Liz Loza
Have you ever ever sensed one thing so deeply in your bones that it moved from being a hunch to unequivocal realizing?
Possibly it began as a whisper (or a drumbeat) and slowly, over time, as you listened extra intently and additional investigated the circumstances, a fervent assuredness started to materialize. One which you can not be dissuaded from trusting, irrespective of how many individuals checked out you sideways or doubted your thought course of. Your conclusion remained indubitable. If this ship was taking place, you then had been taking place with it, together with Jack and Rose.
Conversely, have you ever ever sat throughout from a pal who was equally steadfast in a take that made your head spin? Not since you had been compelled by passionate settlement, however as a result of it sounded completely ridiculous? One which made you query how somebody you love and respect so absolutely may probably evaluation the info and arrive at such an out-of-pocket resolution?
The primary we think about conviction. The second we dub delusion. The 2 dwell dangerously shut to 1 one other, seemingly separated solely by perspective and ego. However there's extra to it than that. True conviction is (or must be) borne out by an exhaustive quantity of analysis. Acquired by way of fact-checking and dot-connecting, not stumbled upon like bumper sticker knowledge or, worse, a persuasive Insta. Delusion, alternatively, seems the results of rosy-colored rumour. A vacation spot realized out of want, quite than veracity. One thing we devotedly daydreamed.
Each are emotions, however one is based on info.
It's that rigorously combed and thought of info that compels our argument. It's the bedrock of our perception and that which urges our ahead movement. With out calculable supplies and measurements our stance — and the motivations behind sharing it — are flimsy at finest and egocentric at worst. One stands on enterprise. The opposite is not standing in any respect.
We usually negotiate the house between these two concepts in fantasy. Every lineup tweak may be considered a tiny dance between well-informed confidence and Hail-Mary hope. Most of us know after we're tipping in some way. For instance, I stubbornly shoved Jameson Williams into a number of flex spots, willfully ignoring (regardless of absolutely greedy and even writing about) his lack of quantity. Interchangeably, I enthusiastically began Ashton Jeanty in all places, resolute in my information of (after spending a lot of the summer season/month/week crowing about) his potential and Week 4 matchup.
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Why Loza expects Jeanty to proceed to face out in Week 5
Liz Loza heaps reward on Ashton Jeanty's large efficiency in opposition to the Bears and previews his Week 5 matchup in opposition to the Colts.
After all, not each well-researched “begin” will likely be blessed by 33 factors. And, undoubtedly, some “sits” will nonetheless blow-up benches. That is the deliciously irritating a part of this recreation that retains us coming again. The work we do is immediately proportional to our surety. It informs our endurance and our willingness to let go of conditions (and gamers) that now not serve us (or our groups). Higher to lose with conviction than be led by delusion. If we occur to win, nicely then that is additional affirmation of our course of… and our individual.
Setting Sensible Week 5 Expectations
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots: Led by clear conviction for his expertise, Patriots brass went all in on Maye, restructuring the membership to create an surroundings of progress for the 23-year-old. With a 2-2 document, the outcomes have been blended, however Maye has largely delivered for digital traders. At the moment fantasy's QB4 general (behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes), Maye is averaging 21 fantasy factors per recreation and has completed no worse than the QB8 for 3 straight weeks.
The previous North Carolina standout has delivered by means of the air and on the bottom, registering 988 passing yards in addition to 98 dashing yards, a feat no different participant has but achieved. Nearly unbelievably (particularly given the expertise at his avail), Maye is main the league in completion share (74%). He is additionally produced 9 TDs (seven passing, two dashing), with solely Allen and Jackson having logged extra.
Undeniably, Maye has impressed as a passer. His dashing manufacturing, nonetheless, has considerably boosted his inventory. Clearing 45 dashing yards in three consecutive efforts, Maye has recorded 24 dashing makes an attempt, tying him for fifth on the place with Justin Fields and Caleb Williams. With a median of almost two designed runs per recreation (QB11), it seems that Maye's mobility is a aware piece of the offensive plan, one which figures to be completely utilized at Orchard Park on Sunday evening. The Payments cannot cease the run, permitting a median of 6.0 YPC to rushers whereas moreover having given up essentially the most dashing yards (199) to QBs. With the Patriots being 7.5-point street canine, Maye's problem will not be straightforward, however his toil ought to reward avid gamers with QB8 numbers.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans: This is the factor about factors: They do not should be fairly. That works out nicely for Collins as a result of his manufacturing has been decidedly ugly. Collins is the one Texans participant with greater than 50 receiving yards in a recreation, and the one Houston WR with greater than 32 receiving yards in a contest. Furthermore, his 260 receiving yards are simply 5 shy of the remainder of the corps' complete (265) on the season. Yuck.
