Sunday's early afternoon slate noticed a brand new NFL MVP favourite emerge and the reigning MVP falter — each inside the AFC East.
The New England Patriots prolonged their successful streak to seven video games with a 28-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coming into the competition as 2.5-point underdogs, the Pats improved to 6-1 in opposition to the unfold since Week 4, the very best ATS report within the NFL over that span.
Through the sport, QB Drake Maye — who threw for 270 yards, two touchdowns and an interception — grew to become MVP favourite for the primary time this season, exhibiting +250 odds at ESPN BET. Notably, Buffalo Payments QB Josh Allen entered Sunday's video games as the favourite (+185) to repeat for the award, whereas Maye was a second-place +400.
Throughout New England's successful streak, Maye has been DraftKings' most-backed participant by bets (20%) and deal with (19%) to win MVP.
That was earlier than Buffalo misplaced outright as an 8.5-point favourite to the Miami Dolphins, tied for the third-largest upset of the NFL season. At Caesars and ESPN BET, the sport was the most-bet by deal with within the early Sunday afternoon slate, with the latter noting that the Payments had been the most-backed money-line and unfold choice for the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. BetMGM advised ESPN that Miami pulling the upset “was a superb consequence for the sportsbook.”
Allen threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns but additionally misplaced an interception and a fumble — sufficient to not solely knock him off the highest of the MVP odds board, however ship him tumbling all the best way right down to fifth (+750), per ESPN BET odds.
Sunday's outcomes had a big effect on the Pats' and Payments' future as nicely. Most immediately, New England grew to become the AFC East favourite for the primary time since previous to Week 16 of the 2021 season, in line with ESPN Analysis, as they present -225 for the division at ESPN BET. Buffalo fell to +185, with the Dolphins and New York Jets means off within the distance at 500-1.
ESPN BET now has the Payments +900 (sixth) and the Patriots +1800 (tied for tenth) to win the Tremendous Bowl. Whereas New England has obtained extra championship consideration from bettors throughout their successful streak, sportsbooks do not see it as significantly vital, with BetMGM saying the Pats successful the Tremendous Bowl and/or AFC can be a “good consequence” for the guide.
“For AFC East, they're a loser [for the book]; nonetheless, when taking into consideration parlays on the divisions, we stay massive followers,” Caesars Sportsbook head of soccer Joey Feazel advised ESPN, noting that the Payments had been well-liked in preseason division winner parlays. “For the AFC, they continue to be a winner, purely as a result of preseason love for the Raiders, Steelers, Broncos and Chiefs.”
Even amid the turmoil inside the division, Buffalo remains to be the most-backed crew by deal with for the AFC East, and was the most-bet crew by cash for the Tremendous Bowl earlier than the season, in line with BetMGM information.
In the meantime, on the backside of the division, the Jets managed to drag off a small upset of their very own on Sunday, beating the Cleveland Browns outright as 2.5-point underdogs. New York had opened as a 1.5-point favourite, however the line flipped in the course of the week after the crew traded away All-Professional defenders Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the end result had minimal affect at Caesars, which reported it as its least-wagered sport of the 2025 NFL season.
Odds & Ends
Maye wasn't the one participant making MVP progress in Week 10. Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford commandeered second place available in the market after one other sturdy sport Sunday, exhibiting +325 at ESPN BET. Earlier within the day in Berlin, Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor posted probably the most PPR fantasy factors of the season (49.6), boosting him as much as a fourth-place +650 within the MVP market.
With Sunday's win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Colts grew to become the primary crew to go over their preseason win whole (7.5) this season.
The Carolina Panthers had been the most-picked crew in ESPN Eliminator Problem (19%), in addition to the $1,000 entry Circa Survivor contest (27.7%) earlier than they misplaced to the New Orleans Saints 17-7. Carolina has now misplaced 11 consecutive video games outright as a favourite, extending the longest such streak within the Tremendous Bowl period. Their 5.5-point favourite position Sunday was their largest over that interval, per ESPN Analysis.
The Houston Texans had been +2500 at their longest stay money-line throughout their divisional sport with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Houston scored 4 unanswered touchdowns within the fourth quarter to win the sport, the final of which — a fumble restoration rating on the ultimate play of the sport — allowed them to cowl the -2.5 closing unfold. “The Texans' comeback win was a kind of basic ‘unhealthy beat' moments for the guide,” stated Caesars' Feazel.
Feazel notes an uptick in curiosity on the Baltimore Ravens: “The Ravens have gotten a public darling with Lamar [Jackson] again in type. Their momentum is palpable, and it is no shock that they had been a giant win for purchasers.”
After 98 mixed “No Picks” within the first eight weeks of the season, there have now been zero missed alternatives up to now two weeks of the Circa Survivor contest. Going into Sunday, the implied worth per entry was $10,581, per Circa.
