instances, greater than doubling his whole from the prior two months of the season.

Is a few of that variance? After all. Jones obtained away with a dropped interception or two in the course of the first half of the season. One in every of his interceptions towards the Steelers was a throw to the flat that was deflected by one Pittsburgh linebacker to a different like they have been establishing a volleyball spike. If you're working scorching, these balls hit the bottom, and while you're not, they by some means land within the improper palms.

The sacks, although, are an actual concern. The true outlier for Jones versus the participant he was in New York was that sack price. Whilst Giants coach Brian Daboll aggressively inspired Jones to get the ball out shortly and his offenses ran a few of the shortest common air yard charges of any staff within the league, Jones took sacks on 8.5% of his dropbacks in New York. These takedowns led to tough down-and-distances and points with fumbles and strip sacks.

Steichen had managed to each create alternatives for Jones to throw the soccer downfield and keep away from the sacks that might usually include these pictures. That calculus has shifted over the previous two weeks. It is one factor when the gamers in entrance of Jones wrestle. Left sort out Bernhard Raimann allowed 5 fast pressures towards the Steelers. Taylor whiffed on a cross block towards the Falcons for one sack, whereas one other seemed prefer it got here on a damaged play, with no one bothering to dam a defender flying up the A-gap. There's not a lot Jones can do about that.

Sack price is a quarterback stat that usually transfers from staff to staff, although, and Jones merely wasn't cautious with the soccer towards Atlanta. Every of his three strip sacks got here on performs through which Jones wanted to guard the soccer and didn't. He did not really feel stress in or across the pocket on two of the sacks and had the ball popped out when he was working towards the sideline on the third. These are on the QB, not the offensive line or his cross safety. And even when they find yourself as sacks, Jones cannot allow them to turn into strip sacks, as a result of there aren't any ensures that the Colts will be capable of fall on the soccer 80% of the time sooner or later.

This offense has been ruthless all season, however the Colts actually weren't that on Sunday. One Jones fumble simply outdoors the purple zone price the Colts a shot at three factors. Michael Badgley missed a area purpose and an additional level. Indy failed on a fourth down on the 5-yard line when Taylor was stuffed for a 2-yard loss and on a 2-point try when Jones was late to throw the wheel on mesh and gave the Falcons' protection time to bat the cross away.

The very best argument: That is one of the best offense in soccer in the course of a doubtlessly historic run by its greatest participant.

The Colts have been bailed out by Taylor, who responded to his worst sport of the season in Week 9 by virtually singlehandedly carrying the Colts over the road Sunday. Steichen mainly turned the sport over to Taylor halfway via the third quarter, and the working again completed the day with 32 carries for 244 yards and three scores. The very best of the day was his 83-yard landing, with Taylor getting bottled up across the line of scrimmage, by some means sneaking out of the pile and outrunning cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. to the sideline and up the sector. Steichen and the offensive line have finished a terrific job of setting Taylor up for giant runs this season, however this one was all No. 28.

Taylor's dominant run actually began within the remaining quarter of the 2024 season earlier than extending into 2025. Over that 14-game stretch, he has 306 carries for 1,766 dashing yards and 21 dashing touchdowns. No one is inside 500 dashing yards or six dashing touchdowns of the Colts star over that span.

Professional-rate that efficiency out over a full 17-game season and Taylor racks up 2,144 dashing yards, which might be the single-season dashing document. The 26-year-old would get to 26 dashing touchdowns and three receiving scores, which might be 29 scrimmage touchdowns, second in NFL historical past behind LaDainian Tomlinson's 31 scores in 2006. Taylor would have a respectable shot within the MVP balloting if he broke one vaunted document and got here near a second, particularly if Jones continues to wrestle. That would go away the credit score for a wildly profitable season to the Colts halfback.

Should you're arguing that the Colts actually are one of the best staff within the convention, after all, that is the place the story begins and ends. Indy's 3.2 factors per possession stay the fourth greatest for any offense since 2000 via 10 weeks, trailing solely the 2018 Saints, 2007 Patriots and 2018 Chiefs. It did not finish effectively within the postseason for any of these groups, however by the point we obtained to January, they have been all rightly acknowledged as offensive juggernauts. The Colts would possibly slip some within the second half, however they have been adequate for lengthy sufficient to be taken significantly as an uncommonly spectacular offense.

Probably the most practical criticism: They're lacking superstars past Taylor.

