Mike Clay
A brand new fantasy soccer season is upon us and — in case you tuned out after February's Tremendous Bowl — you will have a number of catching as much as do.
The 2025 NFL offseason had a flurry of motion that may convey large modifications to this season's fantasy panorama. There is a new wave of rookie operating backs (led by potential first-round fantasy choose Ashton Jeanty), Davante Adams teamed up with Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles, Derek Carr all of the sudden retired and several other notable quarterbacks discovered new houses, together with Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.
This preliminary installment of The Playbook takes a radical, position-by-position have a look at that panorama and presents recommendation and data that may provide help to make sound selections on draft day. The main target might be on average-sized, redraft leagues, however I did not overlook the extra nuanced leagues, together with dynasty, keeper, superflex and finest ball, which quickly might be lined in Half 2 of The Playbook.
The Playbook is a method piece for freshmen and superior gamers that exhibits you ways I apply all that I've realized throughout my a few years as a fantasy participant and an offseason of analysis. I initially printed a model of this sequence in 2021, however it's a residing piece that I replace considerably annually.
State of the Positions
Quarterback: The Massive 4
Final season, Lamar Jackson (25.3), Josh Allen (22.3), Jalen Hurts (21.0) and Jayden Daniels (20.9) completed among the many prime 6 quarterbacks in fantasy factors per recreation. These 4 are the clear-cut prime 4 fantasy QBs in 2025, and my purpose on draft day is to amass any one of many 4. The rationale these 4 make the lower and Joe Burrow (21.9) and Baker Mayfield (21.5) don't is easy: dashing potential. Burrow and Mayfield mixed for 579 yards and 5 TDs on the bottom final season; the “Massive 4” averaged 741.8 yards and 9 TDs (not one of the 4 had fewer than 531 yards or six TDs).
The quarterback place has developed to the place large passing numbers aren't sufficient — these guys should be nothing wanting elite in that class to maintain up with the true dual-threat quarterbacks. Burrow and Mayfield run a bit, however each wanted 40-plus passing TDs to hold with the Massive 4 final season. Is that repeatable? Contemplating solely seven QBs in league historical past have reached 40 passing TDs greater than as soon as (none has performed it greater than thrice), it appears unlikely.
Burrow and Mayfield nonetheless have excellent outlooks, so although I do not view them as elite, they're nonetheless strong, midrange QB1 choices. They usually're not alone. Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy are additionally in that dialog, together with further fringe QB1s corresponding to Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and dual-threat Justin Fields … oh, and breakout candidates corresponding to Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Cameron Ward and Michael Penix Jr.
These gamers aren't fairly the identical difference-makers because the Massive 4, which is why, in contrast to in some years, I am keen to spend up on a quarterback in 2025. “Spending up” on this case will typically value a third- or fourth-round choose, which is not as costly as years in the past when famous person QBs like Allen can be a first-round choose in all fantasy leagues. The business has wised up in that division, and informal drafters have caught on as nicely, which is why Allen, Jackson, Daniels and Hurts are palatable at their current draft cost.
Takeaway: There's a notable drop-off after the Massive 4, so in case you miss out on one in every of them, do not be afraid to attend fairly some time earlier than addressing your quarterback slot.
Working again: Spend up or go younger?
Huge receiver has turn into the precedence place in fantasy soccer, however hitting on affect operating backs stays extraordinarily essential. As talked about earlier, the deep 2025 rookie RB class is prone to make a large affect this season, and we additionally may see the top for a number of getting old backs.
The common age of a top-15 fantasy operating again (by scoring) the previous 5 years is 25.1, as excessive as 25.9 in 2022 and as little as 24.1 in 2020. Solely seven of the 75 RBs (9.3%) have been 29 or older to start the season; 9, if we embody 28-year-olds. Though greater than half of the exceptions got here in 2024 (Derrick Henry fourth, Alvin Kamara ninth, James Conner eleventh, Aaron Jones Sr. fifteenth), it is attainable (perhaps possible) we see a return to earth in 2025.
Why are these age stats notable? Christian McCaffrey (29), Joe Mixon (29), Conner (30), Henry (31), Kamara (30) and Jones (30) are all being chosen within the early rounds, and every is getting into his age-29 season or older. And that does not embody Saquon Barkley, who's 28 years outdated and coming off a season by which he racked up 482 touches throughout 20 video games, together with the playoffs.
Can we nonetheless rely on these veterans who've confirmed elite/dependable over the previous half-decade and stay positioned for large workloads, or ought to we anticipate a regression in manufacturing, and lean into youth? Final season, focusing on younger backs was principally profitable, as Bijan Robinson (now 23 years outdated), Kyren Williams (25), Jahmyr Gibbs (23), James Prepare dinner (25) and De'Von Achane (23) labored out nice. This 12 months, we will add Bucky Irving (23), Kenneth Walker III (24), Chase Brown (25) and Breece Corridor (24) to the listing of 25-and-younger backs who may leap into, (or again into) the weekly RB1 combine … and that does not embody a loaded rookie class led by Jeanty (21), Omarion Hampton (22), Quinshon Judkins (21), RJ Harvey (24), TreVeyon Henderson (22), Kaleb Johnson (22) and Cam Skattebo (23), all who may play sizable roles instantly.
