Mike Clay
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is across the nook. What higher strategy to increase (or mood) expectations than with an entire breakdown of predictions and projections?
Under is a information of what to anticipate as soon as the season kicks off Thursday — together with energy rankings of all 32 groups, an inventory of groups that can rating probably the most factors and defenses that can permit the fewest, and a have a look at the hardest and best schedules. We additionally make predictions for the playoffs and Tremendous Bowl LX.
Should you're searching for much more in-depth content material, test my rankings and assessments of the most effective and worst positional items throughout the league, in addition to my 80-page projections PDF.
Bounce forward to …
Schedule: Best | Hardest
Offense projections: Greatest | Worst
Protection projections: Greatest | Worst
Energy rankings | Tremendous Bowl decide
Best schedule
The 49ers are coming off a last-place end within the NFC West, however that set them up with the league's best projected 2025 schedule. They don't play any of the league's eight Tremendous Bowl favorites, per ESPN Wager odds (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Payments, Chiefs, Packers, Bengals, Commanders), and have many enticing matchups towards underwhelming NFC South and AFC South groups.
San Francisco's distinctive video games are versus the Bears, Giants and Browns — the latter two are projected to complete within the backside seven of the league, per ESPN's Soccer Energy Index. The Titans, Colts, Jaguars and Cardinals spherical out the top-five best schedules.
Hardest schedule
No shock right here, because the Lions are the defending champions of the powerful NFC North. Along with the six video games towards the Vikings, Packers and the improved Bears, the Lions will face NFC East and AFC North groups. Detroit's trio of distinctive video games can be about as onerous as you will get: Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams.
The excellent news for Detroit is that the remainder of the division (and several other No. 1-seed contenders) may even face a tricky slate. The Eagles, Vikings, Giants and Browns spherical out the top-five hardest schedules.
Projected highest-scoring groups
The Payments have not led the NFL in scoring since 1990, however they have been shut throughout the Josh Allen period, rating no decrease than sixth every of the previous 5 seasons (top-three 4 instances). This season, the reigning NFL MVP is about up with a strong (and maybe improved) supporting forged, led by RB James Prepare dinner, WR Khalil Shakir, second-year WR Keon Coleman, TE Dalton Kincaid and newcomer WR Joshua Palmer.
2. Baltimore Ravens, 473 factors
3. Philadelphia Eagles, 452 factors
Projected lowest-scoring groups
The Browns have been final in scoring in 2024 and have not completed higher than tenth since 2007. They need to be a robust wager to complete at or close to the underside in 2025, particularly with a lot uncertainty at quarterback (some mixture of Joe Flacco, third-round decide Dillon Gabriel and fifth-round decide Shedeur Sanders). Moreover, the once-elite offensive line is not nearly as good as years previous, and there are not any established needle-moving go catchers behind WR Jerry Jeudy and TE David Njoku.
2. New Orleans Saints, 314 factors
3. New York Giants, 332 factors
Projected defenses to permit the fewest factors
Although the Texans ranked in the midst of the pack in factors allowed final season, their protection completed prime 5 in sacks (49) and compelled turnovers (29). They have been additionally first in go rush win fee (48.7%). 13 of the unit's prime 14 gamers who received probably the most snaps return this season, together with standout edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, security Jalen Pitre and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
2. Denver Broncos, 357 factors
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 358 factors
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Projected defenses to permit probably the most factors
The Cowboys allowed the second-most factors final season, and that was with Micah Parsons for 13 video games. Parsons was traded to Inexperienced Bay on Thursday for defensive sort out Kenny Clark and two first-round picks. Linebacker Eric Kendricks, nickel nook Jourdan Lewis and edge rusher Chauncey Golston are additionally gone.
Sprinkle in just a few lingering accidents (together with prime linebacker DeMarvion Overshown), and the Cowboys have the shakiest protection within the league. Dealing with the Eagles and Commanders twice will solely increase their factors allowed.