Jones has struggled badly over the previous two weeks, and whereas I am not writing off what we noticed from him over the primary two months of the season after two disappointing video games, it might even be silly to easily discredit all the things we noticed over six seasons in New York as irrelevant. Jones unquestionably has expertise and has made strides in Indianapolis, however he has seemed out of rhythm over the previous two weeks. The Colts have a really totally different ceiling with the Jones we noticed in September and October than the one who has struggled in November.

Buckner was the focus of the Indy cross rush and has no clear timetable for return after struggling a neck harm, which could make Gardner's presence because the staff's new star on protection extra important. The previous Jets standout performed 100% of the snaps in his Indy debut, permitting three catches for 46 yards as the closest defender in protection, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo responded to Gardner's arrival by enjoying man protection at Indy's third-highest price of the season, and Penix went 5-of-12 for 59 yards towards man-to-man protection. Indy most likely wants at the very least a few superstars past Taylor and guard Quenton Nelson in the event that they need to make a deep playoff run, although.

The significant résumé: 29-28 win over Broncos, 38-24 win over Chargers, 27-20 loss to Rams

In video games towards stiff competitors, the Colts have mainly battled their opponents to a draw. They manhandled the Chargers, misplaced a irritating one to the Rams partly due to Adonai Mitchell's brutal fumble on his means into the tip zone and had a sport towards the Broncos come right down to the ultimate snaps, the place a leverage name towards Denver turned a area purpose miss from 60 yards out right into a 45-yard kick to win the sport for Indy.

Week 10: Beat the Raiders 10-7

Should you do not bear in mind a lot from Thursday's tilt within the AFC West, it may be your mind's means of attempting to get better some much-needed area earlier than the vacation season begins. Just like the Colts, a win is a win, as Denver took its successful streak to seven video games with a victory over its longtime rivals at dwelling. However just like the Colts, I am unsure the sport informed us something we did not already know in a great way.

The Broncos' protection fully and totally stifled Geno Smith, who appeared to take the snap on third downs realizing {that a} pleasant member of the Denver cross rush could be assembly him on the backside of his dropback. Vance Joseph's protection sacked Smith six instances on 32 dropbacks. When the Broncos pressured Smith, he went 3-of-7 for 8 yards with an interception. And whereas the Raiders can run their means into their very own errors at instances, the Broncos created 13 fast pressures of the quarterback on Thursday night time, together with six by Defensive Participant of the 12 months candidate Nik Bonitto. These fast pressures are deadly until the opponent has a plan to get the ball out quick, and the Raiders have not actually exhibited many plans in any respect this season.

What has been informative, maybe, is discovering out that this protection can survive and even proceed to thrive with out star cornerback Pat Surtain II, who has missed the previous two video games with a pectoral harm. Joseph performs one of many league's most aggressive and man-heavy schemes, partly as a result of he has one of many few cornerbacks able to overlaying any receiver one-on-one. With out the reigning Defensive Participant of the 12 months within the combine, it was honest to wonder if the Broncos may be restricted on that aspect of the ball.

As a substitute, they've finished simply positive. Nico Collins had 75 yards in Week 9, however it took 11 targets for the star Texans wideout to get there. On Thursday, the apparent focus for the Raiders needed to be second-year tight finish Brock Bowers. And whereas the Broncos do wonderful work on the surface with Surtain on the sector, groups have had success attacking their linebackers in protection with working backs this season, suggesting that Bowers may need been capable of exploit one of many few comfortable spots the Broncos possess.

Effectively, I am unsure the printed even stated Bowers' identify after halftime. Whereas he did decide up a 31-yard completion to transform a third-and-9 within the second quarter, that reception was Bowers' solely catch of the day — one week after going 12-127-3 towards the Jaguars. Bowers was capable of command solely three targets all sport, a testomony to how efficient Joseph's protection was at corralling the budding star and forcing Smith to go elsewhere. And by the point Smith began wanting there, after all, the cross rush was often about to get dwelling.

The protection lived as much as expectations, however it might be powerful to say the identical about Bo Nix, who struggled for the second consecutive begin. Which may have been cheap towards the Texans, who've the league's greatest protection by EPA per play, however the Raiders have been twenty second within the league by the identical metric heading into Week 10. We noticed Nix slice up the Cowboys and their moribund protection two weeks in the past, so this could have been a chance to get proper.

