In July 2025 alone, China shipped round $1 billion price of laptop chips to India. On high of that, billions extra in telephones and elements had been despatched to help electronics meeting throughout India.
Information launched by Beijing exhibits that Chinese language exports to India this 12 months are on observe to surpass final 12 months's file, with the worth of shipments to this point nearly matching the full for 2021.
Additionally Learn: China floods the world with low cost exports after Trump's tariffs
“China has carried out higher than anticipated within the first half,” JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s chief India economist Sajjid Chinoy advised Bloomberg Tv. “A few of that is the truth that China has very cleverly discovered different export markets, together with Europe, which has been a key hedge to slowing exports to the US.”
India-China commerce in numbers
India's reliance on Chinese language items has contributed to the nation's largest-ever commerce deficit with a single nation. In keeping with the Indian Embassy in Beijing, imports from China in 2024-25 totaled $113.46 billion, whereas Indian exports to China had been simply $14.25 billion, leaving a deficit of $99.21 billion. Over the previous decade, this imbalance has steadily widened:
- 2014-15: Commerce deficit $48.45 billion
- 2017-18: $63.05 billion
- 2021-22: $73.01 billion
- 2024-25: $99.21 billion
India's cumulative imports from China have grown from $60.41 billion in 2014-15 to $113.46 billion in 2024-25. Exports to China, in the meantime, have remained low and risky, hovering between $9 billion and $21 billion over the identical interval.
During the last 5 years, India's exports have largely been raw-material based mostly, iron ore, gentle naphtha, p-xylene, shrimps, and castor oil. Chinese language exports have more and more dominated Indian markets with electronics, equipment, private computer systems, monolithic built-in circuits, telecommunication tools, lithium-ion batteries, and fertilisers.
World commerce shifts amplify China's attain
The export surge comes amid Trump-era tariffs that curtailed China's entry to the US market. As per the Bloomberg report, regardless of excessive tariffs, Chinese language producers have expanded their presence in various markets, together with India, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
Exports to those areas are setting new information: India's purchases hit an all-time excessive in August 2025, shipments to Africa are on observe for an annual file, and gross sales to Southeast Asia have surpassed their pandemic-era peak.
China's international technique seems to be paying off.
“China has very cleverly discovered different export markets, together with Europe, which has been a key hedge to slowing exports to the US,” Chinoy famous. Bloomberg Economics analysts Chang Shu and David Qu level out that Beijing's means to pivot helps buffer in opposition to the mixed pressures of US tariffs, inner financial challenges, and an getting older inhabitants.
Commerce figures spotlight India's rising dependence
In keeping with The Observatory of Financial Complexity (OEC), India imported roughly $10.9 billion price of products from China in July 2025 alone, up 6.04% from the identical month final 12 months.
In response, Indian authorities have ramped up anti-dumping scrutiny. Over current weeks, 50 purposes for investigations into items from China and Vietnam have been filed, reflecting issues over low cost imports flooding home markets, as per Bloomberg citing sources.
India's file imports from China underscore a broader international commerce realignment. The nation advantages from the relocation of high-tech meeting, comparable to Apple iPhones, however stays closely depending on Chinese language elements and tooling.
The commerce deficit, approaching $100 billion, and continued inflow of low cost Chinese language items spotlight a fragile balancing act: India features from international provide chains however faces dangers from over-reliance on China.
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