Dan Graziano
It has been stated by some — properly, by me, at the least — that Week 1 is the Tremendous Bowl for the Overreactions column.
Final 12 months in Week 1, the Patriots beat the Bengals … then did not win once more till Week 8. The Saints scored 47 factors and 44 extra in Week 2 … then did not win once more till Week 10. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, misplaced 37-20 to the Buccaneers … then reached the NFC Championship Recreation.
So go forward and fake that every thing within the NFL is found out. Assume the Chiefs are executed, that the Eagles cannot cowl anyone, that the Giants will not rating a landing all season and that the Falcons proceed to be cursed. It is Week 1 of an 18-week schedule. You are nearly actually overreacting.
However that is what we do right here — type by the weekly overreactions to determine which of them may maintain up and which of them are mirages. Week 1 is hard as a result of we have now so little proof, however that is additionally what makes it a lot enjoyable.
Bounce to:
Chiefs' AFC West run is over?
Dolphins drafting No. 1?
Dart to be Giants' QB1 quickly?
Steelers' offense is playoff-ready?
Packers class of NFC?
The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs will not win the AFC West this season
Friday evening's opener in Brazil did not go properly for the nine-time defending division champions. The Chiefs misplaced 27-21 to the rival Chargers. The offense, after shedding speedy wideout Xavier Worthy due to a dislocated shoulder on the third play, regarded out of sync and nonexplosive. The protection could not gradual Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was working for his life quite a bit like he did final season. A Kansas Metropolis staff that we anticipated to return out offended about being embarrassed within the Tremendous Bowl did not look a lot completely different than in stated Tremendous Bowl.
Worthy may need to overlook time, and high receiver Rashee Rice is suspended for 5 extra video games. To high it off, the AFC West-rival Chargers regarded implausible and now have a sport in hand on the Chiefs in what could possibly be an intense three-way race between these two groups and a scary-looking Broncos squad. Not the best way Kansas Metropolis desires to start out its season.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Clearly. That is nonetheless the Andy Reid/Mahomes Chiefs. They regarded awful offensively all final season and nonetheless went 15-2 and received to a 3rd straight Tremendous Bowl. Ought to issues be more durable this season? Completely. And 15-2 would not really feel overly repeatable, particularly when the primary sport is a loss. However no staff over the previous decade has extra constantly addressed and solved its issues through the season.
The Chiefs are extraordinarily enthusiastic about rookie left deal with Josh Simmons, and he ought to enhance. Rice might be again after Week 6, and Worthy ought to return sooner or later. Mahomes nonetheless delivered a couple of patented magical moments, and the Chiefs get three further days to relaxation and put together for his or her Week 2 sport in opposition to … checks notes … oh, the Eagles. Maybe we must always revisit this subsequent week.
The Miami Dolphins might be selecting first within the 2026 draft … and on the lookout for a QB
I went out on a limb this preseason, considering that the Dolphins won't be as unhealthy as many thought. Perhaps that impulse will ultimately be proper. In any case, Sunday's 33-8 loss to the Daniel Jones-led Colts was just one sport, and it might find yourself being Miami's worst sport of the season. However hoo boy, this was ugly.
It was 30-0 earlier than Miami lastly scored with below seven minutes remaining within the sport. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a depressing 14-for-23 for 114 yards, with 2 interceptions and a misplaced fumble. The protection, which has been hit onerous by damage on the again finish and misplaced cornerback Storm Duck due to damage through the sport, gave Jones nearly every thing he wished. The previous Giants' first-round choose was 22-for-29 for 272 yards and a landing cross, and he ran for 2 extra scores. It was a nightmare opener for a Dolphins staff that wished to show the web page on a disappointing 8-9 season in 2024.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Once more, I did not enter the season anticipating Miami to be one of many NFL's worst groups. However lots of people did, and I've actually been flawed earlier than. It is potential the protection by no means will get totally wholesome and appears this susceptible all season. It is potential Tagovailoa retains struggling, although he has usually performed properly below Mike McDaniel when wholesome. This program may by no means rediscover the promise it confirmed in 2022 and 2023, when the Dolphins made the playoffs in McDaniel's first two seasons.
It is necessary to notice that Tagovailoa has $54 million in totally assured cash in 2026 and can nearly actually nonetheless be the Dolphins' starter at the least by that season (if wholesome). But when this season bottoms out and the Dolphins are selecting at or close to the highest of what is regarded as a QB-rich draft, it isn't an enormous leap to anticipate them to consider the long run at that place.
It was just one sport, nevertheless it was ugly in all of the methods Miami's doubters feared it might be. And when that occurs, even in Week 1, some alarm bells are justified.
Jaxson Dart would be the New York Giants' beginning quarterback by the tip of September
You wish to discuss wanting ugly? I watched the Giants lose 21-6 to the Commanders in individual Sunday, and this offense does not look aggressive with Russell Wilson working it. Wilson was pressured on 16 of his 45 dropbacks (36%) and dealt with that strain fairly poorly. He was 2-of-12 for 26 yards and was sacked twice when pressured.