2. Las Vegas Raiders, 428 factors
3. Carolina Panthers, 427 factors
Staff-by-team rankings
Asterisks point out my projected playoff groups.
This crew has all of it: an elite coach in John Harbaugh, maybe the league's greatest QB in two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, a terrific offensive supporting forged (led by RB Derrick Henry, WR Zay Flowers, TE Mark Andrews, OT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum) and a terrific protection that returns 10 of its prime 11 snap-getters from 2024 (together with stars in S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey, LB Roquan Smith and DT Nnamdi Madubuike). Additionally they strengthened their secondary by signing cornerback Jaire Alexander.
We already mentioned Buffalo's stellar offensive outlook, however Sean McDermott's protection deserves some love, as nicely. Led by edge rusher Greg Rousseau, nook Christian Benford, defensive sort out Ed Oliver and new edge rusher Joey Bosa, this needs to be a strong unit. The Payments are outfitted for an additional run at a title.
Accidents decimated the Lions' protection in 2024, which led to a fast playoff exit after a dominant 15-2 common season. The departures of coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, in addition to new gamers on the inside offensive line, create notable uncertainties. However Detroit's roster remains to be stacked with expertise. I count on the Lions to contend for the highest NFC seed once more regardless of projecting them to have the hardest schedule.
The reigning Tremendous Bowl champions took a success on protection throughout the offseason, shedding edge Brandon Graham, cornerback Darius Slay, edge Josh Sweat, defensive sort out Milton Williams and security C.J. Gardner-Johnson. However at its worst, this crew is strong on paper due to its elite offense with RB Saquon Barkley, QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown. The Eagles have a authentic shot to repeat.
Maybe the Chiefs are headed for some regression after that they had so many shut wins final season however suffered a shellacking towards the Eagles for the title. However it's onerous to doubt a franchise that has reached 5 of the previous six Tremendous Bowls, together with three in a row. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes seems to have extra offensive help this season, even with extensive receiver Rashee Rice being suspended for the primary six video games. Their robust protection additionally returns 13 of its prime 15 snap-getters from 2024.
Tampa Bay has discovered its franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield and he'll have one of many league's prime supporting casts, which now contains first-round extensive receiver Emeka Egbuka. The protection nonetheless has considerations at sure positions, however the unit could be adequate to present the Bucs a shot at their fifth consecutive division title and sixth straight journey to the postseason.
Sean Payton turned Denver right into a playoff crew final season, and he'll have a fair higher squad on paper this season. A protection led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Participant of the 12 months, and defensive sort out Zach Allen is excellent, and it added extra playmakers in two former 49ers (LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga). Second-year QB Bo Nix will profit from a terrific offensive line and skill-position upgrades like tight finish Evan Engram.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford's again damage may derail issues, however the Rams have constructed one in every of their greatest rosters in a number of years. They struck gold with edge rusher Jared Verse, the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the 12 months, and we all know they're well-coached underneath Sean McVay. On offense, they changed extensive receiver Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams, who tied for fifteenth in ESPN's open receiver score final season.
The Vikings stay elite in lots of areas, together with offensive line, go catchers (led by WR Justin Jefferson) and protection (a unit that features defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave). The massive query, after all, is how nicely quarterback J.J. McCarthy performs after the 2024 first-round decide missed his rookie season due to a knee damage.
The Packers are strong on either side of the ball, and the offense might be even higher with improved targets, together with first-round receiver Matthew Golden, and a totally wholesome QB in Jordan Love. The blockbuster commerce for edge rusher Micah Parsons revamps their line of defense and might be sufficient to cement Inexperienced Bay as a playoff contender.
Second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels seems to be the actual deal and may carry this crew far, particularly with extra veterans on offense, similar to left sort out Laremy Tunsil and extensive receiver Deebo Samuel. The protection stays a significant crimson flag, however defensive mastermind Dan Quinn may once more coach it into a reliable unit.