As a substitute, the second-year quarterback went 16-of-28 for 150 yards with a landing cross and two interceptions. A kind of picks was off Troy Franklin's physique, however Nix wasn't capable of constantly transfer the soccer. The Broncos failed to choose up even one first down on 9 of their 13 drives towards the Raiders, changing into the primary staff with 9 three-and-outs in a sport this season. The one groups that did it final 12 months have been the Browns, Jets and these very Broncos, who had that occur in Nix's first profession begin, a 26-20 loss to the Seahawks.

The very best argument: That is arguably one of the best protection in soccer, and protection wins championships.

It may be higher after final season's Tremendous Bowl to be extra particular and recommend that cross rushes win championships, particularly if you find yourself going through a staff just like the Chiefs alongside the best way. No one will get dwelling extra usually than the Broncos, whose 11.8% sack price leads the league. Joseph blitzes on the sixth-highest price, however Bonitto & Co. even have a barely higher sack price (12.0%) when Denver rushes 4 or fewer guys, which appears wild.

The get-off pace for Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper makes them nearly inconceivable to dam at their greatest. Amongst edge rushers with 100 pass-rush snaps or extra this season, Cooper (0.73 seconds) and Bonitto (0.75 seconds) rank first and third in get-off pace, respectively, sandwiching Myles Garrett and sitting simply forward of Aidan Hutchinson. Mix that with Bonitto's bend and the sheer pressure of Zach Allen within the center, and the Broncos have a handful of snaps per sport the place they're fully unblockable. And when the Broncos get at the very least one sack, the drive often ends; they've allowed simply three touchdowns throughout 39 defensive possessions with at the very least one sack.

Surtain ought to be again quickly, which might restore the Broncos to primarily a full roster on protection. The one different defensive starter who has missed vital time is linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who performed a majority of the defensive snaps for the primary time since 2023 towards the Raiders. Merely having all of your guys round into the second half of the season (and ideally into the postseason) is a big benefit, particularly when the opposition has injury-impacted weak spots to assault. Dropping Greenlaw and Jon Feliciano and going with out injured security Talanoa Hufanga within the Tremendous Bowl may need been the distinction in San Francisco's second loss to Kansas Metropolis on the largest stage.

Past guys corresponding to Surtain, Hufanga, Allen and Bonitto, although — all of whom are enjoying at All-Professional ranges this 12 months — the Broncos are getting manufacturing from their secondary items. Malcolm Roach, Dondrea Tillman and Justin Strnad have made significant contributions this season. First-round decide Jahdae Barron noticed his position increase towards the Texans after the harm to Surtain. Different groups have comparable high-end firepower, however I am unsure anyone has the identical caliber of expertise all through the lineup that the Broncos protection does.

Probably the most practical criticism: The Broncos cannot know what they will get on any given day — and even on any given cross — from Nix.

No quarterback conjures up extra graphics with tortured begin/cease factors. Have you ever ever puzzled which quarterbacks have nice touchdown-to-interception ratios over a 10-game span as a rookie? There have been graphics in every single place highlighting Nix's efficiency over his prior 5 quarters after the win over the Cowboys. However these endpoints exist as a result of they're surrounded by wildly disappointing performances.

He was improbable in that remaining quarter towards the Giants and ripped up the Cowboys' protection, however he had been dismal in his prior three quarters towards New York and did not do a lot at everywhere in the ensuing eight quarters towards the Texans and Raiders. There's nothing improper with highlighting a scorching streak by a participant, after all, however the guardrails are extra instructive right here for Nix, as a result of he can run extra white-hot and frigidly chilly than simply about some other quarterback within the league.

It is clear that Sean Payton continues to be doing lots of work in managing the sport for Nix and attempting to reduce the burden being positioned on his second-year starter. This offense has a seemingly infinite array of screens, swing passes, jet sweeps, bootlegs and RPOs designed to create straightforward completions for Nix and YAC alternatives for his receivers. Payton then makes use of that eye sweet and Nix's arm to create pictures downfield. Exterior of Steichen in Indianapolis, I am unsure anyone is creating extra wide-open appears downfield on a weekly foundation for potential massive performs than Payton.

Nix simply is not hitting them. He is working a minus-19.8% completion proportion over anticipated (CPOE) on passes touring 30 or extra yards within the air this season, the worst mark in soccer for passers with 10 or extra of these throws this season per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Nix is 3-of-27 on these passes, with one landing throw and three picks. The NFL Subsequent Gen Stats mannequin means that he has left 5 of these lengthy completions on the sector, and I would argue that quantity is low.