He wasn't a lot better when he had time to throw, ending 17-for-37 for 168 yards. He ran for 44 yards on eight carries, primarily scrambles to get away from stated strain. The Giants moved the ball at occasions and received into some goal-to-go conditions however couldn't rating a landing. New York had 231 whole yards, averaged 4 yards per cross try and three.2 yards per rush. One of the best factor you possibly can say in regards to the Giants' offense Sunday is that the unit did not flip the ball over. But, the Giants nonetheless misplaced by 15.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Giants coach Brian Daboll would not wish to be pressured into beginning Dart, his first-round rookie quarterback, earlier than he is prepared. Daboll would not need Dart to really feel that strain, both. However when requested after the sport whether or not Wilson would begin subsequent week in Dallas, Daboll wasn't definitive.
What we all know is that the Giants made Dart their No. 2 quarterback Sunday, which implies they trusted him to enter the sport and run their offense if one thing had occurred to Wilson. We additionally know they've labored with Dart on some particular packages (however these have been carried out Sunday) that might reap the benefits of his working means. Dart regarded implausible within the preseason, and although the common season is a special story and the Giants have a frightening early schedule, his athleticism would probably add some juice that Wilson would not provide at this level in his profession.
Dart will begin eventually. Daboll and the Giants' coaches have been methodical about their improvement plan for him and don't wish to speed up it as a result of the offense is struggling. However Dart is perhaps the higher choice now. And maybe he might deal with the duty.
The Pittsburgh Steelers lastly have an offense that may assist them advance previous the wild-card spherical of the playoffs
Aaron Rodgers' Steelers debut was a thriller. Rodgers rolled into MetLife Stadium to play the Jets, who launched him this spring after two very disappointing seasons. He threw 4 landing passes, and the Steelers stole a victory after Chris Boswell nailed a 60-yard discipline aim late of their 34-32 win.
In a sport between groups we thought would wish to gradual issues down and lean on their run video games, Rodgers and his New York substitute, Justin Fields, delivered a breathless shootout. The Jets appeared to have issues below management, main 26-17 within the fourth quarter, however a fumbled kickoff after a Pittsburgh landing arrange Rodgers to place the Steelers forward with 14:07 left. Even after Fields led the Jets on a go-ahead landing drive, Pittsburgh nonetheless received into place for Boswell to win it with a monster kick.
The Steelers scored greater than 34 factors twice final season with Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback. So, Sunday's efficiency certainly has Steelers followers dreaming massive about an offense that hasn't scored on this method since Ben Roethlisberger was quarterback.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I imply … actually? Sure, 34 factors is nice. However this was a lengthy manner from a playoff sport, and the Steelers took benefit of some severe items. The Jets outgained them 394 yards to 271, dedicated seven penalties and produced the sport's solely turnover at a pivotal time. And the Steelers nonetheless wanted a 60-yard discipline aim to win. Play that sport in Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas Metropolis in January, and also you ain't successful it.
Be inspired that this Steelers offense is perhaps extra constantly productive and thrilling than in 2024, however do not be bought. And do not gloss over the truth that the protection, which is meant to be the fixed in Pittsburgh, could not cease Fields and the Jets.
Rodgers hasn't received a playoff sport because the 2020 season, and he'll be 42 when this 12 months's playoffs begin. Nice sport, nice begin, however it is going to take much more for me to be satisfied that the Steelers can reverse their latest pattern of playoff fizzle-outs.
You may argue for the Colts or Chargers, however no staff regarded higher by the Sunday afternoon video games to me than the Packers, who swallowed up the Lions on either side of the ball and made a robust early assertion with a 27-13 victory. Inexperienced Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is in his second season with the staff, and 12 months 2 in a brand new scheme usually will produce a giant enchancment.
Holding the defending division champion Lions to a late landing and 246 whole yards is not any joke. Inexperienced Bay quarterback Jordan Love was environment friendly, three Packers gamers scored touchdowns and Micah Parsons was clearly an element regardless of taking part in restricted snaps. The Lions ought to be nice, however the Packers wanted this one and so they received it with authority.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Packers have been my preseason choose to signify the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl, and nothing I noticed Sunday makes me waver. Final season (together with playoffs), Inexperienced Bay went 0-6 in video games in opposition to the Lions, Vikings and Eagles — the NFC's high three groups within the common season — and 11-1 in opposition to everybody else.
The 2024 Packers have been on the sting of greatness, however could not beat the convention's finest groups. They'd the youngest roster within the league final season and do once more this 12 months, however they're deep and proficient with extremely expert playcallers on either side of the ball. And a Week 1 victory over the Lions — notably a dominant one like Sunday — is what the Packers wanted to get their season off to a confidence-fueled begin.
