If Donald Trump may trademark “peace,” he would. Forward of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement on October 10, the president is campaigning tougher for Oslo's approval than he ever did for Wisconsin's votes. His latest pitch? A “20-point Gaza peace plan” that he claims may finish one of many world's most intractable conflicts — and win him probably the most coveted medal not made in Mar-a-Lago.He calls it “the best peace deal of all time.” The Nobel Committee is unlikely to agree.
The Gospel of Self-Nomination
Trump's obsession with the Nobel isn't new. He's been demanding it for the reason that Abraham Accords, arguing that if Barack Obama bought one for “displaying up,” he ought to get a minimum of two for “saving the Center East.” This yr, although, his lobbying has gone full diplomatic theatre.On the UN, he declared that “everybody says I ought to get the Nobel Peace Prize.” Behind closed doorways, his envoy Steve Witkoff has been nudging European counterparts; Marco Rubio has been reminding allies; and Pfizer's Albert Bourla has even chimed in, praising Operation Warp Pace as Nobel-worthy. All the MAGA machine has become a PR company for peace — peace, in fact, outlined by Trump himself.
The Gaza Gambit
The timing of Trump's Gaza initiative will not be unintentional. Days earlier than the Nobel announcement, he unveiled a 20-point plan that supposedly ensures ceasefire, reconstruction, and hostage launch. Hamas agreed to free all captives however insisted the remaining “requires negotiation” — which, in diplomatic language, means “we'll see after the cameras go away.” For Trump, that's sufficient to promote it as a historic breakthrough. For the Nobel Committee, which prefers long-term stability to press-conference theatre, it's a more durable name.
Norway's Nervous Breakdown
The Norwegians discover themselves in an ungainly spot. Their $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund lately divested from Israeli companies, triggering fury amongst US Republicans. Trump has already slapped 15 % tariffs on Norwegian imports and will simply escalate if snubbed.
The Anti-Nordic Candidate
Nordic political tradition prizes understatement. Trump's whole persona is a federal crime in Norway. As Professor Hilde Restad notes, “Culturally, Trump may be very a lot an antithesis for Norway.” In easier phrases, you don't shout your option to a Peace Prize.But Trump's logic is pure branding: preserve shouting till somebody errors the noise for applause. Even when he loses, he wins the narrative — the sufferer of a “rigged Nobel,” wronged by “international elites,” and vindicated by “actual Individuals.”
The Nomination Community
This yr's 338 nominees embrace journalists' teams, Sudan's help volunteers, and Yulia Navalnaya. Trump's nomination got here courtesy of New York congresswoman Claudia Tenney, who has constructed a global help community lobbying for his win. Ukraine's Oleksandr Merezhko additionally nominated him — then withdrew, saying he'd “misplaced belief” after Trump ignored Russia's assaults on Kyiv.However withdrawals don't pattern on Reality Social.
Bookies, Bets, and Backchannels
On-line odds place Trump third, behind Navalnaya and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms. However Nobel betting is notoriously unreliable — final yr's favorite was Navalny himself, regardless of posthumous awards being banned.If he loses, count on a digital onslaught. If he wins, count on a victory rally that includes the phrase “best Nobel in historical past.” Both means, Trump's base will rejoice — as a result of in MAGA world, notion is coverage.
The Peace Prize Paradox
The Nobel Peace Prize has by no means been about peace alone; it's about symbolism. When Obama received, the committee wager on hope. When Liu Xiaobo received, it wager on defiance. When Trump lobbies, he bets on intimidation. The query for the Norwegian Nobel Committee is straightforward: reward the world's loudest salesman for a peace plan nonetheless in beta, or uphold its century-old superb of ethical independence. If Trump doesn't win, he'll name it faux. If he does, he'll name it future. Both means, come October 10, Oslo will as soon as once more show Alfred Nobel's best invention wasn't dynamite. It was irony.
