Do not be shocked if … Drake Maye overtakes Patrick Mahomes as high QB

Every week within the NFL is its personal story — filled with surprises, each constructive and detrimental — and fantasy soccer managers should determine what to imagine and what to not imagine shifting ahead. Maybe we can assist. If any of those ideas come true … do not be shocked! NOTE: All point out of fantasy factors is for PPR codecs, until in any other case talked about.

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes enters Week 9 leading the position with almost 200 factors, and whereas it's good to throw to Rashee Rice, Mahomes was thriving earlier than Rice's season debut. Can something cease the Chiefs now? Nicely, they simply performed the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. Nonetheless to come back are highway video games towards the Buffalo Payments and Denver Broncos and residential video games with the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers and Broncos. This can be a problem.

To not make this all about schedule, however this unconventional take has some advantage. First, Maye is already third in PPR factors amongst quarterbacks, a smidge behind Jalen Hurts at 21.7 factors per recreation. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen common extra factors, however there's some danger with them. Jackson missed a bunch of video games with a hamstring damage, and worry of reinjury is actual, whereas Allen, environment friendly and efficient as a passer regardless of much less quantity these days, stays, as with Hurts, reliant on dashing touchdowns.

Maye has topped 20 factors in 4 of the previous 5 video games, and 5 of seven contests, and sure, he has accomplished so towards some underwhelming defenses such because the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans. The great half is, because of New England ending final within the AFC East final season, there are extra underwhelming defenses to come back! This week, the Patriots play the Atlanta Falcons, a workforce that ranks properly defensively, however simply bought shredded by struggling Tua Tagovailoa for 4 landing passes. Then it's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the New York Jets, the Cincinnati Bengals and later, throughout our fantasy playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens, the Jets once more and the Dolphins. These are groups that allow among the many most fantasy factors to QBs.

Not every little thing with the schedule is ideal. As with San Francisco 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey, Maye and the Patriots are on the bye in Week 14 in December, the primary playoff spherical for a lot of managers. That is ridiculous, in fact, that the NFL has bye weeks this late, however no matter. All of us should deal. Maye can not help us in Week 14, and maybe not a lot within the Payments rematch in Week 15 (he scored solely 12.12 factors versus Buffalo in Week 5), however the different weeks, get pleasure from it.

In fact, it is not simply the schedule. Maye actually has made nice strides. He leads QBs in completion charge and landing proportion on throws of at the least 20 yards. He's among the many leaders in passing yards, passing touchdowns, dashing yards for a QB and fantasy factors. It'd get even higher, making Maye maybe the very best discount of the top-scoring QBs for these searching for upgrades in trades.

Different QB ideas that should not shock:

• A few of you need to take a look at Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams throwing nary a landing move towards the New Orleans Saints and Ravens the previous fortnight and scream, or even perhaps transfer on. That might be a mistake. He faces the Bengals this week, then the New York Giants and the instantly susceptible Minnesota Vikings. Some would possibly worry Williams for the fantasy playoffs, with a pair of Inexperienced Bay Packers showdowns on the slate, however the Packers — regardless of Micah Parsons having fun with himself — allow 17.2 factors to quarterbacks, the twelfth most. Now is just not the time to punt Williams. Now could be the time to speculate.

• Denver's Bo Nix has accounted for eight of his 18 touchdowns over the previous two video games, which is nice, however he did so whereas dealing with the Giants and Dallas Cowboys. You recognize the place I am headed with this one. Nix stays inconsistent, and he'll probably disappoint many this week in a highway recreation towards Houston, by far the stingiest workforce for QBs to accrue fantasy factors towards. Nix nonetheless has a pair of video games with the Chiefs remaining, too. I feel he is extra streamer than somebody one should hold round throughout his Week 12 bye.

• We have to be involved about Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels making it via this season in a single piece. A lot of his worth comes from his working capability, however he has already missed video games with separate leg accidents (knee, hamstring) and it positive appears to be like as if the workforce cannot defend any QB correctly. The ultimate 4 video games are throughout the NFC East, however do the Commanders danger taking part in a compromised Daniels if they're 5-8 or 4-9 by then? They won't. Have a second QB rostered — and never Marcus Mariota — simply in case.

Do not be shocked if … Javonte Williams finishes second in dashing touchdowns

No, I didn't anticipate I might ever be typing these phrases, however regardless of how the Dallas offense seemed this previous week in Denver, this stays a prolific group, and never simply the Dak Prescott-led passing recreation. Williams has been held in examine in two of the previous three video games, dashing for less than 29 yards towards the Carolina Panthers and 41 yards vs. the Broncos, however when the workforce will get close to the aim line, he's the featured participant.

Williams already boasts eight dashing scores, doubling his earlier profession excessive. He is not catching MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor, however Josh Jacobs, with yet one more dashing rating, is in play. Williams is forward of James Prepare dinner and Derrick Henry. No person thought Williams can be talked about with these gamers, together with me, who ranked him poorly in August. Nevertheless, there are some “Josh Jacobs 2024” vibes, when he scored 16 touchdowns. Williams is pacing on this path.