The good thing about being enveloped by subpar expertise, in fact, is that Collins stays the go-to choice. His 31 appears to be like account for almost 27 % of the staff's complete goal share. For context, his 8.3 appears to be like per recreation place him twelfth on the place in goal share. Regardless of the clear obstacles, Collins has carried out admirably together with his possibilities. He is averaged 16.2 fantasy factors per recreation over his final three outings, rating eleventh on the place since Week 2.
The matchup suggests a continued optimistic trajectory for the star wideout. Baltimore was simply carved up by Patrick Mahomes with three Kansas Metropolis receivers posting 12 or extra fantasy factors in Week 4. Understanding that C.J. Stroud is not any Patty Mahomes, it is value mentioning that eight receivcers topped 10 or extra fantasy when going through the Ravens to this point this season. Moreover, Marlon Humphrey (calf) is predicted to take a seat on Sunday, making Collins' job all the better. Even in what's projected to be a (doubtless sloppy) low-scoring recreation (the full opened at 43.5 however has fallen to below 40 at ESPN BET), fantasy managers can belief Collins to publish prime 5 positional numbers.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints: Whereas we're on the subject of “messy however higher than mid,” Olave managers cannot be disenchanted together with his present WR27 standing, particularly given his Tenth-round ADP (WR88). The 25-year-old could also be changing solely about 60 % of the passes Spencer Rattler sails his manner, however the general quantity has been strong sufficient to maintain Olave in wholesome flex territory. Olave, unsurprisingly, leads the Saints in targets, having drawn double-digit appears to be like (13, 10, 14) over the primary three weeks of 2025. His numbers dipped barely final Sunday, however so did the Saints' passing price, which fell from 65% in Weeks 1-3 (third-highest) to 52 % in Week 4.
Regardless, Olave stays the WR1 in a pass-friendly offense. His matchup on the Giants solely betters his odds of delivering a top-20 fantasy WR end. Admittedly, New York's line of defense acquired after Justin Herbert final weekend. As such, the squad figures to, nicely, rattle The Rattler this Sunday. Nonetheless, the G-Males's secondary has been usually picked on, remaining beneficiant when examined. Not solely have No. 1 WRs registered double-digit targets when going through Huge Blue (10, 11, 9, 13), however every prime wideout scored 18 or extra fantasy factors within the course of. Take into account Olave a strong WR2 for fantasy functions in Week 5.
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: It has been a frustratingly topsy-turvy marketing campaign for Brown. Regardless of drawing 28 appears to be like, the veteran wideout has collected simply 14 receptions (WR38). Admittedly, Philly has performed conservatively when main, which has suppressed the receiving alternatives. Given the staff's 4-0 document, it is also been a continuing theme (and a components that is unlikely to alter).
But, digging a bit deeper, Jalen Hurts' accuracy has waned, as he is accomplished 70 of 101 passes (69.3%, QB9). His effectivity hit a season low at Tampa Bay (62.5%), the place he went 0-for-8 within the second half of final week's contest (essentially the most makes an attempt with no completion in a half by any QB since 2008). He struggled to attach with Brown, tossing 5 of 9 balls off-target to his No. 1 WR. That is in stark distinction to the prior three weeks, through which Hurts threw only one off-target go (out of a complete of 20) Brown's manner.
