The Trump administration's determination to slap a 50 per cent country-specific tariff on most Indian items, on high of current most favoured nation duties, has thrust India right into a strategic dilemma that might reshape its commerce, vitality, and diplomatic positioning.
“For New Delhi, the alternatives forward are stark – negotiate, retaliate, diversify markets, or commerce concessions comparable to ending purchases of Russian oil for tariff aid. Every choice carries a special mixture of positive aspects and dangers,” GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava mentioned.
He added that India would require structural reforms and aggressive commerce diplomacy to soak up the excessive tariffs and diversify the nation's exports to Europe, ASEAN, Africa, the Center East, and Latin America.
“Positive factors within the first two years would possibly get better solely USD 10-15 billion of the USD 50 billion misplaced,” he mentioned. If US tariffs would elevate shopper costs and unemployment in America, he mentioned, home political strain may pressure the Trump administration a lower to round 15 per cent for all international locations. “India's greatest position right here is to quietly spotlight the tariffs' value to American voters,” Srivastava mentioned. He added that in an period when financial energy is used as a weapon, survival is not about avoiding confrontation.
“It is about selecting the correct battles, anticipating the following transfer, and taking part in for the lengthy win,” he mentioned.