As ESPN's Mina Kimes mentioned, Nix's off-target price on throws touring 10 or extra yards downfield is 39%, which is thirty second within the league. He is additionally thirty second on these throws from a clear pocket and once more on first downs, the place his off-target price is a whopping 45%. That final determine is the third worst for any QB in a single season over the previous decade.

The issue is not that Nix cannot throw precisely or hit deep throws. His arm is not a difficulty in any respect. Watch a few of Nix's greatest throws, like that 93-yard seam shot versus Cleveland's Tampa 2 protection from final season, and you may see the kind of zip and accuracy anybody would need from a younger QB. When Nix is ready and will get his physique right into a throw, he appears nice.

The difficulties lie with Nix's propensity for shifting across the pocket and what that subsequently does for his footwork. Payton indulges Nix's habits of scrambling round, extending performs and attempting to create off-platform and/or out of construction, which might generally create enormous scrambles and large performs when the ball goes the place Nix needs. When Nix is stopping and beginning as he ambles round, attempting to make a throw on a scramble drill, or tossing passes with one foot within the air, there is not any telling the place the ball goes to go, although. These passes result in off-target throws and difficult-to-catch passes that lead to incompletions and interceptions.

The hope was naturally that Nix would have issues decelerate a bit — that he'd be extra constant and intentional along with his footwork and motion in 12 months 2. However I am unsure he appears any totally different than he did in 12 months 1. When Nix is in rhythm and enjoying confidently, that may result in sensible stretches of play. And when he is not, as was the case towards the Raiders, it could actually result in video games the place even Broncos followers ponder whether they've the suitable man.

As ESPN's Seth Wickersham wrote in “American Kings,” the one delicate massive constructive for Nix is avoiding destructive performs. Nix has thrown eight picks this season, which is a slight uptick by way of interception price from the place he was a 12 months in the past, however he is taking sacks on a league-low 2.8% of his dropbacks. The very best model of Nix is scrambling for straightforward first downs and hitting massive pictures downfield, but when he can reduce down on the interceptions and finish his drives with kicks, the Broncos' protection ought to be capable of do sufficient to win video games most weeks.

The significant résumé: 29-28 loss to Colts, 23-20 loss to Chargers, 21-17 win over Eagles.

Just like the Colts, the Broncos have received one in all their video games towards stiff competitors in slim vogue and misplaced one other in a heartbreaker. Nix missed an enormous throw which may have arrange the game-winning area purpose towards the Chargers, who then drove downfield for their very own game-winning kick.

It is a little bit simpler than Broncos followers would possibly care to confess to poke holes in Denver's résumé throughout this successful streak. They began issues off by beating Jake Browning and the Bengals. A comeback win over Jalen Hurts and the Eagles was spectacular, however the Broncos trailed for a piece of the day towards Justin Fields and wanted late comebacks to beat the lowly Jets and Giants. They scored 44 factors on a hapless Cowboys protection, then narrowly beat the Texans, even after C.J. Stroud was knocked out of the sport with a concussion. You simply noticed them wrestle to place away the Raiders, who missed a 48-yard area purpose that might have tied the sport with 4:30 left.

That every one modifications Sunday, when the Broncos get one other dwelling sport towards the Chiefs. The protection slowed down Patrick Mahomes final season and a late drive had the Broncos in place to kick a game-winning area purpose, just for the Chiefs to drag out a surprising victory by blocking the kick. The Broncos received the rematch in a blowout, however that was with Carson Wentz and Kansas Metropolis's backups on the sector. Get a win over Mahomes and the Chiefs, and it each creates extra separation for the Broncos atop the AFC West and legitimizes their case as an actual contender.

Week 10: Beat the Buccaneers 28-23

The Patriots bandwagon retains taking over extra clients. After Sunday's victory in Tampa Bay, Mike Vrabel's Pats have received seven straight, establishing a two-game lead within the AFC East over the Payments with the tiebreaker favoring New England. The rematch between these two groups, which comes after the Pats' Week 14 bye, takes place in Foxborough. Between from time to time, the Patriots face the Jets, Bengals and Giants — three groups which have a mixed document of 7-21 this season. It will hardly be a shock if the Patriots hit that Buffalo rematch with a 10-game successful streak and an AFC playoff berth in hand.

