Recreation 1 of the WNBA Finals lived as much as the pre-series hype, coming right down to the ultimate possession that additionally determined the betting consequence.
The Las Vegas Aces held on to defeat the Phoenix Mercury, 89-86, as the purpose unfold toggled between three and three.5 factors.
The Aces are once more three-point dwelling favorites in Recreation 2 with the entire now 164.5, after the collection opener flew over 161. That is the primary best-of-seven collection in league historical past.
I do assume the Mercury are pretty more likely to bounce again and play with extra desperation. I backed the underdog in Recreation 1 and lean that manner for this rematch.
Nonetheless, given the Aces didn't play that effectively and trailed practically your entire manner, I do assume there's a first rate likelihood they regress to the imply and play extra effectively and constantly. Thus, I'm specializing in prop bets.
A'ja Wilson is the league's finest participant and stays a drive on each ends.
Las Vegas understandably runs loads of offensive units by means of her and she or he nearly all the time delivers. Nonetheless, the props (25.5 factors and 11.5 rebounds) skew excessive due to that utilization and execution.
Beginning middle Natasha Mack is a succesful defender standing 6-foot-4 and her teammates do a strong job of collapsing and making issues troublesome for Wilson, which is all you possibly can ask.
The four-time MVP Wilson has confronted the Mercury 4 instances this season, together with the Finals. She solely surpassed 25.5 factors within the two video games she had double-digit free throw makes an attempt and went beneath when she spent much less time on the charity stripe.
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One other key variable for the Mercury and this prop is limiting Wilson's shot makes an attempt with assist protection. In every of the previous three conferences towards Phoenix, Wilson tried 16 photographs. The Mercury will possible proceed to prioritize forcing her to go out of double groups, which additionally retains them from fouling her.
I've a 68-53-2 ATS report on this Put up sports activities part and my subsequent play is Wilson Below 25.5 factors (-110, DraftKings) in Recreation 2.
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Doug Kezirian is a New York Put up contributor who has over 20 years of expertise within the betting area, together with spending 11 years at ESPN as a number, columnist and betting analyst. He's additionally the uncommon persona who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill School Soccer Problem ($58K) and in addition grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