The Bengals have missed the playoffs in back-to-back years regardless of successful nine-plus video games in 4 consecutive seasons. It is onerous to think about a crew that has quarterback Joe Burrow and extensive receiver Ja'Marr Chase (each within the prime 10 of our prime 100 gamers) lacking the postseason once more, however large questions loom alongside the offensive line and protection.
The Bears are one of many league's most fascinating groups. New coach/offensive mastermind Ben Johnson will look to get probably the most out of second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, who will take pleasure in a terrific younger group of go catchers and a much-improved offensive line. The protection is, at worst, strong and helps give Chicago a legit shot on the postseason.
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Shedding elite left sort out Rashawn Slater for the season is brutal, and the Chargers' protection definitely has a number of regarding areas — the unit ranked within the backside 10 at linebacker and cornerback in my positional group rankings. Nonetheless, the Justin Herbert-led offense seems to be good, and Jim Harbaugh's report speaks for itself (55-25-1 in 5 seasons as an NFL head coach).
A T.J. Watt-led protection that added cornerback Jalen Ramsey this offseason is probably the league's greatest on paper, however the huge query is how a lot the crew will get out of 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers could not transfer the needle for a proficient Jets roster final season, and this offensive supporting forged is under common. Mike Tomlin's management ought to hold this crew within the wild-card combine, although.
AFC sleeper alert! The Patriots are significantly better in practically all areas in contrast with final season. After ending with the fewest sacks within the NFL final season (28), the protection improved by signing DT Milton Williams, edge Harold Landry III, LB Robert Spillane and CB Carlton Davis III. Second-year QB Drake Maye may have extensive receiver Stefon Diggs and rookie operating again TreVeyon Henderson as choices. And Mike Vrabel changed Jerod Mayo as head coach.
Houston stays the favourite within the AFC South, with an aforementioned terrific protection and a strong offense. There are some lingering offensive line considerations, because the unit may have 4 new starters this season, however third-year QB C.J. Stroud and standout wideout Nico Collins give this crew a better flooring.
NFC sleeper alert! Jonathan Gannon's protection is way improved after investing closely up entrance. The Cardinals signed edge Josh Sweat, together with defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell in free company. And within the draft, they took defensive sort out Walter Nolen III within the first spherical, although he'll begin the season on the reserve/PUP record due to a calf concern. The Kyler Murray-led offense may be higher if extensive receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. makes a 12 months 2 leap.
As normal, Kyle Shanahan's offense figures to be superb, however accidents at extensive receiver are already piling up — the 49ers aren't certain if Jauan Jennings might be obtainable for Week 1. The massive crimson flag here's a protection that had many notable departures, leaving the 49ers with huge considerations at defensive sort out, nook and security. Edge rusher Nick Bosa and new coordinator Robert Saleh may have their work reduce out for them.
Quarterback apart, the Colts arguably have a top-10 roster. The protection seems to be fairly good (cornerback Charvarius Ward and security Cam Bynum have been much-needed upgrades within the secondary), and the offense contains a number of difference-makers (RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith and first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren). If new beginning QB Daniel Jones may give the crew considerably competent play, the Colts may shock the league.
Mike McDonald's protection seems to be to have the league's greatest inside line, together with Leonard Williams, second-year Byron Murphy II and Jarran Reed. The offense is extra of a wild card, as new quarterback Sam Darnold might want to maintain his improved play from 2024. Extensive receiver Cooper Kupp and operating again Kenneth Walker III might want to keep wholesome, too.
With Tua Tagovailoa underneath middle, the Dolphins' offense has a ton of upside, however it additionally struggled to benefit from receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle final season. The offensive line is regarding. The protection is even shakier, particularly with all 5 secondary starters from 2024 gone and little completed to exchange them. There's additionally uncertainty at edge rusher after Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips missed many of the previous two seasons. This can be a career-defining yr for coach Mike McDaniel.
