Jets commerce Sauce Gardner to Colts: Answering 6 key questions

The final time the Indianapolis Colts had been thought-about this robust of a Tremendous Bowl contender was 2014, once they entered Week 10 with 10-1 odds to win the title. They made it to the AFC Championship Recreation that yr.

The Colts began Tuesday with 12-1 odds to win the Tremendous Bowl, and that improved to 11-1 after buying Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets for 2 first-round draft picks.

The Colts (7-2) clearly imagine they've their strongest likelihood to win their first Lombardi Trophy for the reason that 2006 season as they went all-in for the 25-year-old Gardner, whom the Jets made the highest-paid cornerback within the offseason.

Indianapolis travels to Berlin, Germany, this weekend to face the Atlanta Falcons (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Community), nevertheless it's unsure if Gardner will probably be prepared in time to play. The Colts are hopeful.

Transferring the 2022 fourth general draft choose wasn't the one main deal the Jets made earlier than Tuesday's 4 p.m. ET deadline. In addition they dealt defensive sort out Quinnen Williams to the Dallas Cowboys for a second-round choose in 2026, a first-rounder in 2027 and defensive sort out Mazi Smith.

The Jets are firmly in rebuild mode and have collected a number of excessive draft picks. However how shortly can they flip issues round?

Colts reporter Stephen Holder, Jets reporter Wealthy Cimini, NFL draft analyst Matt Miller and NFL analysts Matt Bowen and Aaron Schatz break down the commerce from numerous views. And Cowboys reporter Todd Archer weighs in on whether or not the commerce places the Micah Parsons-to-Inexperienced Bay deal in a brand new perspective.

Do the Colts view this because the final piece of a Tremendous Bowl puzzle?

Holder: Presumably. It is essentially the most formidable roster they've had underneath GM Chris Ballard, who has presided over only one playoff victory in 9 seasons.

He hasn't made many massive swings like this, and when he has, the outcomes have been blended. The Colts traded a first-round selection for defensive sort out DeForest Buckner in 2020, and that transfer netted them one of many staff's finest gamers of the previous 5 years. However Ballard's transfer to amass quarterback Carson Wentz with first-round and third-round decisions in 2021 didn't pan out properly.

That Ballard is making, maybe, the boldest transfer of his profession ought to say rather a lot concerning the Colts' present place and their postseason hopes.

What does this commerce imply for the Jets?

Cimini: They're out of the Sauce enterprise, however they've loads of juice for the 2026 and 2027 offseasons — 5 first-round picks, together with a 2027 first-rounder from the Williams commerce. It offers them loads of draft capital to maneuver for a quarterback, their largest want.

After a 1-7 begin, the Jets' new regime — coach Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey — acknowledged the roster is extra poor than initially anticipated. It will enable them to fill a number of holes. The staff obtained an early begin, as former Colts huge receiver Adonai Mitchell was included within the commerce. He is an underperforming receiver with upside, underneath contract by 2027. He joins John Metchie III, acquired final week, in a revamped receiving corps.

Mainly, the Jets are centered on the longer term. That is the draw back to the commerce: How can the present gamers keep motivated realizing the entrance workplace already is pondering forward to 2026?

If the Jets do not commerce up, what non-QB picks ought to they aim with their 5 first-round picks over the following two years?

Miller: Quarterback is clearly the Jets' largest want but when we're speaking non-QBs, New York must rebuild a protection that is now with out its two finest gamers. Within the 2026 class, defensive sort out Peter Woods (Clemson) suits what the staff wants up entrance. Ought to the Jets wish to give attention to the sting, Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) is enjoying like a top-five prospect with a three-down ability set that completely suits Aaron Glenn's protection. Offensively, that is nonetheless a staff in want of skill-position expertise to ease the burden on huge receiver Garrett Wilson. May we see the Jets pair him with a deep risk like Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)?

Waiting for 2027 — a draft class that appears to be one of many strongest in a very long time — the Jets can have three first-round picks to make use of on elite prospects akin to receivers Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) and Ryan Williams (Alabama), together with edge rusher Colin Simmons (Texas).

Why did the Jets commerce Gardner solely 5 months after making him the highest-paid cornerback?

