The NFL season presents a seemingly limitless quantity of betting alternatives. Midway by way of the season, will we really feel like we all know extra about the place issues are headed? Are there nonetheless lengthy pictures price a sprinkle?
Listed below are bets for every staff as we head into the second half. Some picks have a look at the massive image, reminiscent of Tremendous Bowl futures, playoffs or win totals. Others zoom in on particular gamers, highlighting MVP and different award possibilities.
Matt Bowen, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder supply their picks.
All odds present as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
Bounce to: ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI
CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU
IND | JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA
MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT
SEA | SF | TB | TEN | WAS
Solak: This appears like an excellent sell-high spot for a staff coming off of a nationally televised win. The Cardinals must be higher with Jacoby Brissett beneath heart than they had been with Kyler Murray, however the upcoming stretch of video games is brutal. By FPI's numbers, the Cardinals have had the fifth-easiest schedule to start out the season however now should endure the third-toughest remaining schedule. Whereas Brissett is a pleasant shot within the arm, he was a backup for a purpose. I am unsure how for much longer that new QB increase will final.
Solak: I odor desperation in Atlanta, because the Falcons have misplaced three straight after their emphatic win over the Payments that put them at 3-2. It could be prudent to attend every week and purchase a greater quantity after the upcoming sport towards the Colts, however Indianapolis is gettable, and the Falcons have the kind of speedy cross rush that the Steelers used to present Daniel Jones matches. I might see the Falcons completely imploding down the stretch, or I might see them rallying onerous round Raheem Morris. I am going to take the plus-money choice right here.
Lamar Jackson to win MVP (30-1)
Solak: The three-5 Ravens are -170 to make the playoffs and favored at -140 to win their division. In what worlds might they presumably obtain these playoff goals with out Jackson thrusting himself into the middle of the MVP race. After all, Jackson returned to motion in a Week 9 win and seemed like Lamar Jackson (4 TD passes), and no one will maintain his harm time away towards him if he, say, wins the following six video games in a row. The opponents: Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals, Steelers and Bengals once more. Baltimore must be favored in all six.
Maldonado: Buffalo is sitting at 6-2, and the document appears clear, however the market remains to be pricing the Payments like a 13-win staff. Buffalo received 13 video games final season with a +24 turnover margin, the best within the league since 2000. That sort of luck hardly ever repeats, and we're already seeing normalization. The Payments have 4 interceptions compelled by way of eight video games after ending with 16 final season. That issues. Well being-wise, the attrition has begun on protection with a number of front-seven items lacking time, and the schedule stiffens. From Week 10-18, the Payments have 5 video games with a relaxation drawback, together with video games towards the Dolphins, Bengals, Patriots and Eagles, plus back-to-back street journeys to Houston and Pittsburgh. I'll take beneath 12.5.
Moody: The Panthers are rising as one of many NFC's shock contenders. Their upset of the Packers lifted them to 5-4, their finest midseason mark since 2019. Behind Rico Dowdle's 735 speeding yards and a protection that simply held Inexperienced Bay to 13 factors, Dave Canales' staff is discovering its identification by way of toughness and stability. With Bryce Younger again beneath heart, a 3-1 residence document, and a winnable matchup towards the Saints forward, Carolina all of a sudden appears able to ending its seven-year playoff drought.
Moody: The Bears appear like legit NFC playoff contenders following their dramatic Week 9 win over the Bengals, which moved them to 5-3 and put them simply behind the Lions (tiebreaker edge) for the ultimate NFC playoff spot. Chicago's offense has come alive beneath first-year head coach Ben Johnson. The Bears now face pivotal matchups towards the Eagles, Packers, 49ers and Lions, all present playoff groups, and wins in these video games wouldn't solely increase their document, however immediately reshape the NFC playoff race of their favor.
Solak: The Bengals grew to become the primary staff for the reason that Nineteen Sixties to lose consecutive video games through which they scored 38 or extra factors. Smells like an amazing buy-low alternative to me. The Bengals ought to have the ability to play most video games right into a coin flip, given how explosive their passing sport is once they path. They seem to have a harder upcoming schedule than they actually do — they face the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Payments and Ravens once more over the following 5 video games, however they finish the 12 months towards the Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals. At plus cash, I like their capacity to search out 4 wins with a staff that is clearly nonetheless clinging to some sense of AFC rivalry.