Many of those younger backs are viable draft targets in case you subscribe to some model of the “Zero RB” technique, a drafting philosophy that includes not deciding on a operating again early, as a substitute loading up on extensive receivers (and maybe an elite tight finish or quarterback) within the first a number of rounds. Then, when prime backs inevitably get injured, your opponents' rosters worsen and you need to use your stashed backs and waivers to fill your RB slots, providing you with an edge on the sphere.
It is a really useful technique in case you're set on avoiding the older/overworked backs and as a substitute centered on eyeing younger backs within the center rounds. However in case you spend none or one in every of your first 5 or so picks on a operating again, you possible will enter the season with an uneasy feeling at RB2. With the well-documented excessive damage charge on the place, it is greater than possible you may fill that spot with a middle-round choose within the brief time period and a bench stash or waiver add later within the 12 months.
Takeaway: Take an elite again early in case you can, however do not push it if the worth is not there. Be happy to assault the opposite positions early and throw darts on values and rising-star RBs within the center rounds.
Huge receiver: Just a few superstars and 1,000,000 WR3s
Huge receiver has developed right into a little bit of a top-heavy place, with a brief listing that features Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers and Amon-Ra St. Brown main the best way. Every receiver is assured a hefty goal share and is prone to value you a first-round choose in 12-team leagues.
Issues get trickier from there. Groups are using three-plus extensive receiver units at a hefty charge (73% of go performs in 2024) as a result of the place is so sturdy throughout the league, they usually're spreading the ball round to appease the expertise. There are different respectable choices on your WR1 slot, together with Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown and Drake London, but it surely will get a bit dangerous after that as a result of there's not a large drop-off on the place from that time.
Tyreek Hill looks as if an excellent post-hype goal, however will he rebound at age 31? How will Davante Adams fare at 32 years outdated in Los Angeles? Rashee Rice is just not solely going through league self-discipline but additionally, is there sufficient room for him and Xavier Worthy to thrive in Kansas Metropolis? How will Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp jell with Sam Darnold in Seattle? Will Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze make a 12 months 2 leap? Will Mike Evans (32) and Chris Godwin (damage concern) have one other large season? Can Garrett Wilson attain his ceiling with Justin Fields below heart? How will DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers fare collectively? Can Jerry Jeudy overcome the Browns' QB questions?
There are a number of powerful questions in that paragraph, and that is solely a partial listing of gamers to contemplate within the early-to-middle rounds. The excellent news is that every one of those receivers are anticipated to offer starting-caliber manufacturing, however they're all very shut in worth, which suggests you'll be able to monitor your draft's development and reap the benefits of some very giant tiers of comparable gamers. There's a lot uncertainty and depth that you will be spending late-round picks on gamers who may simply be within the WR3 combine as early as Week 1. For instance, veterans Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr. and potential breakout gamers Matthew Golden, Ricky Pearsall and Keon Coleman might be had after Spherical 7 in lots of 12-team leagues.
With extensive receiver so deep, how will we kind by way of the congestion and correctly determine which gamers to focus on?
Over the previous 5 seasons, 43 of the highest 50 extensive receivers (86%) in fantasy factors per recreation have been chosen within the first three rounds of the NFL draft (23 have been first-rounders and solely two have been undrafted). Throughout that span, 121 of the 150 top-30 WR fantasy campaigns (80%) have come from a participant chosen throughout the first three rounds. Just one (Jauan Jennings in 2024) got here from a participant chosen in Spherical 6 or 7.
Solely 32 of the 324 extensive receivers (10%) picked within the NFL draft from 2015 to 2024 completed as a top-35 fantasy WR as a rookie (six completed within the prime 12). Of these 32, solely three (Nacua, Hill, St. Brown) have been picked after the third spherical. Exceptions occur, however historical past tells us to keep away from reaching on gamers with low hit charges and deal with a participant's previous manufacturing.
We must also deal with second-year receivers who have been good as rookies. Since 2000, 30 of 42 WRs (71%) who completed within the prime 30 in fantasy factors as a rookie repeated as a top-30 WR in 12 months 2. With accidents so outstanding within the NFL, that could be a shockingly excessive hit charge and value our consideration. Final season, Harrison, Thomas, Nabers and Ladd McConkey have been top-30 finishers, with Worthy (thirty third) simply lacking the lower. Historical past says most of them will repeat their success in 2025.
