Jordan Reid
Certain, there are greater than 9 months till the 2026 NFL draft begins in Pittsburgh, however it's by no means too early to debate the No. 1 decide. And there is lots to speak about.
Final 12 months's journey to No. 1 noticed quarterback Cam Ward flip from a sleeper prospect to the unquestioned prime quarterback within the 2025 draft. Will we see one other QB come out of (virtually) nowhere to be the primary decide? Will one of many prime quarterbacks under get it? Will Arch Manning explode at Texas and be a part of his uncles as a No. 1 total decide? Or will a non-quarterback get the highest spot for the primary time since 2022?
I picked 14 gamers who may very well be that prime decide in Pittsburgh, including proportion odds for every participant. I am beginning with considered one of my favourite quarterbacks on this class, however do not overlook these at 1%. That is the place Ward was slated this time final 12 months.
Bounce to a tier:
Critical contenders (4)
Potential risers (3)
Lengthy pictures (7)
Critical contenders
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 15%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: NFL groups always fall in love with traits on the prime of the draft, and Sellers has a few of the greatest traits within the class. The 6-foot-3, 242-pound dual-threat quarterback can't solely beat defenses together with his highly effective arm (2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions as a 19-year-old redshirt freshman) but in addition together with his legs (674 speeding yards and 7 touchdowns).
Sellers confirmed drastic enchancment as a first-year starter, serving to the Gamecocks win six of their last seven video games final season. His 65.6% completion proportion was additionally encouraging contemplating his inexperience and factors to additional enchancment in 2025.
He typically throws passes which might be too scorching to deal with and holds the ball too lengthy within the pocket — his 3.06-second common time to throw was the eleventh slowest nationally in 2024. He'll additionally want to enhance his ball safety, as he fumbled 11 occasions (misplaced six) final season. But when Sellers can fine-tune this stuff and proceed his progress, he has the instruments to be the highest decide within the 2026 draft.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 15%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: I had Klubnik because the No. 1 decide in my Method-too-Early mock draft in Could and really feel he can make the most of arguably essentially the most gifted roster within the nation. He wasn't on many draft radars after a disappointing sophomore season in 2023, however Klubnik made a serious leap as a junior, ending with 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and solely six interceptions. He ended the season with a flourish, throwing for 336 yards and three touchdowns within the Faculty Soccer Playoff first spherical in opposition to Texas.
Klubnik is not massive (6-foot-2, 210 kilos), however he performs with a robust platform and progresses by means of reads rapidly. Irrespective of how muddy the pocket will get, he is capable of make powerful throws because of his stability, rhythm and repeatable mechanics. There may be debate about his arm energy amongst NFL evaluators, although.
“I believe he has sufficient to be a high quality starter on the following degree, however his setup will at all times must be close to good to get the most effective out of him,” an AFC government from a QB-needy workforce stated this summer time.
Klubnik is about as much as make one other leap, as Clemson returns its prime three receivers (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore). He'll have an opportunity to make an enormous impression early this season when the Tigers play LSU in Week 1.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 15%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Allar is a toolsy passer who took a serious leap in 2024 below new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, bettering his completion proportion from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5%. He has the dimensions (6-foot-5, 238 kilos) and powerful arm that scouts need and confirmed extra confidence in these bodily traits. He is not shy about utilizing his arm energy to check tight home windows and has good mobility for his dimension.
Regardless of Allar's progress final season, many scouts really feel he nonetheless must work on his ball placement. He'll be examined this season, as Penn State misplaced first-round tight finish Tyler Warren and has a number of new receivers that Allar must get acclimated to.