Carson Schwesinger to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (25-1)
Solak: Schwesinger was +500 to win this award earlier than the Week 8 sport towards the Patriots through which he snagged a decide (good) and likewise left the sport with an ankle harm (not as good). However the outlook appears pretty rosy — head coach Kevin Stefanski mentioned he would not anticipate Schwesinger to go on injured reserve. The sphere for Defensive Rookie of the 12 months in any other case is extraordinarily weak, so if Schwesinger solely misses two video games and retains producing when he returns, his odds will shoot proper again up.
1:50
Stephen A. declares the Cowboys' season over
Stephen A. Smith explains his disappointment for the Cowboys after their loss to the Cardinals.
Dak Prescott to win Comeback Player of the Year (+115)
Karabell: Prescott is the slight favourite right here in a crowded area with no clear chief. That area contains Christian McCaffrey, Aidan Hutchinson and Daniel Jones, however folks will take discover if Prescott leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns, which is a risk. The Cowboys may not make the playoffs, however few will have the ability to blame the QB.
Nik Bonitto to win Defensive Player of the Year (+850)
Bowen: I might take a guess right here on Bonitto. An electrical mover off the road with the pliability to sink and slither round offensive tackles, Bonitto ranks fourth within the league with eight sacks, and he has a top-10 pass-rush win charge. With a powerful second half and extra splash performs, Bonitto can declare the sack title — on a postseason staff. That will get you within the combine for DPOY.
Take a look at the newest odds and features for Week 10 on ESPN BET.
Bowen: Detroit sits at 5-3, in second place within the division behind the 5-2-1 Packers. However I nonetheless see the Lions as the perfect staff within the division. They're averaging 28.8 factors per sport (third most within the league). It is an explosive and balanced offense, whereas the protection options influence gamers at a number of ranges. Rush the passer. Take the ball away. And I am all-in on the aggressive teaching of Dan Campbell. This appears like a wise guess — with plus cash.
Maldonado: Inexperienced Bay's offensive effectivity, defensive depth and quarterback stability assist a projection of 11-6 or higher. Jordan Love ranks prime 10 in QBR and yards per try, whereas the Packers are prime 5 in third-down success and sack differential. The protection's stress pairing of Rashan Gary and Micah Parsons has elevated a unit permitting simply 20.8 factors per sport, with constructive yardage and possession splits reinforcing sustainability. The remaining schedule options 5 favorable matchups, and the Packers' balanced assault limits volatility. Even with delicate regression in one-score video games, Inexperienced Bay's profile initiatives above market expectation. True truthful value is nearer to -145, so -120 is snagging some worth.
Maldonado: Houston is 3-5, so the document would not bounce off the web page, however the Texans profile as a staff able to surge. They opened with one of many hardest schedules within the AFC and nonetheless sit with a constructive level differential (+47). The protection permits the fewest factors per sport (15.1), the fewest yards per sport (267.4), and is fourth in interceptions and whole takeaways by way of 9 weeks. C.J. Stroud remains to be producing regardless of taking part in behind a line that has not been wholesome. The schedule softens, and Houston nonetheless has 4 division video games forward. Needing a 5-4 end, I like over 7.5.
Karabell: Week 9 was a disappointment, however in any other case MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor, potential Comeback Participant of the 12 months Daniel Jones and a stable protection stay prime contenders within the AFC. They are not the Chiefs or Payments, however they're fairly good, and the protection added glorious CB Sauce Gardner on the commerce deadline. Why the Colts? Hey, that is all legit! Why not the Colts?
Karabell: It appears unlikely that the Jaguars, having been outscored by way of eight video games, shedding rookie Travis Hunter to harm and taking part in the identical division because the shocking Colts, are Tremendous Bowl contenders, however this staff finds methods to win, and it added WR Jakobi Meyers on the commerce deadline. The schedule nonetheless options two video games with the Titans and one with the Jets. It is a playoff staff.
