Mike Clay
Editor's notice: As you prepare for fantasy football 2025, be sure you get loads of apply through the use of our Mock Draft Lobby and maintain monitor of Mike Clay's updated projections all through the season.
Soccer statistics are extraordinarily arduous to foretell, however historical past continues to point out that projecting landing regression to the imply is considerably simpler than you may think.
Over the previous decade, 96% of gamers who scored 14 or extra touchdowns scored fewer the season after (47 of 49).
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 variations of this yearly report present overwhelming proof.
Of the 130 names in these experiences, 117 scored fewer touchdowns the next season. That is an absurd hit fee of 90%. Final season, the report appropriately recognized 14 of 17 TD dippers, with Kyren Williams (15 to 16), De'Von Achane (11 to 12) and Jordan Addison (10 to 10) the lone exceptions. The 17 gamers who averaged 13.0 TDs in 2023 have been projected for 7.9 TDs in 2024 and ended up averaging 7.2.
That is removed from stunning, as we have realized through the years that gamers merely can not maintain extraordinarily excessive scoring charges. It isn't a knock on their expertise. Scoring is just extra about alternative.
Throughout the 2011 to 2023 seasons, there have been 256 cases wherein a participant totaled 10 or extra touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of these 256, a whopping 208 (81.3%) scored fewer touchdowns the following season, and the common change was a lower of 4.9. Of the 61 cases wherein a participant scored 14-plus touchdowns, 58 (95.1%) scored fewer instances the following yr (common dip of 8.6). The one exceptions have been Todd Gurley III (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018), Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014) and the aforementioned Williams.
Each participant apart from Williams who scored 14-plus TDs in 2023 discovered the top zone much less typically in 2024: Raheem Mostert (21 to 2), Christian McCaffrey (21 to 0), Jalen Hurts (15 to 14), Josh Allen (15 to 13) and CeeDee Lamb (14 to six).
If that is not sufficient to assist us predict landing regression, we even have anticipated touchdowns (xTD), which is a statistic that weighs each carry/goal and converts the info into one quantity that signifies a participant's scoring alternative. The quantity is what number of touchdowns a league-average participant would've scored with the very same alternative because the participant proven.
A cautious examination of every of the next participant's 2024 utilization exhibits that we must always count on a drop in scoring manufacturing this season.
Be sure you additionally take a look at the checklist of gamers who will rating extra touchdowns this season.
Observe that this examine is proscribed to regular-season speeding and receiving knowledge.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
2024 TDs: 20
2025 Projected TDs: 14
Gibbs exploded for 20 touchdowns final season, and if he reaches that mark once more, he'll be solely the sixth participant in NFL historical past to attain that feat. Gibbs was considerably above his anticipated TD complete (13.2) and effectively behind David Montgomery in carries contained in the 5-yard line when each have been lively (17 to 11). Even in a terrific Detroit offense, a dip is probably going.