Different RB ideas that should not shock:

• The NFL commerce deadline is subsequent Tuesday, Nov. 4, at 4 p.m. ET, and whilst you, the fantasy supervisor, may not care a lot since your ESPN buying and selling deadline is way later in November (Wednesday, Nov. 26, midday ET) and we all know you'll wait till that morning to make gives (do not wait!), at the present time would possibly matter fairly a bit. Why not get forward of it in case a key participant is moved? Maybe the Saints QB change to rookie Tyler Shough ignites RB Alvin Kamara, however most likely not. Whereas Kamara is fourth amongst working backs with 27 catches, he's sixteenth in receiving yards for the place, and with nary a landing seize. These catches go nowhere. Kamara has scored single-digit PPR factors in 4 of six video games. Put him on a contender and we'd have an RB1. Preserve him on the Saints and we'd not actually have a robust flex possibility.

• I do agree that Giants sophomore Tyrone Tracy Jr. must be the highest free agent pickup this week, and he needs to be near universally rostered, however have been we actually all that impressed with him final season? Might this be a timeshare with the equally common Devin Singletary and neither of them produces a lot fantasy worth? Assume Seattle Seahawks RBs, however not almost as productive. It is likely to be like Titans RBs. What a disgrace. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart should not have to guide the Giants in dashing yards this season, however that is still in play.

• I moved Panthers RB Rico Dowdle up in my Week 9 and rest-of-season rankings earlier than the Panthers admitted on Monday that maybe a timeshare is silly, as a result of it's fairly clear {that a} timeshare with Chuba Hubbard is precisely that. OK, so the Panthers aren't profitable the Tremendous Bowl, and so they need to be loyal to Hubbard, who signed a long-term deal, however c'mon. I can not be so daring as to foretell Dowdle can be an RB1 from right here on out, as a result of we do not even know whether or not there's room for Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry to be amongst that crew, however I certainly have been serious about it.

Do not be shocked if … Oronde Gadsden II threatens to guide Chargers' flex choices in PPR factors

A lot can go fallacious with this prediction, however QB Justin Herbert appears to like throwing passes to this rookie. It is one factor to make veteran WR Quentin Johnston irrelevant, which the fifth-round decide has accomplished along with his 22 targets in three weeks, many whereas he's open downfield. Johnston was “that man” in September. Gadsden ranks third amongst certified tight ends at 14.3 yards per reception (Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid), however that is deceptive, as a result of Gadsden's previous three video games have been so spectacular (59.9 PPR factors). Johnston is an afterthought on this offense. It does not imply he will not make a giant play this week or have a number of massive video games, however rostering Gadsden over Johnston is the transfer.

Why cease there? WR Keenan Allen averages 15 PPR factors per recreation, however he has been held to fewer than 11 PPR factors in 4 of 5 contests. It is a pattern, and never a constructive one. WR Ladd McConkey has been a WR1 possibility over the previous 4 video games, however he scored touchdowns in three of them. We are able to rely upon targets and catches, however not touchdowns. RB Kimani Vidal has been superior these days, for the reason that Omarion Hampton damage, however Hampton would possibly return in mid-November, too.

OK, so an affordable individual would anticipate McConkey to guide the Chargers in flex-eligible scoring, however Gadsden appears to be like mighty legit and a top-10 TE, too.

Different receiving ideas that should not shock:

• I might not assume Falcons WR Drake London (hip) is a secure WR2 anymore, so be cautious in trades. That is likely to be surprising contemplating everybody's August funding, however London has scored 56.8 of his 94.9 PPR factors this season in two video games towards the Commanders and Payments, and he has accomplished little within the different 4 video games. He missed Week 8 towards the Dolphins (as did QB Michael Penix Jr.), and the Falcons fell aside. London had 100 receptions for 1,271 yards and 9 touchdowns final season, principally with Kirk Cousins at QB. He isn't repeating these stats. A season just like 2023 is likely to be in play.

• It is unnecessary for the Titans to maintain WR Calvin Ridley (hamstring) round, even when they get little for him in commerce subsequent week. Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor are rookies, identical to QB Cam Ward, however not extremely touted ones from draft day. In actual fact, these receivers went on Day 3. No matter, maybe they will all develop collectively, however it's laborious to see how a veteran like Ridley with three 1,000-yard seasons to his credit score suits in anymore. Preserve Ridley rostered on the idea he performs with a greater, playoff-bound QB by subsequent week, however roster Dike first in deeper codecs.

• No person is dropping their fantasy league as a result of they invested a top-100 decide in disappointing Browns WR Jerry Jeudy, however he must be elsewhere, too. I dropped Jeudy final week, largely assured the transfer would not burn me in Week 8 towards the Patriots. Jeudy did not catch both of his two targets. QB Dillon Gabriel is not taking part in properly, and does not match with Jeudy's strengths, however nonetheless, what a catastrophe, with 6 PPR factors per recreation. The one Browns move catchers price rostering are the tight ends, and David Njoku needs to be elsewhere, too, as a result of Harold Fannin Jr. is healthier.

• Lastly, Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers requested a commerce earlier than the season, and he hasn't helped his trigger a lot in two months. This was a 1,000-yard receiver final season with terrible quarterback play. They've terrible quarterback play once more this season. Meyers would look higher on the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buccaneers, Patriots, Arizona Cardinals and maybe even the Giants.