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+425)
Walder: Each MVP from 2016 to 2024 completed the season within the prime 4 of QBR, and there is no participant I am extra assured will end there (with out lacking time) this 12 months than Mahomes. He at the moment sits in fourth within the metric, whereas Josh Allen, the favourite for this award at +175, is all the way in which again in eleventh. Allen may lead the Payments to the No. 1 seed within the AFC (they're the favorites, per FPI, albeit at only a 31% likelihood), however voters will see the effectivity drop-off that he has displayed this season. There are a variety of candidates I feel are good bets proper now, with Allen overvalued, however none extra so than Mahomes.
Loza: Had Geno Smith pulled off a successful 2-point conversion in additional time versus Jacksonville in Week 9, odds on the over can be in play. Nonetheless, when reviewing the Raiders' schedule, 5 whole wins seems to be an insurmountable climb. Perhaps Vegas knocks off Dallas? Or stands agency versus Cleveland? However there are no clear gentle spots. Moreover, sending Jakobi Meyers for draft picks appears to point a plan for the long run slightly than the rapid season.
Justin Herbert to win MVP (20-1)
Solak: There's a whole lot of comprehensible hype within the MVP marketplace for Drake Maye (+400), the ascendant quarterback of an upstart Patriots staff that would get the highest seed within the AFC playoffs. However nothing is ever sure within the NFL, and if one thing occurs in New England that reopens the AFC playoff race, who may benefit? How concerning the Chargers and Justin Herbert? Herbert has extra dropbacks than every other quarterback in soccer and has endured horrible cross safety, however Joe Alt is again within the lineup, and issues may get simpler down the stretch.
Puka Nacua to win Offensive Player of the Year (+750)
Walder: Receiver manufacturing, in comparison with working again manufacturing, is far more tethered to a participant's talent in comparison with the encompassing circumstance. So whereas Jonathan Taylor is a good working again, he's awfully depending on these round him — the offensive line, Daniel Jones and even the protection to maintain holding leads — to maintain up his torrid tempo of manufacturing. However Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are extra self-reliant (past their respective quarterbacks) and are producing at extraordinarily spectacular ranges that perhaps the chances may not be fairly appreciating. Nacua has a fully large 37% goal charge and three.6 yards per route run — each second solely to, you guessed it, Smith-Njigba. To place that in context: 3.6 yards per route run can be the third-best season in that class (min. 300 routes) since 2007, behind solely Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith in 2008. I really like Smith-Njigba extra, however as a result of I really feel Taylor is overpriced, I feel each receivers may be values.
Solak: FPI initiatives the Dolphins to win 5.5 video games by the top of the season, and given their comparatively quiet commerce deadline, I am inclined to agree. In maintaining key gamers reminiscent of Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jaylen Waddle and De'von Achane, the Dolphins nonetheless have sufficient firepower to hold with common groups and beat unhealthy groups. Miami is projected for the Tenth-easiest remaining schedule and solely must wrest three wins out of a remaining schedule that features residence video games towards the Commanders, Saints and Bengals, in addition to a rematch with the Jets in New York.
Loza: J.J. McCarthy returned from a five-game hiatus in scrappy trend, topping the division rival Lions and incomes Minnesota its fourth win of the season. Again to well being, put in in a aggressive scheme and surrounded by high-end expertise, the second-year quarterback seems able to main this staff to a blistering end. Bolstered by Brian Flores' competent protection and with gettable matchups dealing with Chicago, Washington, Dallas and the Giants, the Vikings ought to gather 4 extra wins by the shut of the common season.
2:17
Eisen: Drake Maye has ‘dropped his Huggies'
Wealthy Eisen discusses how Drake Maye has reworked the Patriots in his second season within the NFL.
Drake Maye to win MVP (+400)
Moody: Maye's MVP case has gained critical momentum. The second-year QB has the Patriots off to a 7-2 begin, buoyed by six straight wins. Maye joined elite firm by posting eight consecutive video games with a minimum of 200 passing yards and a passer score over 100. That streak has solely been matched by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, every of whom received MVP the identical 12 months. Maye ranks within the prime 10 in passing yards with 2,285 and touchdowns with 17 and has added 270 speeding yards and two scores. With Mike Vrabel remodeling New England, now could be the time to seize Maye's MVP ticket.