It is also not a wholly new problem. Brown has registered fewer than three catches and 15 yards in 4 of his final eight video games, together with the playoffs final 12 months. His totals have turn into legitimately growth or bust. That makes the 28-year-old extra matchup-prone than beforehand anticipated. A house recreation versus Denver's suffocating protection, subsequently, would not determine to be an answer for the struggling wideout (or his fantasy traders). The Broncos have allowed simply two passing scores (and just one to a WR, Keenan Allen in Week 3) over 4 video games. Given the Eagles' offensive fashion and the matchup, Brown cannot be trusted as something greater than a WR2 within the WR18-20 vary.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals: There have been excessive hopes for Benson heading into TNF final week. The second-year again had flashed behind James Conner, ripping off two runs of greater than 20 yards simply three efforts into 2025 and averaging almost 6.0 yards per contact. Whereas his debut because the staff's main ball provider underwhelmed, there stays room for optimism. He did, in any case, document double-digit touches in a contest fraught with detrimental recreation script. For context, Benson's eight carries accounted for over 40 % of the staff's rushes. Add in his 5 grabs (on 5 targets), and his alternatives made up almost 30 % of the Cardinals' complete touches. Furthermore, Benson's numbers heartily outweighed these logged by Emari Demercado (4) or Michael Carter (1).
The matchup moreover softens considerably for Benson heading into Week 5. Tennessee's protection has allowed a median of 29.5 fantasy factors per recreation to opposing runners. Particularly, every lead again to face the Titans has managed double-digit fantasy stats.
With the Cardinals getting into as 7.5-point residence favorites, recreation movement ought to work in Benson's favor. Keep the course right here. He is a strong RB2 (and potential buy-low candidate) heading into Sunday's motion.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Cue Harry Types as a result of Seattle's backfield is similar because it ever was. Regardless of issues concerning a foot harm, Charbonnet performed second fiddle (albeit an exuberant one) to Kenneth Walker in Week 4. The Wally Pipp narrative was robust on the heels of an eye-opening Week 1. That story is not prone to fade away after Charbs discovered the top zone once more final Thursday evening. Nonetheless, a deep dive of the info ought to mood the tales of a looming takeover.
Walker maintained marginal management of Seattle's backfield, staying on the sphere for 52 % of the staff's snaps whereas Charbonnet was lively for 45 % of the offensive performs. Apparently, Charbonnet ran extra routes (12) than Walker (9), however the incumbent again logged seven extra carries (and drew the identical variety of targets) than the second-year rusher. Prefer it or not, it is a committee, and Walker is serving extra upside per contact, as evidenced by his superior effectivity metrics and his +2.6 EPA (RB19).
Each backs determine to face an uphill batter versus Tampa Bay in Week 5. The Buccaneers run protection did an admirable job of holding Saquon Barkley to simply 43 dashing yards on 19 makes an attempt final Sunday. The truth is, the Bucs have allowed the second-lowest YPC (3.3) to rushers all season. Given the time share cut up and the matchup, Walker presents RB2 enchantment whereas Charbs tasks as a TD-dependent flex choice. Proceed to stash and begin Charbonnet as wanted, understanding that he is extra of a trusted 1B than a soon-to-be-exalted 1A (so long as KW3 stays wholesome).
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants: Successfully streaming the tight finish place has shortly turn into certainly one of my favourite pastimes inside a pastime. Since Mason Taylor shined as fantasy's TE11 in Week 4 (11.5 FPTS), I am motivated to establish this week's under-the-radar star.
Chosen within the fourth spherical of final 12 months's NFL draft, Johnson was lauded for his pace (4.57), separation expertise and blocking capacity whereas at Penn State. As a professional, he managed a pair of double-digit fantasy outings earlier than his rookie marketing campaign was lower quick as a consequence of a foot harm on Thanksgiving. Now again to well being, the second-year TE has drawn at the very least 5 appears to be like in two of 4 video games. He additionally occurred to be on the receiving finish of Jaxson Dart's first TD final Sunday.
With Malik Nabers (knee) out for the rest of the season, Johnson's alternatives ought to improve. His reference to Dart additionally figures to work in his favor, particularly when noting Dart's mobility. Since Dart can run, he is extra prone to dump the ball off to Johnson when trying downfield, versus throwing to fellow rookie Cam Skattebo (whom he can out-pace). Fold within the matchup at New Orleans, and Johnson is giving top-15 TE fantasy enchantment. The Saints have allowed two scores to the place and two video games of 10 or extra fantasy factors to TEs for the reason that begin of 2025. Johnson is at the moment accessible in 97% deepest of ESPN fantasy leagues.
