On the subject of working again fantasy manufacturing, touchdowns are paramount.
Final season, 24% of the place's fantasy scoring got here from touchdowns. The highest eight working backs in PPR fantasy factors additionally comprised the place's high eight in touchdowns. And all however one of many place's single-game 30-point performances had been multi-touchdown efforts.
That stated, year-over-year landing manufacturing on the place may be notoriously troublesome to foretell. Twelve working backs scored double-digit touchdowns in 2023, however solely seven of them did so once more in 2024, with the dozen averaging 3.2 fewer touchdowns and 29.9 fewer PPR fantasy fantasy factors.
It is a class of prognostication, of analyzing participant abilities and bodily traits and, sure, even some guesswork. That is the place we're right here to assist, breaking down the place's more than likely sources of landing manufacturing. The next lists have in mind working backs' measurement, power, velocity, situational statistics and previous historical past.
Let's begin with the place's highest on this division.
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Our eight finest RB landing bets
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: He is each velocity demon and goal-line dynamo, main the league in explosive play price (15.7% of his carries went for 10-plus yards), whereas additionally inserting third in landing conversion price contained in the 3-yard line (72.2%, or 13 of 16). No working again has a better mixture of touchdown-generating abilities. — Cockcroft
At 5-foot-9, 202 kilos, Gibbs does not have the bodily profile of a basic goal-line again, however he can function in tight quarters, utilizing his lateral quickness to dart by way of creases of daylight, whereas dropping his pad degree on the doorstep of the top zone. Plus, along with his short-area burst, Gibbs can bounce the ball outdoors to slice by way of pursuit angles on the aim line or out within the open area. He's electrical with the ball in his arms. — Bowen
2. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: Williams lacks the sudden motion traits of an elite zone scheme runner, however along with his imaginative and prescient and get in touch with steadiness, he can discover the top zone at a excessive price. Williams has sufficient decrease physique wiggle to sift by way of site visitors, and his potential to bounce off defenders results in landing manufacturing. Williams is a constant and dependable fantasy starter. — Bowen
Solely three working backs had greater than Williams' 21 touchdowns in goal-to-go conditions the previous three seasons, and he transformed 40% of these tries into scores, a testomony to his dominant nature when in scoring place. — Cockcroft
3. Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: If not for his age and a pair of,529 profession touches, he'd rank greater, however Henry is pretty much as good a wager to steer the league in touchdowns as anybody. Inside 3 yards of the aim line, he led in touchdowns (22) and first downs over expectation (5.6) from 2022 to '24, and his seven scores from outdoors the crimson zone had been second to solely Saquon Barkley's 9. — Cockcroft
Nonetheless one the league's finest at age 31, Henry's 6-foot-2, 247-pound body and lower-body energy are each sport changers on the aim line. Henry runs behind his pads, which permits him to fall ahead on contact, whereas additionally forcing defenders to make some enterprise choices on the level of assault. An extended strider within the open area with a deadly stiff arm to drop defensive backs into the turf, Henry can hit house runs, too. Time to strike up the band when Henry will get rolling. — Bowen
4. Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers: I felt that Jacobs was one of many high runners within the low crimson zone final 12 months primarily based on the tape. He can play with each energy and foot quickness inside a cellphone sales space, and he has thunder in his pads. A straightforward match for the Packers' goal-line run schemes, Jacobs' bodily play type creates scoring alternatives in your lineup. — Bowen
Solely two gamers with at the least 5 such makes an attempt had better than Jacobs' 71% landing conversion price inside the 3-yard line final season. — Cockcroft
5. James Prepare dinner, Buffalo Payments: He is as more likely to break off an extended acquire for a rating as anybody, his seven touchdowns from outdoors the crimson zone the previous three seasons matching Henry's second-place quantity (Barkley led), however Prepare dinner was additionally a superb 5-of-8 changing his goal-line carries final season, swiftly adapting to the position he inherited to start 2024. — Cockcroft
Prepare dinner's 16 dashing scores final season tied for the league lead with Henry. He is a decisive runner with little wasted motion on the aim line. Decide a north/south working lane to speed up by way of or assault the perimeter. It is fast, now. And a poor defensive angle goes to result in six factors. Plus, Prepare dinner can rating from anyplace on the sector, ripping off explosive performs as a runner. — Bowen