Maldonado: New Orleans is 1-8, and the on-field product mirrors the preseason considerations. And now turning to Tyler Shough, that tells you the place this offense stands. Via his first actual motion, Shough was 32-of-56 passing for 304 yards however averaged solely 5.4 yards per try and threw two interceptions. The Saints common 15 factors per sport and rank backside 5 in yards per play, with solely 9 passing touchdowns throughout 9 video games. The working sport is backside three in yards per carry, and there's no explosive menace. The Saints nonetheless face the Buccaneers, Falcons and Dolphins, however these are on the street. Underneath 3.5 at +125 may not be fairly, however it's stay.
Karabell: QB Jaxson Dart nonetheless may win prime offensive rookie honors — he's the favourite at -130, so it's robust to generate profits with the chances — however it is going to be tough to win many soccer video games with out his finest RB and WR. The Giants could be favored in just one or two extra video games, making it onerous to see how they may go from two wins to 5 within the ultimate months.
2:26
Are the Jets taking the correct method to rebuild?
Kimberley Martin defends the Jets' method in buying and selling away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner in a debate with Louis Riddick and Mike Greenberg.
Karabell: The Jets made it clear on commerce deadline day that they're nicely conscious this isn't a playoff staff, dealing a number of prime defensive gamers. Who's the QB? Does it matter? Poor Breece Corridor. The Jets will not go winless, nevertheless it could possibly be robust for them to double their present win whole of 1.
Karabell: The NFC traces modified when the Packers misplaced at residence to the Panthers, however the Eagles nonetheless have the NFC's deepest roster, are loaded with offensive stars and added to the defensive lineup on the commerce deadline. They need to be the NFC's prime seed once more and can be onerous to beat at residence in January.
Bowen: The Steelers have to go 5-4 over the second half of the season to hit the over, and I see winnable video games on the remaining schedule versus the Bengals, Bears, Dolphins and Browns. Pittsburgh additionally has the Chargers, Payments, Lions and two with the Ravens. More durable matchups there, however we're speaking about stealing one sport. And if the Steelers can rush the passer like they did within the Week 9 win over the Colts, this guess will money.
Christian McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year (+600)
Bowen: The league's premier dual-threat again, McCaffrey leads the NFL with 135.8 scrimmage yards per sport. Whereas McCaffrey (eight touchdowns on the season) will want a lift in scoring manufacturing to affix the OPOY dialogue together with the Colts' Jonathan Taylor, he's averaging over 25 touches per sport. He'll have alternatives in one of many league's most closely schemed offenses.
Solak: The Rams had been a considerable favourite going into Week 8 when the Seahawks had been +200, however they're now simply +140, so there is not as a lot worth. Seattle and Los Angeles, each 6-2, have roughly equal power of schedules remaining, however the Seahawks have handled extra accidents within the early season and are seemingly nonetheless underrated by staff energy fashions. You'll be able to at all times hold this ticket in your pocket and attempt to arbitrage it with Rams bets when the groups face off in Week 11 and 16.
Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+175)
Karabell: The payout is not nice, but when Giants QB Jaxson Dart struggles a bit or stops speeding for touchdowns, Egbuka can win this award. The participant out of Ohio State is on tempo for greater than 1,000 receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns, and the Buccaneers are successful their division regardless of coping with large accidents to RB Bucky Irving and WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Egbuka has been terrific.
Maldonado: Tennessee averages simply 14.4 factors and 244 yards per sport with a 28.5% third-down conversion charge, all worst within the league. Cam Ward has been sacked 38 instances and thrown solely 5 landing passes, and the protection permits 28.6 factors per sport and ranks backside 5 in yards per play. Within the again half of the season, Tennessee will not be favored in any sport, dealing with six top-12 defenses and having zero relaxation benefits. The roster is just too younger, the trenches too weak and the passing sport too inefficient to generate two extra wins.
Karabell: The play right here may need been to take the Commanders beneath the win whole earlier than QB Jayden Daniels suffered his critical elbow harm Sunday night time. Now the play is to guess within the different path as a result of backup Marcus Mariota is competent, as are the huge receivers and training workers and, lastly, there are video games remaining towards the Dolphins, Giants and Cowboys — not precisely contenders. As well as, that Week 18 sport towards the Eagles may not matter to the NFC East champs. We will see. Regardless, Mariota is definitely able to successful a sport or, on this case, three.