Sunday was an opportunity to show themselves to some nonbelievers. The Bucs aren't a terrific staff, however they've crushed the Seahawks and 49ers, and Baker Mayfield has been capable of coax the staff to victories when issues have been shut. Going to Tampa Bay in wet circumstances was going to be a take a look at of whether or not the Patriots may take their act on the highway towards stiffer competitors.

The outcomes have been combined. The positives got here with massive performs at precisely the suitable time. Greater than half of Maye's 270 passing yards got here on three performs: a 72-yard landing cross to Kyle Williams, a 54-yard completion to Mack Hollins and a 26-yard throw to DeMario Douglas. Maye additionally hit Stefon Diggs for a landing on fourth-and-goal simply earlier than halftime when on first down it seemed like Maye had deliberately tried not to score to run clock and maintain the Bucs from getting the ball again. (Vrabel denied it after the game, but when the Pats have been attempting to attain, I am guessing the coach wasn't impressed with Maye's efforts on the sneak.)

TreVeyon Henderson added a pair of big performs in his breakout sport. The rookie working again took a carry 55 yards to the home within the third quarter, then added a 69-yard pitch to seal issues up within the fourth quarter, seemingly asking the bench whether or not it wished him to go right down to run clock over the ultimate few yards earlier than sheepishly crossing the purpose line. In all, the Pats had 4 50-plus-yard gainers on Sunday, probably the most any staff has had in a single sport because the Dolphins went for 70 factors towards the Broncos in 2023.

Huge performs are nice, however there is a purpose these Dolphins scored 70 and the Pats managed solely 28. What occurred between the massive performs wasn't very spectacular. The Patriots had a 33.9% success price on offense towards the Bucs, which was comfortably their worst mark of the season. Whereas Maye has been wonderful hitting pictures downfield all through the season, no offense can depend on spiking 4 50-plus-yard beneficial properties every week. The Pats will have to be extra constant on offense once they do play more durable competitors.

Their prior success price low was 41.2%, which got here within the Week 3 loss to the Steelers, a day the place the Pats made massive performs however turned the ball over 5 instances, together with twice close to the purpose line. Maye took an enormous hit in that sport after which shortly thereafter threw an ill-advised decide in the long run zone. He did the identical factor towards Tampa Bay. The explosive performs gave the Patriots some margin for error. Maye additionally struggled early along with his accuracy when the sport was being performed in heavy rain, one thing to observe for when the Patriots inevitably play in uncomfortable circumstances in December and January.

It additionally wasn't a banner day for the protection, however as we have seen in different key spots this season, the cross rush got here up with an enormous play when the Pats wanted to seal issues up. After Maye's interception, the Bucs drove downfield and confronted a fourth-and-3 within the purple zone with 1:55 to go. The free agent additions made the distinction for New England, because the Pats ran a twist with edge rusher Ok'Lavon Chaisson and defensive sort out Milton Williams, each of whom obtained via the road. Whereas the 2 defenders weren't capable of sack Mayfield, they pressured him right into a determined throw to Rachaad White, shedding 3 yards. The 2 groups traded touchdowns within the remaining two minutes, however after Diggs recovered an onside kick, the Pats have been 8-2.

The very best argument: They could have the NFL's greatest quarterback.

I laid out Maye's MVP case in my awards column final week, and whereas he fell simply quick for me, I would not have any concern with voters choosing Maye given his résumé. The second-year quarterback has been wonderful as a downfield thrower and scrambler. He leads the NFL in QBR on deep passes (99.9) and towards the blitz (94.1).

Maye is working at a unique degree than different quarterbacks within the 2024 draft class, each by way of what the Patriots ask him to do and his effectiveness in executing the complete operation of an upper-echelon NFL offense. He is a a lot better and much more constant dropback passer than Nix, Penix or Caleb Williams, and whereas Jayden Daniels was higher as a rookie, Maye was outplaying the Commanders star in 2025 earlier than Daniels suffered his elbow harm. And J.J. McCarthy continues to be primarily a thriller field. If the league redrafted 2024 yet again, it is tough to think about Maye not being the participant most groups would need to take with the primary general decide.