6. David Montgomery, Lions: A downhill runner with wonderful contact steadiness and decrease physique management, Montgomery is a hammer on the aim line. Whether or not Montgomery is working from shotgun units or I-back alignments, he retains his shoulders sq. and makes use of a fast soar minimize to get out of bother. A part of the perfect backfield combo within the league with Gibbs, Montgomery will get his touches in scoring place, making him a stable RB2/Flex within the lineup. — Bowen
It is exceptional that the Lions have two of the sport's finest working backs at discovering the top zone, however right here we're. Montgomery was 18 of 29 (62%) changing for scores inside the three from 2022 to '24. — Cockcroft
7. Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: I cherished this signing for the Texans a 12 months in the past, as Mixon has been one of many league's most quietly reliant in scoring place, his 16 scores inside the three from 2022 to '24 tied for sixth most within the league. — Cockcroft
A savvy runner in scoring place, Mixon blends persistence, imaginative and prescient and energy on goal-line performs. Mixon has the leg power to push the pile on inside schemes, and he'll assault the perimeter on outdoors zone ideas. Plus, Mixon can redirect shortly to evade defenders and create a brand new path to the top zone. — Bowen
8. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Sudden and elusive, with a inventive component to his sport, Robinson is a dynamic runner in scoring place. Robinson can hit the accelerator on perimeter schemes, play with power on a downhill observe and his potential to vary instructions is high-level. Robinson has all of the traits of a difference-maker with huge play potential. — Bowen
Robinson is as more likely to break off a long term for a rating as anybody, as Subsequent Gen Stats has clocked his common velocity at 13.4 mph throughout his two NFL seasons, second-fastest amongst working backs with at the least 100 carries. — Cockcroft
4 RB landing sleepers, and the teammates they impression
1. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars: Bigsby has the profile to function on the aim line in Jacksonville, which may take away scoring alternatives from Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten. Bigsby scored seven touchdowns in 2024, utilizing his 5-foot-11, 215-pound body to run by way of contact, and he has extra big-play juice than you assume. There's open-field potential right here, too. — Bowen
Bigsby is 5-for-9 changing his possibilities contained in the 3-yard line, and he has compelled a missed deal with on three of these performs. He ought to start 2025 because the Jaguars' first alternative when in scoring place. — Cockcroft
2. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: Early fantasy drafters appear to like rookie working again TreVeyon Henderson, however Stevenson's observe file as one of many league's extra dependable goal-line backs may make him one in all 2025's high landing vultures. Stevenson is 9-of-17 changing contained in the three from 2022-24. — Cockcroft
There was lots of offseason hype for the Patriots' rookie RB, given his versatility and pass-catching ability set. However remember about Stevenson right here. At 6-foot, 207 kilos, he's constructed for the aim line: energy and pad degree to get six. — Bowen
3. J.Okay. Dobbins, Denver Broncos: Dobbins appeared extra explosive on tape in 2024, which translated to some big-play landing runs. On the aim line, he can observe the street map to the top zone on hole schemes. Bodily with the ball. RJ Harvey figures to be the lead runner in Sean Payton's backfield, however Dobbins has the traits to steal touches on the aim line. — Bowen
Dobbins' 57% missed tackles compelled price (4 on seven performs) contained in the 3-yard line from 2022-24 led the league, and he scored seven instances on 18 goal-to-go performs. He may very well be a possible headache for Harvey's managers. — Cockcroft
4. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I am as pro-Bucky Irving as anybody coming into 2025, however White scored 9 instances on 12 tries inside the three the previous three seasons, successful price the group may be unable to miss. — Cockcroft
Irving ought to enter camp because the No.1 in Tampa, however White will nonetheless get his touches. He has the physique management to slither by way of cracks of daylight when the sector shrinks close to the aim line. — Bowen
Different RBs worthy of point out
Gus Edwards was 19 of 39 (second-best 49%) changing his goal-to-go carries into touchdowns from 2022-24, portray the image of a short-yardage again for any group that considers signing him within the coming weeks. … Ezekiel Elliott, at the moment a member of the Los Angeles Chargers' follow squad, is 16 of 38 (second-best 42%) scoring in goal-to-go conditions over the previous three seasons.