Then again, I did some analysis to find out if it was worthwhile to focus on post-hype, second-year receivers who struggled as rookies. It relies on simply how a lot they struggled. The magic quantity appears to be 90, as in, if a large receiver didn't end within the prime 90 on the place in fantasy factors as a rookie, you'll be able to all however throw within the towel.
Fifty of the 133 WRs (38%) taken in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL draft from 2014 to 2023 completed worse than ninetieth in extensive receiver fantasy factors as rookies. Solely 5 of the 50 had a single top-30 season: Nelson Agholor, Jameson Williams, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams and DJ Chark Jr. None managed a top-10 marketing campaign, and solely Mike Williams and Chark cracked the highest 20. Mike Williams is the largest success story from the group up to now, and it took him till his fifth season to crack the highest 30. So long as you are considerably competent as a rookie, you will have a shot at success. Should you're all however a nonfactor, you are possible a misplaced trigger.
We noticed an instance of this final season, as this similar column warned you to keep away from 2023 Spherical 1-3 WRs who struggled as rookies. Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Jonathan Mingo, Tre Tucker and Marvin Mims Jr. have been all outdoors the highest 80 as rookies and, although Tillman flashed for a minute, one of the best end by the group in 2024 was Mims' 57th.
So, who does this examine recommend we keep away from in 2025? Adonai Mitchell (112th), Luke McCaffrey (127th), Ja'Lynn Polk (129th), Jermaine Burton (154th), Malachi Corley (a hundred and ninetieth) and Roman Wilson (216th) comprise the listing of 2024 receivers taken in Rounds 1-3 who completed their rookie season outdoors the highest 90 receivers in fantasy factors. Historical past tells us that, although perhaps one in every of these guys will make a leap, it is not possible, so we should not make investments a lot in them. As an alternative, we will deal with high-potential rookies or post-hype, second-year gamers who at the very least confirmed some flashes in 12 months 1. Gamers who match that invoice embody Thomas, Nabers, McConkey, Harrison, Worthy, Odunze, Coleman, Pearsall, Jalen McMillan and Xavier Legette.
Takeaway: Ideally, you are grabbing a star receiver early, however the place is deep with veteran expertise and a robust corps of proficient younger stars, so there is not any must power issues. On the subject of early-career sleepers and breakouts, historical past exhibits that draft place issues. NFL scouts do a reasonably good job of figuring out the high-ceiling guys, so, for essentially the most half, belief their work.
Tight finish: A great 12 months to spend up
Annually, it looks as if tight finish will lastly be a deep place filled with viable starters … and annually, the place lets us down. This season, I like to recommend attacking the place comparatively early, even perhaps spending an early choose on Brock Bowers or Trey McBride.
The highest two scoring tight ends from 2024 weren't solely good at their place, however they have been good when stacked up in opposition to prime extensive receivers (if we mix the 2 positions, Bowers ranked ninth in factors and McBride twelfth). That is greater than sufficient justification to contemplate the tight ends within the second or third spherical of your draft.
The one factor stopping me from pouncing on both is George Kittle's availability a spherical or two later (Kittle's 15.8 PPG final season was higher than Bowers' 15.5 and McBride's 15.6). And, if I miss on any of these three, Sam LaPorta within the sixth-round vary can also be palatable, and maybe T.J. Hockenson a spherical later.
After that? Main questions. David Njoku has QB considerations, Travis Kelce, 35, has extra goal competitors, Mark Andrews noticed an enormous goal dip final season, Evan Engram is with Denver, Jonnu Smith was traded to Pittsburgh, which already has Pat Freiermuth, Dallas Goedert (who additionally has sturdiness considerations) has been the topic of commerce rumors, and Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts have not lived as much as their first-round expectations.
I like to recommend avoiding that mess. If not, there's not a lot sense in prioritizing the place early in your draft, particularly as a result of I did not point out different, equally valued tight ends corresponding to Tucker Kraft and rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.
Takeaway: That is the 12 months to prioritize touchdown an elite tight finish. Should you miss out on the highest tier or two, it is a number of the identical, so there's not a lot sense in drafting one till the middle-to-late rounds.
D/ST: Identical as regular
Should you're not streamin', you are not strivin'. Or one thing like that. You understand how you barely modify expectations on your offensive starters primarily based on the defensive matchup? That logic ought to be utilized to your D/ST selections. It is extra in regards to the offense than the protection. Stream defenses in plus matchups and revenue.
Kicker: Ditto
Daniel Carlson completed as fantasy's prime kicker in 2021 and 2022. Did that persuade you to succeed in for him a bit in your 2023 draft? In that case, you had with fantasy's No. 24 kicker. Earlier than Carlson's streak, the final No. 1-scoring kicker to complete within the prime 10 the next season was Matt Bryant in 2017. Brandon Aubrey (a top-2 scorer every of the previous two seasons) cannot be trusted, nor can reigning No. 1 fantasy kicker Chris Boswell, whose previous 5 season finishes are first, seventeenth, thirty first, fourth and twenty fifth. Do not draft a kicker earlier than the ultimate spherical. In reality, do not choose one until pressured to (you'll be able to at all times add one simply previous to Week 1 kickoff).