Evaluators additionally wish to see Allar carry out higher in massive video games, one thing he is struggled with in his two seasons as a starter. Video games in opposition to Oregon (Sept. 27) and Ohio State (Nov. 1) are paramount. If he can play extra like he did in opposition to Oregon within the Massive Ten championship sport final season (280 mixed yards and 4 touchdowns) and fewer like he did in opposition to Notre Dame within the CFP semifinals (12-for-23, 135 yards and a backbreaking late interception), Allar may very well be a top-10 decide … or greater.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 15%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Nussmeier carried out effectively final season in succeeding 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Nussmeier is a fearless passer who produces highlights together with his uncanny skill to see massive performs and throw his receivers open.
The 6-2, 200-pounder's arm is extra versatile than highly effective, however his nice pocket imaginative and prescient and anticipation on throws to intermediate and deep areas of the fields stand out. He would not take many sacks (his 2.9% sack proportion was twelfth lowest within the FBS), however will be reckless and put the ball in hurt's method — particularly after breaking the pocket. This confirmed in opposition to ranked groups, as he had three video games of two or extra interceptions in opposition to these opponents.
Whereas Nussmeier's aggressiveness can work in opposition to him, he has the smarts, accuracy and anticipation to be a prime decide within the draft. Scouts will wish to see extra consistency and the way he adjusts to a brand new set of receivers out of the switch portal. He'll be examined instantly in opposition to Clemson in Week 1.
Potential risers
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 12%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, the place he enters a quarterback-friendly offense. Kurtis Rourke transitioned from the MAC to Curt Cignetti's offense and was drafted within the seventh spherical of this previous draft. The ceiling for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza is even greater.
“I actually preferred Mendoza's tape,” an NFC space scout stated. “He is the one to circle that may very well be an even bigger riser, and Cignetti has a fantastic observe document with switch QBs.”
Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions and blends a robust arm with plus mobility for his dimension. He can stand and ship within the pocket with ease and is extraordinarily correct — his 5.1% off-target proportion final season was the most effective within the FBS. He additionally excelled throwing outdoors of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR. Typically he'll break the pocket prematurely as an alternative of permitting ideas to totally develop, so scouts wish to see him be extra affected person in these conditions.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 10%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Whereas quarterbacks are most frequently chosen with the No. 1 total decide, edge rushers seize the highest spot often. Travon Walker was the newest instance in 2022. The 6-3, 265-pound Parker is the most definitely non-quarterback to be chosen first, combining a great first step with sturdy arms to disengage on the level of assault.
These arms assist him win by overpowering blockers, and he completed his sophomore season with 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, second-most within the FBS amongst defensive linemen. He has additionally been a turnover creator, forcing 4 fumbles final season (additionally second within the FBS) and stands out in a loaded Clemson defensive entrance.
“I do know [defensive tackle Peter] Woods will get quite a lot of the love, however Parker is the one which may very well be drafted first off of that protection this 12 months,” an AFC assistant advised me this summer time.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 5%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: There's quite a lot of projection right here, as Manning has solely two begins and 95 passing makes an attempt in his school profession. Due to that, I do not consider Manning might be within the 2026 draft. However he has traits that would make him an intriguing possibility atop the draft if he has an enormous season.
The glimpses we noticed final season have been promising, as he threw for 939 yards, 9 touchdowns and two interceptions whereas speeding for 106 yards and 4 scores. At 6-4, 222 kilos, Manning has the body scouts covet and makes use of it successfully. He has a picture-perfect base and easy supply, and his dual-threat functionality forces defenses to account for his operating.
There may be lots for Manning to work on. He should turn out to be higher at progressing previous his first learn, as his tendency to stay to it results in unhealthy choices and compelled throws. He additionally wants to make use of his mobility extra and be extra keen to scramble on dropbacks. That is why I count on him to stay with Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, the most effective quarterback builders within the nation, and never rush to the NFL.
Lengthy pictures
The ‘out-of-nowhere' quarterback
Since Joe Burrow's magical 2019 season catapulted him to the highest within the 2020 draft, it has been frequent for under-the-radar quarterbacks to shoot up draft boards excessive into Spherical 1. Ward was considered one of 4 quarterbacks we recognized on this part a 12 months in the past. This time round, there are two passers with Day 3 grades who may rapidly rise.