The Falcons' protection completed with the second-fewest sacks final season (31), however there's potential for a step ahead if first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. are the actual deal. The offense has a a lot brighter outlook, however second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. began solely three video games final season and threw an interception in each. He has a very good supporting forged, led by WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson and a top quality line, however Penix will want a 12 months 2 leap for Atlanta to enter the playoff dialogue.
Dallas' offseason had extra headlines than impression additions. A wholesome Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb duo might be a giant increase in the appropriate path, however an offensive line already battling accidents is not what it was just a few years in the past. The protection additionally has to determine its identification with out Micah Parsons on the sting.
The Giants have clear weak spots, however there's potential for them to outperform this rating. The protection is quietly superb on paper after the additions of cornerback Paulson Adebo, security Jevon Holland and first-round edge rusher Abdul Carter to a gaggle that already included DT Dexter Lawrence II, edge Brian Burns and LB Bobby Okereke. The offense, led by WR Malik Nabers, has questions alongside the road, however competent QB play from Russell Wilson or first-round decide Jaxson Dart can get this crew into the wild-card dialogue.
The Jets fumbled away a stacked roster final season, and the outlook would not seem shiny now. A protection that features DT Quinnen Williams, edge Jermaine Johnson and CB Sauce Gardner needs to be above common, however an offense led by quarterback Justin Fields and unproven ability gamers past extensive receiver Garrett Wilson figures to be very restricted.
The Jaguars drafted one of many league's most attention-grabbing gamers in Travis Hunter, however the rookie might be hard-pressed to make up for this roster's voids at extensive receiver and cornerback. Little (no pun supposed, Walker Little) was completed to deal with maybe the league's shakiest offensive line, which places added stress on quarterback Trevor Lawrence underneath new coach Liam Coen. The protection needs to be strong, with edge Josh Hines-Allen, LB Foyesade Oluokun and CB Tyson Campbell among the many impression gamers.
The Titans are getting into a brand new period with No. 1 general decide Cam Ward at quarterback. Tennessee improved its offensive line, however rising pains are possible and the ability positions are nonetheless a piece in progress. And apart from the good defensive sort out duo of Jeffery Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat, the protection would not have a lot for opponents to concern.
Quarterback Bryce Younger began to point out some life late final season and one other step ahead would be the key to Carolina outproducing this rating. He'll have a greater supporting forged after the crew chosen extensive receiver Tetairoa McMillan within the first spherical. However the league's worst scoring protection in 2024 may nonetheless be shaky — the return to well being for star defensive sort out Derrick Brown might be a giant assist.
Maybe Pete Carroll can coach this crew out of the basement, however even with the additions of QB Geno Smith and RB Ashton Jeanty on offense and the presence of edge Maxx Crosby on an in any other case shaky protection, this roster has too many weak factors. I had them ranked final at extensive receiver and thirtieth general in my positional group rankings.
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The Browns' protection took an enormous step again final season and now seems to be like a bottom-10 unit on paper (even with edge rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward). The offense is in flux and won't enhance till Cleveland takes one other flier on a franchise quarterback within the 2026 draft.
Derek Carr's sudden retirement cemented this one, as Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough should step up at quarterback this season. If that is not sufficient, the cornerback group is likely to be shakiest within the NFL, and there are age and/or damage considerations with RB Alvin Kamara, LB Demario Davis, edge Cameron Jordan, WR Chris Olave and TE Taysom Hill.
Tremendous Bowl LX prediction: Ravens over Lions
It is no secret that the Ravens have but to register a Tremendous Bowl look throughout the Lamar Jackson period (or since 2012), however that might change this season. Baltimore has maybe its greatest roster on paper because it defeated the 49ers in Tremendous Bowl XLVII, sitting at No. 1 in my general positional group rankings.
The Lions have been the most effective crew within the NFL final season earlier than being derailed by a ridiculous stretch of defensive accidents. Now (principally) wholesome, they've a very good shot to fend off the defending champion Eagles within the NFC playoffs, reaching their first Tremendous Bowl in franchise historical past.
