India's civil aviation sector is anticipated to develop steadily however at a modest tempo this monetary 12 months, with home passenger visitors more likely to broaden by 4–6 per cent in 2025-26, ranking company ICRA has mentioned. As per information company ANI, the company retained its “steady” outlook on the trade even because the April–October 2025 interval recorded 944.5 lakh home passengers, marking a year-on-year rise of 1.6 per cent.ICRA famous that progress would have been stronger had the sector not confronted a number of setbacks earlier within the 12 months. Cross-border tensions resulted in flight cancellations and operational disruptions, whereas the AI171 tragedy in June 2025 triggered journey hesitancy within the weeks that adopted, reported ANI. Commerce pressures arising from US tariffs are additionally anticipated to weigh on enterprise sentiment, doubtlessly slowing journey demand within the coming quarters.Additional disruption got here in November 2025, when Air Visitors Management points led to further cancellations. ICRA mentioned these would act as a “milder” drag on progress in contrast with earlier shocks.Worldwide passenger visitors for Indian carriers is projected to develop sooner, with ICRA estimating a 13–15 per cent rise in 2025-26. The company added that airline yields will want shut monitoring as a result of their dependence on aviation turbine gas (ATF) costs and the rupee–greenback alternate fee. ATF prices—accounting for 30–40 per cent of an airline's working bills—averaged Rs 95,181 per KL in 2024-25, round 8 per cent decrease year-on-year. Costs between April and November 2025 had been down by 6.5 per cent.Regardless of easing gas prices, ICRA expects the trade to put up a web lack of Rs 95–105 billion in 2025-26, in contrast with an estimated Rs 55 billion loss in 2024-25. The company mentioned losses would rise primarily as a result of slowing passenger progress coinciding with a rise in plane deliveries. Nevertheless, it pressured that these losses stay far decrease than the Rs 216 billion and Rs 179 billion recorded in 2021-22 and 2022-23.ICRA additionally highlighted uneven monetary well being throughout airways. Whereas some carriers profit from wholesome liquidity positions or backing from robust dad or mum firms, others proceed to face strain on each credit score metrics and money flows, regardless of gradual enchancment in recent times.