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (2%): Mateer arrives at OU with excessive expectations after ending with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions at Washington State in 2024. He is some of the aggressive and assured passers I've studied on tape on this class and makes downfield throws with ease. Mateer can be cell, operating for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns final season. If he thrives in opposition to a schedule that has a Week 2 matchup with Michigan plus eight SEC video games, his inventory will rise.
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2%): Cam Skattebo received many of the consideration throughout Arizona State's huge turnaround final season, however Leavitt additionally performed an enormous half, passing for two,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions after transferring from Michigan State. He's a peaceful passer who can unfold and shred defenses. With Skattebo off to the NFL, Leavitt would be the focus of the Solar Devils' bid to repeat as Massive 12 champions.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 1%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Woods is presently the top-ranked participant on my board, and the 6-3, 315-pounder is the catalyst of one of many nation's greatest defenses. Nevertheless it's been 31 years since a defensive sort out was taken with the highest decide (Dan Wilkinson, 1994) and 6 years since an inside defensive lineman was picked within the prime 5 (Quinnen Williams, 2019).
Woods performed loads off the sting final season however stayed disruptive as a run defender. He had solely three sacks final season as a sophomore, however his explosive energy allowed him to penetrate the backfield as a move rusher. He'll get extra snaps inside this season as a 3-technique below new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. If he can convert extra move rushes into sacks, Woods may very well be a top-five decide come April.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 1%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Fano was essentially the most constant blocker on tape in 2024, which is why he is my top-rated offensive sort out. The 6-3, 302-pounder wants so as to add weight, however he has the quickness and fluidity to matchup with speedy edge rushers and the ability to bury defenders in run blocking.
Fano can be versatile, transitioning to proper sort out as a sophomore in 2024 and permitting just one sack after enjoying left sort out the season earlier than. If he can pack on kilos and keep his degree of depth and lower-half suddenness, he may very well be the primary sort out picked in a deep class of prospects.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 1%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Proctor has the dimensions (6-7, 360 kilos) to go very excessive within the draft, and his greatest tape is considered one of a top-10 decide. However he is a polarizing prospect due to his inconsistent play.
At his greatest, he has the ability and pop in his arms to rapidly overwhelm rushers on the level of assault. He is forceful within the run sport and generates motion with ease. His move safety is the place he wants enchancment, as there are cold and hot spurts in Proctor's play. Scouts wish to see him play to his potential extra as a move blocker. If he does, he may very well be the primary blocker off the board.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 1%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: World is the last word wild card on this train, because the 6-8, 312-pound sort out is stepping up in competitors after transferring from Nevada this offseason. However his traits are excellent. World is an above-average athlete and has foot quickness that's among the many better of any blocker within the 2026 class.
Scouts wish to see him put all his traits collectively. Though World did not enable a sack final season, he drew eight penalties (5 for holding, three for unsportsmanlike conduct). He should scale back the penalties whereas dealing with the bump up in competitors. If he can mix his fast toes together with his lower-half suddenness and flashes within the run sport, World might be a participant to look at early in Spherical 1.
Predicted likelihood of going No. 1: 1%
Why he may very well be the highest decide: Because the frequent draft period began in 1967, there hasn't been a security drafted with the No. 1 decide. That is a pattern that is more likely to proceed, however it says loads that Downs is considerably within the dialog.
The 6-foot, 205-pounder transferred from Alabama — the place he was stellar as a freshman in 2023 — to Ohio State final 12 months, serving to the Buckeyes to a nationwide championship. He had 77 tackles final season and is a wrap-up-and-finish tackler in opposition to the run. He additionally excels in protection, permitting solely 28.6% of passes to be accomplished in his protection (fifth-best within the FBS). Downs additionally has two landing returns in his profession.