Draft technique
You must have a reasonably good really feel for the 2025 fantasy soccer participant pool, so let's perform a little housecleaning earlier than we head off to the draft room.
Early rounds
Outdoors of “give me an excellent sleeper,” the query I am requested most frequently is, “What ought to I do with my first choose?”
I already mentioned some sleeper methods, so let's deal with the latter. Prior to now, operating backs dominated the primary spherical, with a number of extensive receivers and, at occasions, even quarterbacks part of the dialog. Nonetheless, the mix of the excessive damage charge at operating again, the depth at quarterback and the constant manufacturing of some elite receivers has closed the hole over the previous decade. Huge receiver is usually the popular and most secure place in Spherical 1, with some subscribing to a model of the aforementioned “Zero RB” technique.
So, do you comply with the development and keep away from RBs early or achieve an edge by stacking a pair of RB1s along with your first two picks? It considerably relies on the place you are drafting within the first spherical, however one of the best ways to maximise your lineup would require flexibility and fast pondering.
When you have the primary choose this 12 months, the precise reply is to pick out Chase. Will he repeat his historic 2024 marketing campaign? In all probability not, however he nonetheless can be nicely price that price ticket. After Chase, I am going with Robinson, but it surely's positively seller's alternative at this level. WRs Jefferson, Lamb, Nacua, Nabers and St. Brown are glorious targets, as are RBs Barkley, Gibbs, McCaffrey and maybe Achane and Jeanty. This is not at all times the case, however there is not any fallacious reply to “RB or WR within the first spherical?” this 12 months. Elite, high-volume backs are so exhausting to seek out, however extensive receiver arguably dries up even faster this 12 months, which makes the highest choices extra interesting.
As for selecting a draft slot (in case you get the selection), purpose for the earliest choose, and that applies this 12 months, too. I can draft an elite participant with my first choose and nonetheless land one other pair of stars on the Spherical 2/3 flip. That listing of gamers contains Kyren Williams, Prepare dinner, Bowers, McBride, London, Tee Higgins and McConkey. I will take that each time, particularly as a result of the later levels of the third spherical aren't fairly as interesting.
Center rounds
That covers the primary few rounds, however what about the remaining? Throughout my draft, I am protecting monitor of whom I've picked and which positions want filling, however I am by no means passing on an apparent worth, even when it isn't a place of want. Not often do I full a draft by which there wasn't a participant who plummeted nicely past his ADP, and I anxiously awaited my alternative to pounce. (How brutal is it when that participant is chosen proper earlier than you are on the clock?!?)
Passing on worth is an apparent recipe for catastrophe over the long run, however many do it. There are at all times gamers — assume peak Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Derrick Mason, Pierre Garcon, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman — who persistently fell too far in drafts and sometimes proved strong values. These gamers aren't new or younger or thrilling, however I've at all times feasted on them. You do not want a house run with each choose to win the title. It's essential attain the playoffs first and, from there, you want a reliable lineup and a few luck. To attain each, having a few dependable starters (corresponding to Courtland Sutton and Jakobi Meyers) is essential.
This is one thing else to consider: We do not totally acknowledge as an business how completely different our lineups look within the playoffs than getting into Week 1. I can recall a championship-winning workforce in an FSGA business league that included ZERO operating backs that I drafted. And that is why focusing an excessive amount of on filling out an ideal lineup on draft day is not as essential as accumulating one of the best expertise attainable. The place is the road? You will realize it once you see it (aka when guys corresponding to Sutton and Meyers are staring you within the face).
Name me a value-based drafter. Name me conservative. I do not care. I am pleased so long as you'll be able to't name me somebody who's giving an edge to my opponents.
The underside line: On the subject of your fantasy soccer draft, know your league settings, have an excellent set of rankings/tiers, pay attention to ADP and do not go on apparent values. In 2025, I am not sweating operating again vs. extensive receiver within the first couple of rounds. I am selecting one of the best out there pair of gamers with these first two picks (two RBs or two WRs is ok if the board requires it) after which the door opens in any respect 4 positions, whether or not it is loading up at RB and WR, grabbing a “Massive 4” quarterback or pouncing on an elite tight finish corresponding to Bowers, McBride or maybe Kittle. As soon as your beginning lineup appears to be like good, deal with values and potential league-winning gamers, utilizing the above methods to determine one of the best targets. When all is alleged and performed (and assuming you proceed to handle your workforce all through the season), you may be well-positioned for a run at your league championship.
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