The offense may get even higher because the season goes alongside. It has been sloppy with fumbles and inconsistent cross blocking, particularly at working again. Henderson continues to be attempting to ascertain himself as a dependable blocker, however his explosiveness was a much-needed burst for a staff that hasn't reliably had that kind of runner within the backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson goes to determine into the combo when he returns from his toe harm, and I might have appreciated to see the Patriots land a viable third again earlier than the commerce deadline with Antonio Gibson finished for the 12 months. However Henderson ought to enhance the dashing effectivity of this group as his position expands within the second half.

Fellow rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson must also enhance as they develop extra snug with the pace of the sport up entrance, and Kyle Williams made his presence felt after catching simply two passes within the first half of the marketing campaign, however I am intrigued to see if a veteran receiver could make a much bigger leap. Maye has been solely snug biking via totally different receivers as his major possibility on a weekly foundation. On Sunday, that was Hollins, who led the staff in targets (10), receptions (six) and receiving yards (106).

Might Diggs emerge as a extra constant No. 1 within the weeks to come back? The Pats have been cautious about monitoring his workload as he will get again to one hundred pc off final season's torn ACL, along with his snap whole falling between 27 and 41 performs per sport. Diggs is averaging simply over 21 routes per sport, which is not a lot in comparison with the league's prime wideouts. Drake London, for instance, is averaging greater than 33 routes per sport for the Falcons, whereas Ja'Marr Chase is on the sector for practically 38 routes per sport in Cincinnati.

Diggs is fourth within the NFL amongst common broad receivers in yards per route run (2.6), although, nearly tied with CeeDee Lamb and forward of gamers corresponding to London, Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown. He is additionally second in ESPN's receiver score metric, trailing solely Puka Nacua. On a route-by-route foundation, Diggs has been an elite receiver for the Patriots this season.

After all, we will not simply assume Diggs can be equally as efficient if the Patriots simply instantly up his snap counts to play on an every-snap foundation. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is definitely recognizing Diggs and ensuring to make use of him in spots the place he is extra more likely to get the soccer. Diggs additionally most likely derives some profit from resting greater than different beginning receivers, permitting him to remain more energizing for the routes he does run.

On the similar time, although, this is not a Marvin Mims Jr. or Deonte Harty case, the place a gadget or restricted receiver racks up a gaudy yards per route run determine in a situational position. Diggs was a top-five receiver by these metrics earlier than becoming a member of the Patriots, usually on an annual foundation. He was fourth within the NFL in receiver rating throughout his lone 12 months with the Texans earlier than he tore his ACL. Diggs is able to being a whole receiver. And if he is wholesome sufficient to play a snap share above 75% or 80% down the stretch, do not be shocked if his manufacturing rises accordingly.

Probably the most practical criticism: They've crushed up on dangerous groups.

With the Panthers shedding to the Saints on Sunday, the Patriots have two victories over competitors with successful information this season, having crushed the Payments and Bucs on the highway. I discussed how the Buccaneers sport got here with some unsustainable explosiveness on offense, and a Patriots staff that has pressured eight turnovers throughout their different 9 video games managed to coax three away from the Payments, who've been traditionally good at avoiding giveaways. It is powerful to see that taking place once more in a rematch.

It is not simply that the Patriots have prevented successful groups, I suppose, as a lot as they've actually gotten to play the true backside of the NFL. They've wins over three of ESPN Soccer Energy Index's four-lowest ranked groups within the Browns, Titans and Saints. They nonetheless have two video games to come back towards the Jets, who rank thirtieth, and the Pats have three extra wins over the Dolphins, Falcons and Panthers, who rank twenty third, twenty fourth and twenty seventh, respectively. Oh, and one in all their two losses is to the Raiders, who're the league's fifth-worst staff.

The one drawback in evaluating the Pats is that the schedule would not get a lot more durable. They get three extra video games towards subpar competitors earlier than the bye, and whereas the Payments and Ravens present up after that, New England finally ends up with the Jets and Dolphins. It will find yourself being one of many best schedules in latest reminiscence, and whereas the Pats can solely beat the groups on the slate, it is powerful to gauge whether or not they could be a winner towards more durable competitors frequently.

The significant résumé: 23-20 win over Payments, 28-23 win over Buccaneers.

If you wish to throw in a 42-13 win over the Panthers or a 21-14 loss to the Steelers, be my visitor, however the Pats have not been examined fairly often this season. I am assured they're good, however are they as nice as their document suggests?

