Making robust lineup choices every week may be the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of. If you're torn between two related gamers and easily do not know who to start out, begin the participant with the superior matchup.
Ah, however precisely how does one decide the most effective (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings present a schedule unbiased technique to judge positional matchups every week, rating all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 talent positions (quarterback, working again, large receiver and tight finish). As a substitute of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate factors allowed knowledge to point out how every protection fared relative to the problem of the schedule it has confronted. This supplies a fairer strategy to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
For the primary three weeks, these rankings are solely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I think about that matchup, although 2024 full-season knowledge is supplied to present you one other snapshot into the power of that individual matchup.
Adjusted fantasy factors allowed (Adj. FPA) displays how far above or under gamers' weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A constructive quantity signifies that the matchup is favorable. A detrimental quantity means it's unfavorable. Moreover, do not forget that groups usually use a number of working backs and large receivers in a sport, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a workforce's personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings formulation. Not each favorable matchup needs to be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup prevented. In order for you my — and ESPN fantasy employees's — most full supply for whom to start out and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups spotlight: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Dallas Cowboys). Contemplating the challenges his first two matchups offered — a prime-time sport towards the Minnesota Vikings and a much-ballyhooed assembly with the Detroit Lions — Williams' 41.18 fantasy factors had been a lot good begin. Underneath Ben Johnson's tutelage, Williams has reversed his 2024 development of sluggish begins to video games, going from one of many worst to the league's greatest first-quarter quarterback (going by Whole QBR), and he has proven good mobility with 14.5 of these factors on speeding performs. It is a good basis as Williams attracts one among his most favorable matchups in Week 3. The opposing Cowboys convey little in the best way of move rush (Twentieth-ranked move rush win charge) and have struggled mightily to defend the deep ball (315 yards and three touchdowns on throws at the least 20 yards downfield, each NFL worsts).
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Matchup to keep away from: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Denver Broncos). The Chargers have made him a much bigger a part of their sport plan, and for the primary time in his profession, he has handed for a number of touchdowns with out an interception whereas additionally speeding for at the least 30 yards in back-to-back video games. Herbert's fantasy inventory is on the rise, however it is a week to fade him. The Broncos, regardless of their Week 2 stinker in Indianapolis, have nonetheless held opposing quarterbacks to the third-lowest completion proportion (56.5%), third-worst Whole QBR (41.7) and seventh-worst charge of passing yards per dropback (5.2). They entered 2025 regarded one of many hardest defenses towards the move, and one dangerous week towards Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts should not dramatically change that.
Operating backs
Matchups spotlight: Javonte Williams, Cowboys (at Bears). He is off to a surprising begin, with 45.4 fantasy factors (third amongst RBs) in addition to 31 speeding yards over anticipated, per Subsequent Gen Stats, whereas enjoying 75% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps. Williams did so partially by capitalizing upon a particularly favorable Week 2 matchup towards the New York Giants, and this week is equally smooth towards a Bears protection that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy factors to the place (57.2). The Bears surrendered 52 factors and 511 complete yards to the Lions in Week 2, and so they may play Week 3 with out LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) and CBs Jaylon Johnson (groin) and Kyler Gordon (hamstring).
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Matchup to keep away from: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles). Although he is nonetheless seeing the heavy, fantasy-friendly workloads he did in the course of the previous two seasons — his 75% snap charge and 17.5 carries per sport are inside vary of his 85% (wholesome video games solely) and 19.4 marks from 2023-24 — Williams seems to have much less explosiveness by two video games. Per Subsequent Gen Stats, his common pace and 15 mph run charges are each down (11.5 mph and 11.4%). That is a priority with a matchup towards the Eagles up subsequent after the defending champions held Chiefs working backs to 55 yards on 19 carries in Week 2.
Large receivers
Matchups spotlight: DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers (at New England Patriots). CB Christian Gonzalez‘s hamstring damage has been significantly problematic for the Patriots' protection, which by two weeks has already seen 4 large receivers rating 13 or extra fantasy factors. Alex Austin and Marcus Jones have struggled in Gonzalez's absence, surrendering 35.3 factors on 17 targets as the closest defender. Metcalf, who hasn't but seen the lofty goal share initially anticipated working with Aaron Rodgers, ought to discover loads of alternatives this week. Even when Gonzalez is wholesome sufficient to return, it is possible he won't be in peak kind.
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Matchup to keep away from: Chris Olave, Saints (at Seahawks). He is actually seeing the targets he must succeed — his 31% share is tenth greatest within the league — however he has one of many shakier quarterbacks throwing him the soccer in Spencer Rattler, and Olave has needed to battle Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele for seems in purple zone conditions (two targets and no scores to the others' 5 targets and two scores). The Seahawks, in the meantime, have been one of many stingiest defenses towards large receivers so far, largely due to the efficiency of CB Josh Jobe, who additionally completed the 2024 season on a excessive word. In his previous six video games, Jobe has surrendered solely 20.8 fantasy factors on 23 targets as the closest defender, per Subsequent Gen Stats.
Tight ends
Matchups spotlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina Panthers). We'd perceive in case you're hesitant to belief him after three consecutive disappointing campaigns getting into this one, however Pitts has seen extra seems by two video games, as evidenced by his career-best 21% goal share. That meshes effectively with this supremely favorable matchup, because the Panthers had been the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted protection towards the place final season, and so they've allowed the third-most fantasy factors to tight ends by two weeks this season.
Matchup to keep away from: Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs. Lions). Gradual begins are nothing new to him, as he has averaged 10.5 fantasy factors in September in his profession, in comparison with 12.9 the remainder of the season. 4 of his six worst single-game level totals have occurred in September of both this or final season. Worse, Andrews has managed solely 2.9 factors on 4 targets complete this season regardless of the absence of fellow pass-catching tight finish Isaiah Possible (foot). The Lions, sadly, present Andrews little respite from his stoop, having restricted opposing tight ends to the fewest fantasy factors per sport (8.9) and third-worst catch charge (64.9%) because the starting of final season.
