Judging greatest overreactions for NFL Week 10 video games

We have been beginning to run low on superlatives for Colts working again Jonathan Taylor and the season he is having. Fortunately, he gave us a brand new one Sunday. That was, with out query, essentially the most spectacular efficiency ever by an NFL participant in Berlin.

OK, so it was the primary NFL recreation ever performed in Berlin. You've got received me there. However I am pretty assured Taylor's effort would maintain up even when they stored taking part in video games there for the following couple of a long time. Taylor rushed for 244 yards and three touchdowns — together with the time beyond regulation recreation winner — in Sunday's 31-25 victory over the Falcons. He caught three passes for an extra 42 yards, in order that's 286 complete yards from scrimmage, together with a panoramic 83-yard TD run that got here along with his group down a degree with simply over six minutes left within the fourth quarter.

Every week after he had simply 45 yards on 14 carries for his worst recreation of the season (and his group's worst recreation of the season), Taylor authored his better of the season and received the Colts again on observe. Indianapolis is 8-2, tied with the Broncos and Patriots for one of the best document within the NFL by Week 10. It was his fourth outing this season with not less than three speeding touchdowns. LaDainian Tomlinson holds the document for essentially the most such video games in a season with 5, and Taylor nonetheless has seven video games left to play. It's not an overreaction to say he deserves to guide this week's overreactions column, the place we dimension up which takeaways are official.

Bounce to:
Taylor will break a number of data
Payments' deadline inactivity will price them
Chiefs-Broncos will resolve AFC West
Seahawks-Rams will resolve NFC West
Commanders' season is over
Fantasy-related overreactions

Jonathan Taylor will break a number of single-season NFL data

Taylor is on tempo for two,378 scrimmage yards, which might be the fourth-most ever in a season and inside shouting distance of Chris Johnson's document of two,509. He is on tempo for 1,936 speeding yards, which might be the tenth most of all time. However with one other recreation or two over 200, he may make a run at Eric Dickerson's document of two,105.

Within the scoring division, he is on tempo for 26 speeding touchdowns, which might be the fourth most of all time. The document for that's Tomlinson's 28 in 2006. And he is on tempo for 28 complete touchdowns, which might tie for the second most ever and be simply three behind Tomlinson's 31 in 2006.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Final week's loss to Pittsburgh apart, this Colts offense has been an absolute wagon, and Taylor has been its engine. (Do wagons have engines? I do not know. Simply go together with it.) He is liable to attain from wherever on the sphere. He has no Zach Charbonnet or Blake Corum or Tyler Allgeier that Indianapolis makes use of to spell him and put a cap on his particular person statistical manufacturing.

It will not essentially be simple, since he has solely two video games left towards groups that do not have top-five speeding defenses. However the Colts are going to maintain leaning on him, and so long as the offensive line retains taking part in nicely, there isn't any telling how far Taylor can take this.

The Payments' lack of ability to seek out assist on the commerce deadline will price them the AFC East

Coming off their most spectacular win of the season — a Week 9 throttling of the three-time defending AFC champion Chiefs — the Payments went right down to Miami and laid an egg towards a divisional opponent with one of many league's worst data. Honest to anticipate a letdown after final week, I assume, however Buffalo cannot be dropping to the Dolphins if it needs us to take it severely as a Tremendous Bowl contender.

Plus, the Patriots — who already received in Buffalo earlier this season — received their seventh recreation in a row Sunday to enhance to 8-2, which places them a recreation and a half forward of the Payments within the division standings. This loss may come again to hang-out the Payments even when they beat the Patriots in Foxborough in Week 15. The second tiebreaker for division standings, after head-to-head document, is document in division video games. The Payments are 2-2 towards AFC East groups whereas the Pats are 2-0.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Two years in the past, it appeared just like the Dolphins have been going to run away with the division, and the Payments nonetheless caught them within the remaining week to say the crown. Buffalo has received the AFC East 5 years in a row. It is aware of methods to do it.

May the Payments have used some assistance on the defensive aspect of the ball on the deadline? Completely, and so they tried to seek out it. They're permitting 147.6 speeding yards per recreation and have already given up extra speeding TDs than they did all final season (14), per ESPN Analysis. However coach Sean McDermott and his employees have proven repeatedly that they will get their protection into playoff form by December and January.

The Patriots are legit, do not get me unsuitable, and Drake Maye is a deserving favourite for MVP in the meanwhile. However the Payments have carried out this, and the present iteration of the Patriots haven't. I have to see that little “x” subsequent to New England within the standings earlier than I imagine it.

The winner of subsequent week's Chiefs-Broncos matchup will win the AFC West

Denver opened the week with one of many least spectacular wins in NFL historical past, beating the Raiders 10-7 on Thursday night time in a recreation I really feel unhealthy even citing. The Broncos have received simply two video games this season by a couple of rating. They beat the Jets by two factors, the Giants by one level and the Raiders by three. By rights, they need to have misplaced not less than two of these video games, if not all three.

However they did not, and so they're 8-2 and in first place. The Chiefs, on bye this week, are 5-4 and in third place forward of subsequent week's journey to Denver. They're coming off one of the crucial lackluster performances of the Patrick Mahomes period (final week's loss to Buffalo), however they're going to even be coming off that bye, and Andy Reid is 22-4 all-time off a bye. This units as much as be the highest recreation of Week 11.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Look, I do know what I simply mentioned concerning the Payments. And I do know the Chiefs have received this division 9 years in a row. I additionally know that the Broncos are skating by in loads of these video games and that one-score win luck tends to meet up with most groups finally. However I am simply speaking concerning the math right here.