Week 10: Beat the Steelers 25-10

Sure, the Sunday night time sport was the bowl to determine who appeared because the fourth staff on this column. The Steelers did not make it a lot of a contest; after a distressingly giant portion of the sport when the rating was both 3-2 or 5-3, the Chargers managed to drag away. They scored 25 consecutive factors earlier than permitting a late landing cross from Aaron Rodgers to Roman Wilson with 2:57 to go. By then, even the Steelers followers who had unsurprisingly taken over the stadium in Los Angeles had left to beat the site visitors.

This seemed like a nasty matchup for the Chargers on the offensive aspect of the ball. The Steelers have been what I might charitably describe as inconsistent on protection this season, however the energy of their staff is on the sting. T.J. Watt is a future Corridor of Famer, Alex Highsmith is one week faraway from totally annihilating the Colts, and backup Nick Herbig nonetheless leads all edge defenders in cross rush win price by a substantial margin. With the Chargers down Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for the season and beginning the duo of Austin Deculus and Trey Pipkins III at sort out, this appeared to be a legitimately harmful night within the making for Justin Herbert.

As a substitute, we noticed offensive coordinator Greg Roman and the Chargers' employees piece collectively a logical, profitable sport plan for Herbert: Get the ball out instantly. Herbert can sometimes lean into holding the ball too lengthy with painful outcomes, so this is not his nature. However with the Steelers holding such a bonus on the sting, the Chargers had no alternative however to get it out fast.

With a shorthanded offensive line, Justin Herbert averaged a 2.21-second time to throw in Week 10 – the quickest of his profession – and confronted only a 30.0% stress price.

Herbert accomplished 15 of 21 fast cross makes an attempt for 145 yards and his solely landing.

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Deculus and Pipkins mixed to permit three sacks however just one fast quarterback stress, which is what sank Daniel Jones towards this protection final week. These sacks got here because of preliminary inside stress or after Herbert had a while to eliminate the soccer. No Steelers participant had a couple of fast stress all sport. And when Pittsburgh did not get stress, Herbert went 17-of-26 for 203 yards with a landing cross.

It wasn't his greatest efficiency of the season, however the Chargers have been capable of mitigate the energy of the Steelers (their cross rush) and assault their weakest hyperlink (the secondary). It did not assist when Pittsburgh misplaced Darius Slay to a concussion, which created extra confusion. The Steelers' beginning safeties have been Jalen Ramsey, who moved to the place on a full-time foundation final month, and Kyle Dugger, who was acquired through commerce from the Patriots two weeks in the past.

The Steelers may give groups bother by leaning into their bigger personnel groupings, getting two (and as many as 4) tight ends on the sector at one time, and utilizing these checks to restrict what the protection can do with their personnel or schematic decisions. I used to be a little bit frightened from the Los Angeles perspective that Pittsburgh would possibly be capable of overpower the Chargers' entrance seven.

As a substitute, the Chargers merely did what they might to remove Rodgers' preliminary learn and trusted that their cross rush would get dwelling to both hassle or sack the long run Corridor of Famer earlier than he discovered some other place to go along with the soccer. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter despatched just one blitz all night time, preferring to drop seven into protection and blanket DK Metcalf, who turned seven targets into simply 35 yards.

Rodgers by no means actually appeared snug. He was 0-for-5 underneath stress, and when he held the ball for greater than 2.5 seconds, he was 4-of-14 for 55 yards. Rodgers had only one completion which traveled greater than 10 yards within the air all sport on eight tries. He completed simply 16-of-31 for 161 yards with a landing cross and two picks, although one of many interceptions was admittedly an almost-comical drop by a wide-open Calvin Austin III.

Rodgers' 4.6 Complete QBR was the worst mark posted by any quarterback in Week 10 and the second-worst mark of his illustrious profession, trailing solely his Week 17 efficiency towards the Payments final season (whereas he was with the Jets). The Steelers went three-and-out seven instances and had two extra drives produce one sole first down every earlier than scoring on their remaining possession of the sport whereas down 22 factors.

The very best argument: The Chargers have profitable coaches and a legitimately nice protection.

After their win, the Chargers climbed as much as sixth within the NFL in EPA per play on protection, precisely the place they completed on the finish of the 2024 season. Whereas the offensive accidents stay a critical concern, and the protection has been down a number of starters as just lately as final week towards the Titans, L.A. is starting to get wholesome. The one starter lacking Sunday on that aspect of the ball was wildly underrated cornerback Tarheeb Nonetheless, and that is the deepest place on this roster.