Cimini: They weren't actively buying Gardner, however the provide was too good to refuse, particularly for a rebuilding staff. After they signed the $120 million extension in June, he was trumpeted as a foundational participant. Life modifications shortly within the NFL. Maybe the luster wore off. By most metrics, Gardner is having a very good season, however he hasn't performed at an elite stage since his historic rookie season in 2021. He has no interceptions; in reality, he has solely three in 55 profession video games and his penalty fee has elevated.

Clearly, the Jets noticed a replaceable participant. They're excessive on rookie Azareye'h Thomas, who changed Gardner (concussion) within the final sport and performed properly.

Does this commerce have an effect on how we should always view the Cowboys' Micah Parsons commerce return (two Packers first-round picks and Kenny Clark)?

Archer: Are we making an attempt to say Jerry Jones made out higher than anticipated now? I can not go there as a result of the timing of these trades. The Colts had been up in opposition to the commerce deadline. The Cowboys carried out the Parsons' negotiations properly into the summer season once they had a sense earlier than the draft {that a} long-term deal was unlikely.

A transfer within the spring would have allowed the Cowboys a greater likelihood to fill gaps on their protection. Indianapolis made a win-now commerce for a younger cornerback with good thing about their 7-2 begin to the season. The Cowboys made their commerce relying on too many elements that haven't come collectively up to now. The true worth of the Parsons commerce will probably be based mostly on what the Cowboys get with the 2 first-rounders, both with gamers or extra picks.

How does Gardner match the Colts' defensive system underneath Lou Anarumo?

Bowen: Gardner has the protection traits to make the simple change to Anarumo's scheme. The Colts play a ton of man protection, which caters to Gardner's press abilities. He is a rangy defender with the size to problem receivers on the snap. And Anarumo can now use Gardner in particular matchups, particularly on third down, the place the Colts have performed man on 62.2% of opponent dropbacks, the eighth most within the league.

Let's not neglect that Gardner can patrol the flat in Indy's Cowl 2 appears, too. He additionally has the lower-body quickness to play off the ball in three-deep protection. And we may see Anarumo utilizing Gardner to lock the again facet of zone coverages. Whereas Gardner has been extra of a ball disruptor than playmaker throughout his time within the NFL, his presence within the Colts' secondary positively offers Anarumo extra flexibility as a defensive playcaller.

What do the metrics say about Gardner's stage of play?

Schatz: Gardner was stellar in his first couple of seasons for the Jets. He is again to being glorious this yr, so long as you alter for who he has been masking. Nevertheless, cornerbacks are notoriously inconsistent in each doable metric, and Gardner is not any exception with mediocre play in 2024.

Gardner completed eighth amongst qualifying cornerbacks in my cornerback protection DVOA metric in each his rookie yr of 2022 and his second season, 2023. Final yr, nevertheless, he dropped to sixty fourth. He allowed 9.6 yards per play in protection, one of many worst figures within the league; his protection DVOA was higher as a result of he wasn't focused regularly in comparison with different beginning cornerbacks.

This yr, Gardner is again to eighth amongst qualifying cornerbacks. What's necessary listed here are opponent changes. Earlier than changes, Gardner would have a mean protection DVOA. Nevertheless, Gardner has lined opposing WR1 on 64% of his protection snaps, tied for first within the league with Patrick Surtain II. That has included a variety of DK Metcalf, George Pickens (with CeeDee Lamb damage) and Mike Evans. So as soon as we alter for opponent energy, Gardner comes out as one of many prime cornerbacks in protection as soon as once more.

Gardner was simply signed to a file four-year, $120.4 million contract extension. What are the cap implications to the Jets and Colts?

Holder: This deal will probably be comparatively manageable for the Colts within the brief time period. As a result of Gardner's signing bonus was paid by the Jets, and since lots of the ensures are tied to choice bonuses, the salary-cap implications are minimal for a contract of this dimension.

The Colts pays roughly half of Gardner's $1.25 million base wage in 2025. They will pay him in extra of $25 million in 2026, however the cap determine is a meager $9.5 million as a result of choice bonuses could also be prorated over the lifetime of a contract.

Gardner does have a large $13.5 million base wage in 2027 which, when mixed with numerous bonuses, will push his cap determine to $20.9 million. In 2028, 2029 and 2030, Gardner is scheduled to have cap numbers of $26.2 million, $36.1 million and $36.1 million. These numbers might be decreased or eradicated by restructures or through releasing Gardner.