If Denver wins subsequent week, it will go into its personal bye week main the Chiefs by three and a half video games. Even when Kansas Metropolis beats the Colts in Week 12, the Broncos would come out of the bye week with a three-game lead and 6 video games to play. I by no means put something previous Reid and Mahomes, however that may be a tricky hill to climb.

Conversely, if the Chiefs win subsequent week, the Broncos go into their bye nonetheless questioning if they've what it takes to recover from that Kansas Metropolis hump. If the Chiefs beat the Colts in Week 12, they'd be only one recreation behind the Broncos with six to play and would have one head-to-head tiebreaker victory in hand. Large, large swing, not less than so far as I can inform.

The winner of subsequent week's Seahawks-Rams matchup will win the NFC West

There have been spectacular division wins for these groups Sunday. The Seahawks jumped out to a 35-0 first-half lead over Arizona and cruised from there. The Rams constructed a 21-0 lead on the 49ers, who got here again and minimize it to at least one rating however could not overcome L.A. for the season sweep. In line with ESPN Analysis, Matthew Stafford turned the primary QB ever with 4 landing passes and nil interceptions in three straight video games, whereas the Seahawks' protection completed with 22 pressures.

Now the Rams and Seahawks are each 7-2 and play one another in Los Angeles on Sunday in one other one of many actually large video games of the week.

The Niners' harm points mixed with Sunday's loss depart the group at 6-4, a recreation and a half behind the Rams and Seahawks, and Arizona is citing the rear at 3-6 after its first blowout lack of the season. So the winner of Seahawks-Rams in Week 11 shall be within the driver's seat within the NFC West.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

The winner of subsequent week's recreation can have a one-game lead, and these groups play one another once more in Week 16. This division is much from over, regardless of who wins Sunday. Sure, the victor can have a leg up, however the Rams nonetheless have each of their Arizona video games left together with video games towards the Bucs and the Lions. The Seahawks nonetheless have one other 49ers recreation to play in addition to a recreation towards the Colts.

The Rams and Seahawks are tied for first, however this NFC West is a beast of a division. The 49ers play robust, and so do the Cardinals, who earlier than Sunday had not misplaced a recreation by greater than 4 factors all season and simply stifled the high-octane Cowboys offense on Nov. 3. There is a loooooong technique to go within the West, regardless of who wins subsequent Sunday.

Jayden Daniels should not play once more this season even when he is cleared

The Commanders' electrifying second-year quarterback dislocated his left elbow towards the top of the group's Week 9 loss to Seattle and missed Sunday's loss to the Lions consequently. He might need to overlook extra video games with the harm, which is his third important harm of the season. However the Commanders are 3-7 and their once-promising season looks as if it will not finish with a second consecutive playoff berth.

There's a little bit of a drumbeat round the concept that, by the point Daniels is cleared to return to play, Washington shall be out of it and will not be definitely worth the threat of additional harm to place him again into video games, as he is too vital to the franchise's long-term future. We do not know for positive when or even when he shall be cleared to return, but when it is not till after the group's Week 12 bye, you'll be able to form of see the reasoning behind the argument.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Effectively, I hate this argument. I perceive the premise behind it, however I hate it.

Soccer is a harmful recreation. Any participant can get harm on actually any play. Daniels is a soccer participant and needs to play. Washington continues to be charging for the tickets and may really feel a duty to place the absolute best product on the sphere. And Daniels is a big a part of the Commanders' very best product. He is additionally a second-year quarterback who may stand to play and proceed to realize expertise. The harm is not to his legs or his throwing arm. If the medical doctors say he can play and it is protected, then he ought to play, interval.

Plus … who's to say the Commanders are out of it? In the event that they beat Miami subsequent week in Madrid, they go into the bye at 4-7. Seven groups make the playoffs in every convention. Carry Daniels again, run the desk to get to 10-7 and perhaps squeak in to make one other run just like the one they made final season. Do not play scared.

Fast-hitter fantasy overreactions

• TreVeyon Henderson is a must-start RB from right here on out. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Yeah, he may theoretically return right into a timeshare as soon as Rhamondre Stevenson is wholesome, and the Patriots' teaching employees has but to indicate sufficient belief within the rookie that you simply really feel 100% assured he is set-and-forget. However two lengthy landing runs Sunday reminded you of why you drafted him within the first place. Only a few backs provide that a lot week-winning upside.

• It's essential to seize Tyler Shough in case you're in a keeper league. OVERREACTION. Hey, going 19-for-27 for 282 yards and two landing passes is nothing to sneeze at. However in case you're taking part in in a one-QB league, I feel you are protected ready to see him do it once more. The Saints are having the form of season that leads to very excessive draft picks, and there may very well be a QB in subsequent 12 months's first spherical they like higher than this man.

• Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can each be in fantasy beginning lineups. OVERREACTION. I imply, they can, I assume, in case you're coping with accidents or bye weeks or no matter. However even Sunday, Allgeier's large recreation got here on the expense of Robinson's goal-line work. I've lived that life, my associates. I've tried it. I can not advocate it as a weekly expertise.

• Justin Jefferson's fantasy ceiling is capped by J.J. McCarthy. NOT AN OVERREACTION. I actually want it have been an overreaction, however we've not seen something but to persuade us the McCarthy-led offense is something apart from a low-volume passing recreation. Jordan Addison and even Jalen Nailor are simply as liable to have the massive recreation as Jefferson. Positive, the Vikings threw it 42 instances Sunday, however McCarthy nonetheless had solely 248 yards. That is 90 greater than he had in any of his first three video games because the starter. I am hoping it will get higher, however hope is all I've for you.

• Tyler Warren is the TE1 in subsequent 12 months's drafts. OVERREACTION. I like Warren and what he is doing and his position in that Colts offense, however for goodness' sake, man. … What if Brock Bowers will get a QB improve?