Given Mike Macdonald's success in Seattle and Minter's comparable background, it might be a shock if the Chargers' defensive coordinator makes it via the 2026 hiring cycle with out leaving for a head teaching job some other place. Because it stands, whereas the Chargers haven't got fairly as a lot expertise in any respect three ranges because the Seahawks, they've younger standouts (Tuli Tuipulotu, Daiyan Henley, Nonetheless, Cam Hart) who've exceeded their draft slots and veterans (Teair Tart, Donte Jackson, Elijah Molden and doubtlessly new addition Odafe Oweh) who've performed higher underneath Minter than they'd in prior stops.

After which, atop all that, they've a real famous person at security in Derwin James Jr., who did not miss time after struggling an ankle harm two weeks in the past. The Chargers are seventeenth in EPA per play towards designed runs, so groups can transfer the ball on the bottom at instances towards them. However staying out of destructive sport scripts helps maintain that relative weak point from being exploited. That may be more durable towards groups that may run the ball effectively within the postseason.

The sport plan towards the Steelers was a reminder of what this employees is able to doing. Jim Harbaugh has been a serial winner and made it to the Tremendous Bowl in his second season with the 49ers. Roman was there as his offensive coordinator, and he has finished a wonderful job of increasing the passing sport as wanted for Herbert this season, together with leaning closely into the cross earlier this 12 months. And Minter's probably the most promising younger coaches in soccer. What number of aggressive groups across the league can say that they really feel nice about their coordinators as they hit the second half of 2025?

Probably the most practical criticism: The offensive accidents are an actual drawback.

Alt and Slater are out for the season. So is working again Najee Harris. And Omarion Hampton, the staff's first-round decide, continues to be recovering from an ankle harm and simply made it again to apply. And on Sunday, rookie tight finish Oronde Gadsden II hobbled off within the third quarter with a knee harm and did not return, costing Herbert a playmaker who had racked up 377 receiving yards over his earlier 4 video games.

Dropping one sort out might be damaging for a quarterback. Two, particularly of the caliber the Chargers have with a wholesome Alt and Slater on the sector, may be insurmountable. Herbert hasn't had Slater in any respect this season, however he has had dramatic on/off splits with and with out Alt. With the second-year sort out on the sector, Herbert has posted a 77.0 QBR, which might be the second-best mark within the NFL over the complete 12 months. That has fallen to 52.4 with out Alt within the lineup, which might be good for twentieth. Herbert has averaged 8.6 yards per try with Alt versus 6.4 with out him.

There's time for the Chargers to evolve as they face the truth of not having Alt within the lineup the remainder of the best way, as they did on Sunday, however there is not any denying that lacking arguably their two greatest gamers on the roster outdoors of Herbert locations an actual cap on the effectivity and effectiveness of the passing assault. This staff was wildly explosive over the primary two weeks of the season whereas working the very best cross price over expectation of any offense within the league (NGS). That model of this offense might be on the shelf till 2026, which leaves the Chargers needing to run the ball extra constantly.

With a wholesome Alt, I might have recommended that the Chargers have been adequate to be thought-about on a degree with the Payments, Chiefs and Ravens. With out him or Slater, it is a lot more durable to see that taking place. The offense has excelled by changing slightly below 48% of its third downs this season, the second-best price within the NFL. That is going to be so much more durable to do with two backup tackles, and the Chargers have been 6-for-17 on third down towards Pittsburgh.

The significant résumé: 27-21 win over Chiefs, 23-20 win over Broncos, 38-24 loss to Colts.

Beating the Chiefs has weirdly turn into a much less significant win for the Chargers than it appeared on the time. When the Chargers pulled out that victory in Brazil in Week 1, they have been beating a staff coming off a 15-1 regular-season document when Mahomes was underneath heart and their third consecutive journey to the Tremendous Bowl. Now, with the Chiefs having misplaced to the Payments, Eagles and Jaguars, that win would not really feel fairly as vital — though that has nothing to do with how the Chargers performed that night.

The Chargers are on the Jaguars earlier than their Week 12 bye and host the Raiders after, however issues get more durable from that time ahead. They're going to host the Eagles (and presumably a really giant variety of Philadelphia followers) for “Monday Night time Soccer” in Week 14, then face the Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis the next Sunday. In the event that they do fend off the Chiefs, the Chargers may journey to Denver in Week 18 with an opportunity of both successful the division or holding the Broncos from claiming it for their very own.