James Cook dinner, RB, Buffalo Payments
2024 TDs: 18
2025 Projected TDs: 13
The hole between Cook dinner's precise (18) and anticipated (11.0) TD complete was the widest within the NFL final season. His 18 scores doubled his complete throughout his first two NFL seasons (9) and the big spike got here regardless of enjoying in a three-headed committee that restricted his carries (nineteenth amongst RBs), targets (thirty fourth), touches (twenty second) and carries contained in the 5-yard line (tenth). Barring a task change, he's a serious lengthy shot to return near 18 in 2025.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
2024 TDs: 17
2025 Projected TDs: 12
Chase led the NFL in finish zone targets (19), routes, complete targets, receptions, yards and TD receptions final season. He is an excellent wager to rank close to the highest of the league in all of these classes once more in 2025, however the hole between his scoring and anticipated TD complete (12.2) suggests a return to earth. After scoring 13 TDs as a rookie in 2021, Chase scored a complete of 16 TDs throughout the 2022 and '23 seasons.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
2024 TDs: 13
2025 Projected TDs: 7
McLaurin hauled in 13 TDs (second most amongst WRs) in 2024 after totaling 24 throughout his first 5 seasons. He dealt with 14 finish zone targets (tied for eighth within the league) and caught a league-high 10 of them, which is spectacular but in addition unsustainable. McLaurin has completed precisely nineteenth on the place in targets three seasons in a row and has by no means completed greater than fifteenth in catches. He'll want extra quantity to repeat his large TD complete.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
2024 TDs: 11
2025 Projected TDs: 7
Andrews completed first in TDs however twentieth in targets amongst tight ends final season. The veteran caught 9 of his 10 finish zone targets, almost doubling his profession catch fee (47%) on these performs. No different participant with greater than three finish zone targets had a catch fee above 71%. Pretty much as good as Andrews has been in his profession, he is by no means been so TD dependent (his 16.2% TD fee was approach above his prior profession fee of seven.1%) and a return to earth in 2025 is a close to lock.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins
2024 TDs: 9
2025 Projected TDs: 5
I am grouping this duo collectively as a result of each had the identical variety of touchdowns (9), identical anticipated TD complete (4.6) and have the identical 2025 TD projection (5). Bateman (4.6 xTD) ranked exterior the highest 55 extensive receivers in targets and receptions, however completed eighth in TDs due to Lamar Jackson's career-high 41 TD passes. That is after Bateman totaled 4 TDs (4.9 xTD) throughout his first three NFL seasons.
Westbrook-Ikhine's efficiency was much more weird and considerably historic. It was solely the thirteenth occasion in league historical past (and the primary since 1974) of a participant catching nine-plus TDs on 32 or fewer receptions. Westbrook-Ikhine's math-breaking season included a stretch wherein he scored eight TDs in as many video games regardless of totaling 20 touches throughout the span. Regardless of the transfer from Tennessee to a greater Miami offense, a giant TD dip is a close to lock.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 TDs: 8
2025 Projected TDs: 4
Smith loved a profession yr with the Dolphins in 2024, ending prime 5 amongst tight ends in targets, catches, yards and, after all, touchdowns. Nevertheless, Smith's 5.2 xTD and 6 finish zone targets each ranked eighth or decrease on the place. The journeyman has a historical past of regressing sharply from unsustainable TD manufacturing. After scoring eight TDs on 41 catches with the Tennessee Titans in 2020 (what's within the water in Tennessee?!), he adopted with 4 TDs on 105 receptions over the next three seasons.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 TDs: 7
2025 Projected TDs: 3
Freiermuth ranked fourth amongst tight ends in TDs (seven) however twentieth in anticipated TDs (3.1) final season. The anticipated TD complete aligned intently with the place he was when he scored two TDs in each 2022 and 2023. He dealt with a career-low two finish zone targets and hasn't had greater than 5 in a season since 2021. Particularly with Smith and DK Metcalf now within the combine, Freiermuth may see his TD complete minimize in half this season.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Inexperienced Bay Packers
2024 TDs: 7
2025 Projected TDs: 4
After scoring two TDs on 40 targets as a rookie in 2023, Kraft exploded for seven scores on 70 targets in 2024 regardless of his xTD bettering solely barely (from 1.0 to 2.8). Kraft ranked precisely 18th amongst tight ends in goal share, targets and receptions, however he completed fourth in TDs. Kraft is clearly a fairly good participant (he led the place in RAC in each seasons), however he'll want extra work close to the aim line (three profession finish zone targets) so as to come near his 2024 TD complete.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts
2024 TDs: 7
2025 Projected TDs: 2
Pierce had one of many greatest outlier showings of 2024. After posting 41-593-2 and 32-514-2 receiving traces throughout his first two NFL seasons, Pierce exploded for a 37-824-7 line in 2024. The leap got here regardless of related utilization. Pierce's increase was a product of unsustainable conversion charges on each lengthy balls (three 40-plus TDs) and finish zone targets (4-of-7). He merely would not see sufficient work to permit large TD totals.
Others
